Rossendale: wards that bucked the trend
Rossendale: in 2023, 14 ward results beat the expected swing and 11 trailed it. The biggest gap was Green in Whitewell (+27.4 pts actual vs +1.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Whitewell | Green | +27.4 pts | +1.2 pts | +26.2 pts |
| 2023 | Greensclough | Conservative | +23.3 pts | -1.8 pts | +25.2 pts |
| 2023 | Greensclough | Green | -18.0 pts | +1.2 pts | -19.2 pts |
| 2023 | Irwell | Green | -12.6 pts | +1.2 pts | -13.8 pts |
| 2023 | Irwell | Labour | +8.7 pts | -3.8 pts | +12.5 pts |
| 2023 | Irwell | Conservative | -11.4 pts | -1.8 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2023 | Healey & Whitworth | Conservative | -10.4 pts | -1.8 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2023 | Whitewell | Conservative | -9.9 pts | -1.8 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2023 | Helmshore | Conservative | +5.2 pts | -1.8 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2023 | Helmshore | Green | -5.5 pts | +1.2 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2023 | Hareholme | Labour | +2.0 pts | -3.8 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2023 | Worsley | Labour | +1.8 pts | -3.8 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2023 | Greenfield | Conservative | -7.2 pts | -1.8 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2023 | Helmshore | Labour | +1.3 pts | -3.8 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2023 | Longholme | Labour | +0.9 pts | -3.8 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2023 | Greenfield | Green | +5.7 pts | +1.2 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2023 | Stacksteads | Conservative | +1.0 pts | -1.8 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2023 | Hareholme | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -1.8 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2023 | Longholme | Conservative | -4.0 pts | -1.8 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2023 | Longholme | Green | +3.1 pts | +1.2 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2023 | Stacksteads | Labour | -2.4 pts | -3.8 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Hareholme | Green | +2.3 pts | +1.2 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Worsley | Conservative | -2.8 pts | -1.8 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2023 | Worsley | Green | +1.0 pts | +1.2 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2023 | Stacksteads | Green | +1.3 pts | +1.2 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2019 | Stacksteads | Labour | -38.3 pts | +0.5 pts | -38.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hareholme | Labour | +18.7 pts | +0.5 pts | +18.2 pts |
| 2019 | Healey & Whitworth | Community First | +16.3 pts | +0.3 pts | +15.9 pts |
| 2019 | Healey & Whitworth | Conservative | +10.4 pts | -4.8 pts | +15.2 pts |
| 2019 | Whitewell | Conservative | -19.8 pts | -4.8 pts | -15.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hareholme | Conservative | -18.7 pts | -4.8 pts | -13.9 pts |
| 2019 | Whitewell | Labour | -11.2 pts | +0.5 pts | -11.7 pts |
| 2019 | Stacksteads | Conservative | -16.1 pts | -4.8 pts | -11.3 pts |
| 2019 | Helmshore | Conservative | +5.3 pts | -4.8 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2019 | Greensclough | Conservative | +5.2 pts | -4.8 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2019 | Irwell | Conservative | +5.1 pts | -4.8 pts | +9.9 pts |
| 2019 | Helmshore | Labour | -5.3 pts | +0.5 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Greensclough | Labour | -5.2 pts | +0.5 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Healey & Whitworth | Labour | +6.0 pts | +0.5 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2019 | Longholme | Conservative | +0.0 pts | -4.8 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2019 | Worsley | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -4.8 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Greenfield | Labour | +3.3 pts | +0.5 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Greenfield | Conservative | -3.3 pts | -4.8 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Irwell | Labour | -0.5 pts | +0.5 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Longholme | Labour | -0.0 pts | +0.5 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Worsley | Labour | +0.9 pts | +0.5 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Hareholme | Labour | +16.6 pts | -0.7 pts | +17.3 pts |
| 2018 | EDEN | Labour | -17.9 pts | -0.7 pts | -17.3 pts |
| 2018 | EDEN | Conservative | +17.9 pts | +7.9 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2018 | Worsley | Conservative | -1.9 pts | +7.9 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2018 | Greensclough | Labour | -10.4 pts | -0.7 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2018 | Goodshaw | Conservative | +17.4 pts | +7.9 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2018 | Hareholme | Conservative | +16.7 pts | +7.9 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2018 | Helmshore | Labour | +7.3 pts | -0.7 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2018 | Greenfield | Conservative | +14.7 pts | +7.9 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2018 | Goodshaw | Labour | -7.3 pts | -0.7 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2018 | Irwell | Labour | -6.6 pts | -0.7 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2018 | Longholme | Conservative | +13.4 pts | +7.9 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2018 | Longholme | Labour | +3.7 pts | -0.7 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2018 | Irwell | Conservative | +12.2 pts | +7.9 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Helmshore | Conservative | +4.9 pts | +7.9 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2018 | Worsley | Labour | +2.2 pts | -0.7 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Greensclough | Conservative | +10.4 pts | +7.9 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Whitewell | Conservative | +10.0 pts | +7.9 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Whitewell | Labour | -0.2 pts | -0.7 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Greenfield | Labour | -0.4 pts | -0.7 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2016 | Hareholme | Labour | -3.9 pts | +9.3 pts | -13.2 pts |
