Rochford: wards that bucked the trend
Rochford: in 2024, 17 ward results beat the expected swing and 21 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Hullbridge (-58.5 pts actual vs +3.1 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Hullbridge | Independent | -58.5 pts | +3.1 pts | -61.5 pts |
| 2024 | Hullbridge | Conservative | +33.5 pts | -1.1 pts | +34.6 pts |
| 2024 | Hawkwell West | Rochford District Residents | +28.3 pts | -3.9 pts | +32.2 pts |
| 2024 | Hockley | Rochford District Residents | -31.4 pts | -3.9 pts | -27.4 pts |
| 2024 | Hullbridge | Labour | +25.0 pts | +2.6 pts | +22.4 pts |
| 2024 | Hawkwell East | Rochford District Residents | -25.4 pts | -3.9 pts | -21.5 pts |
| 2024 | Foulness and The Wakerings | Conservative | -18.8 pts | -1.1 pts | -17.8 pts |
| 2024 | Wheatley | Liberal Democrats | -23.2 pts | -6.3 pts | -16.9 pts |
| 2024 | Foulness and The Wakerings | Labour | -9.6 pts | +2.6 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2024 | Roche North & Rural | Green | -11.3 pts | -1.3 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2024 | Roche North & Rural | Liberal Democrats | -16.2 pts | -6.3 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2024 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Conservative | +8.2 pts | -1.1 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2024 | Hawkwell East | Green | -10.3 pts | -1.3 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2024 | Roche South | Labour | +11.2 pts | +2.6 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2024 | Hockley | Labour | -6.0 pts | +2.6 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2024 | Downhall and Rawreth | Conservative | +6.6 pts | -1.1 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2024 | Wheatley | Labour | +9.2 pts | +2.6 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2024 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Labour | +7.6 pts | +2.6 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2024 | Downhall and Rawreth | Labour | +6.5 pts | +2.6 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2024 | Hawkwell East | Conservative | -4.8 pts | -1.1 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2024 | Hockley | Conservative | -4.6 pts | -1.1 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2024 | Wheatley | Conservative | -4.2 pts | -1.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2024 | Trinity | Conservative | +1.7 pts | -1.1 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2024 | Roche South | Green | -4.0 pts | -1.3 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2024 | Foulness and The Wakerings | Liberal Democrats | -9.0 pts | -6.3 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2024 | Hawkwell East | Labour | +0.0 pts | +2.6 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2024 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Green | +1.1 pts | -1.3 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2024 | Downhall and Rawreth | Liberal Democrats | -8.5 pts | -6.3 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2024 | Roche North & Rural | Labour | +0.9 pts | +2.6 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2024 | Lodge | Conservative | +0.5 pts | -1.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2024 | Trinity | Labour | +3.9 pts | +2.6 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2024 | Hawkwell West | Labour | +3.5 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2024 | Sweyne Park and Grange | Conservative | -1.9 pts | -1.1 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2024 | Trinity | Liberal Democrats | -5.6 pts | -6.3 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2024 | Hawkwell West | Conservative | -1.7 pts | -1.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2024 | Roche South | Conservative | -0.4 pts | -1.1 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2024 | Roche South | Liberal Democrats | -6.8 pts | -6.3 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2024 | Roche North & Rural | Conservative | -0.9 pts | -1.1 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2023 | Roche North & Rural | Liberal Democrats | -11.6 pts | +5.6 pts | -17.2 pts |
| 2023 | Hawkwell West | Conservative | -20.9 pts | -6.5 pts | -14.4 pts |
| 2023 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Liberal Democrats | -8.2 pts | +5.6 pts | -13.9 pts |
| 2023 | Foulness and The Wakerings | Conservative | -17.9 pts | -6.5 pts | -11.4 pts |
| 2023 | Trinity | Conservative | +3.7 pts | -6.5 pts | +10.2 pts |
| 2023 | Wheatley | Liberal Democrats | +14.7 pts | +5.6 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2023 | Lodge | Conservative | +1.9 pts | -6.5 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2023 | Trinity | Liberal Democrats | -2.5 pts | +5.6 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2023 | Wheatley | Conservative | +0.3 pts | -6.5 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2023 | Roche North & Rural | Conservative | -13.2 pts | -6.5 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2023 | Lodge | Labour | +6.1 pts | -0.1 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2023 | Foulness and The Wakerings | Labour | +5.2 pts | -0.1 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2023 | Sweyne Park and Grange | Conservative | -1.2 pts | -6.5 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2023 | Roche North & Rural | Labour | +5.2 pts | -0.1 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2023 | Roche South | Labour | +4.8 pts | -0.1 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2023 | Hawkwell East | Labour | -4.9 pts | -0.1 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2023 | Downhall and Rawreth | Liberal Democrats | +1.1 pts | +5.6 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2023 | Roche South | Conservative | -2.8 pts | -6.5 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2023 | Hawkwell West | RES | -22.1 pts | -18.6 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Hullbridge | Conservative | -3.7 pts | -6.5 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2023 | Wheatley | Labour | +2.1 pts | -0.1 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2023 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Conservative | -8.7 pts | -6.5 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2023 | Hockley | Labour | +1.9 pts | -0.1 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2023 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Labour | +1.7 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2023 | Downhall and Rawreth | Conservative | -5.0 pts | -6.5 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2023 | Hawkwell East | Conservative | -7.9 pts | -6.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2023 | Hawkwell West | Labour | +1.2 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2023 | Hockley | Conservative | -7.7 pts | -6.5 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2023 | Trinity | Labour | -1.2 pts | -0.1 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Hullbridge | Labour | -0.8 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2023 | Downhall and Rawreth | Labour | -0.8 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Roche North & Rural | Liberal Democrats | +26.6 pts | +2.7 pts | +23.9 pts |
