Richmond upon Thames: wards that bucked the trend
Richmond upon Thames: in 2018, 35 ward results beat the expected swing and 30 trailed it. The biggest gap was Green in Ham Petersham & Richmond Riverside (+13.0 pts actual vs -1.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Ham Petersham & Richmond Riverside | Green | +13.0 pts | -1.5 pts | +14.5 pts |
| 2018 | Ham Petersham & Richmond Riverside | Liberal Democrats | +0.7 pts | +14.9 pts | -14.2 pts |
| 2018 | Hampton Wick | Conservative | -20.6 pts | -7.4 pts | -13.2 pts |
| 2018 | East Sheen | Liberal Democrats | +25.2 pts | +14.9 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2018 | Fulwell & Hampton Hill | Liberal Democrats | +5.3 pts | +14.9 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2018 | Hampton North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.6 pts | -3.7 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2018 | Hampton Wick | Green | +7.0 pts | -1.5 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2018 | South Twickenham | Green | +7.0 pts | -1.5 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2018 | Heathfield | Labour | +5.9 pts | -2.1 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2018 | Twickenham Riverside | Liberal Democrats | +22.4 pts | +14.9 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2018 | Hampton | Conservative | -0.2 pts | -7.4 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2018 | Hampton Wick | Liberal Democrats | +21.7 pts | +14.9 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2018 | Barnes | Liberal Democrats | +8.2 pts | +14.9 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2018 | South Richmond | Green | +4.8 pts | -1.5 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2018 | Barnes | Green | +4.7 pts | -1.5 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2018 | Hampton North | Conservative | -1.3 pts | -7.4 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2018 | East Sheen | Conservative | -13.5 pts | -7.4 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2018 | West Twickenham | Labour | +4.0 pts | -2.1 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2018 | Hampton Wick | Labour | -8.1 pts | -2.1 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2018 | Whitton | Independent | -6.5 pts | -0.6 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2018 | South Richmond | Liberal Democrats | +9.0 pts | +14.9 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2018 | Mortlake & Barnes Common | Liberal Democrats | +20.7 pts | +14.9 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2018 | North Richmond | Labour | +3.4 pts | -2.1 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2018 | South Twickenham | Labour | -7.4 pts | -2.1 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2018 | South Twickenham | Conservative | -12.6 pts | -7.4 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2018 | Ham Petersham & Richmond Riverside | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -7.4 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2018 | Mortlake & Barnes Common | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -7.4 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2018 | Heathfield | Liberal Democrats | +9.9 pts | +14.9 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2018 | St Margarets & North Twickenham | Labour | +2.6 pts | -2.1 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2018 | Whitton | Liberal Democrats | +19.6 pts | +14.9 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2018 | Barnes | Labour | -6.8 pts | -2.1 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2018 | Kew | Liberal Democrats | +19.1 pts | +14.9 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2018 | East Sheen | Labour | -6.2 pts | -2.1 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2018 | Fulwell & Hampton Hill | Green | +2.5 pts | -1.5 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2018 | Whitton | Conservative | -3.4 pts | -7.4 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2018 | Twickenham Riverside | Conservative | -11.0 pts | -7.4 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2018 | West Twickenham | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.3 pts | -3.7 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Hampton North | Labour | +1.3 pts | -2.1 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2018 | St Margarets & North Twickenham | Conservative | -10.4 pts | -7.4 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2018 | North Richmond | Liberal Democrats | +12.3 pts | +14.9 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2018 | Teddington | Liberal Democrats | +17.3 pts | +14.9 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2018 | Fulwell & Hampton Hill | Conservative | -5.1 pts | -7.4 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Twickenham Riverside | Labour | -4.3 pts | -2.1 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Hampton | Labour | -4.3 pts | -2.1 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2018 | South Richmond | Labour | -4.0 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Heathfield | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.6 pts | -3.7 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Kew | Conservative | -9.3 pts | -7.4 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2018 | South Twickenham | Liberal Democrats | +13.0 pts | +14.9 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2018 | North Richmond | Conservative | -5.5 pts | -7.4 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Hampton North | Liberal Democrats | +16.5 pts | +14.9 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2018 | South Richmond | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.3 pts | -3.7 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Whitton | Labour | -0.8 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Kew | Labour | -3.4 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Teddington | Labour | -3.3 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Barnes | Conservative | -6.3 pts | -7.4 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2018 | Teddington | Conservative | -6.4 pts | -7.4 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2018 | West Twickenham | Conservative | -6.7 pts | -7.4 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2018 | Fulwell & Hampton Hill | Labour | -2.7 pts | -2.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2018 | Heathfield | Conservative | -6.8 pts | -7.4 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2018 | St Margarets & North Twickenham | Liberal Democrats | +15.4 pts | +14.9 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Hampton | Liberal Democrats | +14.5 pts | +14.9 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Mortlake & Barnes Common | Labour | -2.4 pts | -2.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2018 | West Twickenham | Liberal Democrats | +15.2 pts | +14.9 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2018 | South Richmond | Conservative | -7.5 pts | -7.4 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Ham Petersham & Richmond Riverside | Labour | -2.0 pts | -2.1 pts | +0.1 pts |