| 2016 | Whitewell | Conservative | +10.6 pts | +0.5 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2016 | Cribden | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.0 pts | -9.8 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2016 | Greenfield | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.2 pts | -9.8 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2016 | Greensclough | Labour | +18.7 pts | +9.3 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2016 | Longholme | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.5 pts | -9.8 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2016 | Facit And Shawforth | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.5 pts | -9.8 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2016 | Cribden | Conservative | -7.2 pts | +0.5 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2016 | Hareholme | Conservative | -5.8 pts | +0.5 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2016 | Worsley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.8 pts | -9.8 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2016 | Whitewell | Green | +3.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2016 | Longholme | Conservative | -4.7 pts | +0.5 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2016 | Irwell | Conservative | -4.4 pts | +0.5 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2016 | Worsley | Labour | +4.7 pts | +9.3 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2016 | Irwell | Labour | +13.1 pts | +9.3 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2016 | Greensclough | Conservative | +4.2 pts | +0.5 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2016 | Cribden | Labour | +6.3 pts | +9.3 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2016 | Cribden | Green | +0.8 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2016 | Helmshore | Labour | +6.5 pts | +9.3 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2016 | Facit And Shawforth | Labour | +11.8 pts | +9.3 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2016 | Greenfield | Conservative | -1.8 pts | +0.5 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2016 | Helmshore | Conservative | -1.8 pts | +0.5 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2016 | Whitewell | Labour | +11.1 pts | +9.3 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2016 | Greenfield | Labour | +7.5 pts | +9.3 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2016 | Longholme | Labour | +10.7 pts | +9.3 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2016 | Worsley | Conservative | -0.9 pts | +0.5 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2016 | Facit And Shawforth | Conservative | +1.1 pts | +0.5 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2015 | Helmshore | Conservative | -46.5 pts | +0.2 pts | -46.7 pts |
| 2015 | Longholme | Labour | -24.9 pts | +0.5 pts | -25.4 pts |
| 2015 | Longholme | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -18.1 pts | -1.4 pts | -16.7 pts |
| 2015 | Stacksteads | Conservative | +16.6 pts | +0.2 pts | +16.4 pts |
| 2015 | Irwell | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -17.3 pts | -1.4 pts | -15.9 pts |
| 2015 | Greenfield | Conservative | -15.6 pts | +0.2 pts | -15.9 pts |
| 2015 | Healey & Whitworth | Conservative | +12.4 pts | +0.2 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2015 | Stacksteads | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.3 pts | -1.4 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2015 | Irwell | Conservative | +8.7 pts | +0.2 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2015 | Whitewell | Conservative | -7.8 pts | +0.2 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2015 | Whitewell | Liberal Democrats | -6.9 pts | -0.1 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2015 | Worsley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.0 pts | -1.4 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2015 | Hareholme | Conservative | +6.7 pts | +0.2 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2015 | Healey & Whitworth | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.2 pts | -1.4 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2015 | Worsley | Conservative | +5.9 pts | +0.2 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2015 | Hareholme | Labour | -4.4 pts | +0.5 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2015 | Stacksteads | Labour | -4.3 pts | +0.5 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2015 | Greenfield | Labour | -4.3 pts | +0.5 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2015 | Whitewell | Labour | -4.3 pts | +0.5 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2015 | Irwell | Labour | +3.9 pts | +0.5 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2015 | Greensclough | Labour | +3.5 pts | +0.5 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2015 | Greensclough | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.0 pts | -1.4 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2015 | Worsley | Labour | +2.1 pts | +0.5 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2015 | Hareholme | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.3 pts | -1.4 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2015 | Greensclough | Conservative | -0.5 pts | +0.2 pts | -0.7 pts |