| 2022 | Hawkwell West | RES | -10.9 pts | +6.4 pts | -17.3 pts |
| 2022 | Lodge | Conservative | -21.2 pts | -6.8 pts | -14.4 pts |
| 2022 | Trinity | Liberal Democrats | +16.7 pts | +2.7 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2022 | Hawkwell West | Conservative | +7.1 pts | -6.8 pts | +13.9 pts |
| 2022 | Foulness and The Wakerings | Conservative | +5.9 pts | -6.8 pts | +12.7 pts |
| 2022 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Liberal Democrats | +14.7 pts | +2.7 pts | +12.0 pts |
| 2022 | Lodge | RES | +17.4 pts | +6.4 pts | +11.0 pts |
| 2022 | Wheatley | Liberal Democrats | +12.8 pts | +2.7 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2022 | Hullbridge | Conservative | +2.2 pts | -6.8 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2022 | Hockley & Ashingdon | RES | -2.5 pts | +6.4 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2022 | Hawkwell East | RES | -1.7 pts | +6.4 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2022 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Conservative | -14.7 pts | -6.8 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2022 | Wheatley | Independent | -9.6 pts | -2.4 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2022 | Sweyne Park and Grange | Conservative | -13.7 pts | -6.8 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2022 | Trinity | Conservative | -13.5 pts | -6.8 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2022 | Trinity | Labour | -3.2 pts | +3.2 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2022 | Hockley | Conservative | -13.1 pts | -6.8 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2022 | Roche North & Rural | Conservative | -0.9 pts | -6.8 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2022 | Hawkwell East | Labour | +8.8 pts | +3.2 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2022 | Roche South | RES | +1.0 pts | +6.4 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2022 | Roche South | Labour | +8.0 pts | +3.2 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2022 | Sweyne Park and Grange | Labour | +6.9 pts | +3.2 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2022 | Hockley | RES | +9.8 pts | +6.4 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2022 | Roche South | Conservative | -3.5 pts | -6.8 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2022 | Wheatley | Conservative | -3.7 pts | -6.8 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Foulness and The Wakerings | Labour | +6.2 pts | +3.2 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Downhall and Rawreth | Labour | +0.2 pts | +3.2 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Roche North & Rural | Labour | +6.1 pts | +3.2 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2022 | Wheatley | Labour | +0.4 pts | +3.2 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Labour | +0.5 pts | +3.2 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Downhall and Rawreth | Liberal Democrats | +5.0 pts | +2.7 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Hullbridge | Labour | +5.0 pts | +3.2 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Downhall and Rawreth | Conservative | -5.2 pts | -6.8 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Lodge | Labour | +3.8 pts | +3.2 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Hawkwell West | Labour | +3.8 pts | +3.2 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Sweyne Park and Grange | RES | +6.8 pts | +6.4 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Hawkwell East | Conservative | -7.1 pts | -6.8 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Hockley | Labour | +3.3 pts | +3.2 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Liberal Democrats | -18.5 pts | +1.9 pts | -20.4 pts |
| 2021 | Trinity | Liberal Democrats | +20.7 pts | +1.9 pts | +18.7 pts |
| 2021 | Sweyne Park and Grange | Conservative | -7.3 pts | +7.0 pts | -14.4 pts |
| 2021 | Trinity | Conservative | -6.6 pts | +7.0 pts | -13.6 pts |
| 2021 | Wheatley | Conservative | -6.6 pts | +7.0 pts | -13.6 pts |
| 2021 | Wheatley | Independent | -14.6 pts | -2.0 pts | -12.6 pts |
| 2021 | Roche North & Rural | Labour | -10.2 pts | +0.1 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2021 | Downhall and Rawreth | Liberal Democrats | -8.1 pts | +1.9 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2021 | Hockley | Conservative | +16.5 pts | +7.0 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2021 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Independent | -10.8 pts | -2.0 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2021 | Hawkwell East | Conservative | -1.7 pts | +7.0 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2021 | Roche South | Liberal Democrats | -6.3 pts | +1.9 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2021 | Lodge | Conservative | +14.9 pts | +7.0 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2021 | Roche South | Labour | -7.5 pts | +0.1 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2021 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Conservative | +14.3 pts | +7.0 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2021 | Wheatley | Labour | -5.4 pts | +0.1 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2021 | Hullbridge | Labour | +4.6 pts | +0.1 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Hawkwell West | Conservative | +2.7 pts | +7.0 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2021 | Hullbridge | Conservative | +10.4 pts | +7.0 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Trinity | Labour | +2.7 pts | +0.1 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Hawkwell East | Labour | -2.0 pts | +0.1 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Labour | +2.1 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Sweyne Park and Grange | Labour | -1.4 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Hockley | Labour | +1.3 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Lodge | Labour | -0.9 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Roche South | Conservative | +7.5 pts | +7.0 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Downhall and Rawreth | Conservative | +7.5 pts | +7.0 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Downhall and Rawreth | Labour | +0.6 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Roche North & Rural | Conservative | +6.7 pts | +7.0 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Hawkwell West | Labour | -0.0 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2019 | Hockley | Rochford District Residents | +29.4 pts | +1.5 pts | +27.9 pts |
| 2019 | Wheatley | Conservative | -25.5 pts | -10.6 pts | -14.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hockley | Conservative | -24.0 pts | -10.6 pts | -13.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hawkwell East | Conservative | +1.6 pts | -10.6 pts | +12.3 pts |
| 2019 | Sweyne Park and Grange | Conservative | +0.6 pts | -10.6 pts | +11.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hullbridge | Green | +12.0 pts | +3.7 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Roche South | Conservative | -5.0 pts | -10.6 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Downhall and Rawreth | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -10.6 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Downhall and Rawreth | Liberal Democrats | +6.1 pts | +1.7 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Trinity | Labour | -5.9 pts | -1.9 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Wheatley | Labour | -5.4 pts | -1.9 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Sweyne Park and Grange | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Trinity | Conservative | -13.1 pts | -10.6 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hawkwell West | Conservative | -8.3 pts | -10.6 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Roche North & Rural | Labour | -4.2 pts | -1.9 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Sweyne Park and Grange | Labour | +0.2 pts | -1.9 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Hockley | Labour | -4.0 pts | -1.9 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Hawkwell West | Labour | -3.7 pts | -1.9 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Lodge | Conservative | -9.1 pts | -10.6 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Downhall and Rawreth | Labour | -0.6 pts | -1.9 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Roche North & Rural | Conservative | -9.5 pts | -10.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Hullbridge | Conservative | -9.8 pts | -10.6 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Trinity | Liberal Democrats | +2.3 pts | +1.7 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Labour | -1.4 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Conservative | -10.2 pts | -10.6 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hullbridge | Labour | -2.2 pts | -1.9 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hawkwell East | Labour | -1.7 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Roche South | Labour | -2.0 pts | -1.9 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Conservative | -38.0 pts | +2.7 pts | -40.7 pts |
| 2018 | Hawkwell East | Conservative | -20.8 pts | +2.7 pts | -23.6 pts |
| 2018 | Sweyne Park and Grange | Liberal Democrats | +22.0 pts | +2.6 pts | +19.4 pts |
| 2018 | Foulness and The Wakerings | Conservative | +17.6 pts | +2.7 pts | +14.9 pts |
| 2018 | Roche South | Labour | -9.4 pts | +0.3 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2018 | Wheatley | Labour | +9.5 pts | +0.3 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2018 | Hawkwell West | Conservative | +10.9 pts | +2.7 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2018 | Downhall and Rawreth | Liberal Democrats | -5.3 pts | +2.6 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2018 | Hullbridge | Green | +6.2 pts | -0.8 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2018 | Hullbridge | Conservative | +9.6 pts | +2.7 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2018 | Lodge | Conservative | -3.9 pts | +2.7 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2018 | Trinity | Labour | +6.3 pts | +0.3 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2018 | Roche North & Rural | Labour | -5.5 pts | +0.3 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2018 | Wheatley | Conservative | +8.3 pts | +2.7 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2018 | Hockley & Ashingdon | Labour | -5.1 pts | +0.3 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2018 | Downhall and Rawreth | Labour | +5.4 pts | +0.3 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2018 | Hullbridge | Labour | -4.3 pts | +0.3 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2018 | Wheatley | Liberal Democrats | +7.1 pts | +2.6 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2018 | Downhall and Rawreth | Conservative | +6.5 pts | +2.7 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2018 | Hockley | Labour | +4.0 pts | +0.3 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2018 | Roche North & Rural | Conservative | +6.0 pts | +2.7 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2018 | Sweyne Park and Grange | Conservative | -0.4 pts | +2.7 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2018 | Hawkwell East | Labour | +3.3 pts | +0.3 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Hockley | Conservative | +4.9 pts | +2.7 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Hawkwell West | Labour | +2.3 pts | +0.3 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Sweyne Park and Grange | Labour | +2.0 pts | +0.3 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Roche South | Conservative | +1.5 pts | +2.7 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Trinity | Conservative | +3.9 pts | +2.7 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Foulness and The Wakerings | Independent | -1.1 pts | -0.2 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Foulness and The Wakerings | Labour | +1.3 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.9 pts |