Psephology.AI

    Rugby: wards that bucked the trend

    Rugby: in 2024, 26 ward results beat the expected swing and 26 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Dunsmore (+17.4 pts actual vs -0.2 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Rugby: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2024DunsmoreLiberal Democrats+17.4 pts-0.2 pts+17.6 pts
    2024Coton & BoughtonLabour-13.8 pts+0.0 pts-13.9 pts
    2024EastlandsLiberal Democrats-13.0 pts-0.2 pts-12.8 pts
    2024PaddoxLiberal Democrats-12.6 pts-0.2 pts-12.4 pts
    2024Admirals and CawstonConservative-15.1 pts-3.1 pts-12.0 pts
    2024DunsmoreLabour-9.3 pts-0.8 pts-8.4 pts
    2024PaddoxLabour+8.1 pts+0.0 pts+8.1 pts
    2024Coton & BoughtonConservative+3.7 pts-3.1 pts+6.8 pts
    2024Newbold & BrownsoverLabour-6.7 pts+0.0 pts-6.7 pts
    2024EastlandsLabour+5.1 pts+0.0 pts+5.0 pts
    2024BiltonConservative+1.9 pts-3.1 pts+5.0 pts
    2024Newbold & BrownsoverGreen+5.0 pts+0.6 pts+4.5 pts
    2024Wolston and the LawfordsConservative-7.1 pts-3.1 pts-4.0 pts
    2024Wolston and the LawfordsLabour+3.6 pts+0.0 pts+3.6 pts
    2024EastlandsConservative+0.1 pts-3.1 pts+3.2 pts
    2024DunsmoreConservative-6.3 pts-3.1 pts-3.2 pts
    2024Revel and Binley WoodsConservative+0.0 pts-3.1 pts+3.1 pts
    2024Newbold & BrownsoverLiberal Democrats-2.7 pts-0.2 pts-2.5 pts
    2024HillmortonConservative-0.6 pts-3.1 pts+2.5 pts
    2024New BiltonLiberal Democrats-2.6 pts-0.2 pts-2.5 pts
    2024New BiltonLabour+2.5 pts+0.0 pts+2.4 pts
    2024DunsmoreGreen-1.8 pts+0.6 pts-2.4 pts
    2024Rokeby and OversladeLiberal Democrats+2.2 pts-0.2 pts+2.4 pts
    2024Admirals and CawstonLabour+2.3 pts+0.0 pts+2.2 pts
    2024Coton & BoughtonLiberal Democrats+1.9 pts-0.2 pts+2.1 pts
    2024Rokeby and OversladeConservative-1.1 pts-3.1 pts+2.0 pts
    2024BennLabour+1.9 pts+0.0 pts+1.9 pts
    2024New BiltonConservative-1.4 pts-3.1 pts+1.7 pts
    2024Newbold & BrownsoverConservative-4.7 pts-3.1 pts-1.6 pts
    2024Wolston and the LawfordsGreen-1.0 pts+0.6 pts-1.5 pts
    2024HillmortonLiberal Democrats+1.3 pts-0.2 pts+1.5 pts
    2024Revel and Binley WoodsLabour+1.6 pts+0.0 pts+1.5 pts
    2024Admirals and CawstonLiberal Democrats+1.2 pts-0.2 pts+1.4 pts
    2024PaddoxGreen-0.7 pts+0.6 pts-1.3 pts
    2024Coton & BoughtonGreen+1.9 pts+0.6 pts+1.3 pts
    2024Revel and Binley WoodsGreen-0.6 pts+0.6 pts-1.2 pts
    2024BiltonLabour-1.1 pts+0.0 pts-1.1 pts
    2024PaddoxConservative-2.1 pts-3.1 pts+1.0 pts
    2024New BiltonGreen+1.6 pts+0.6 pts+1.0 pts
    2024Rokeby and OversladeLabour-0.9 pts+0.0 pts-1.0 pts
    2024HillmortonGreen-0.3 pts+0.6 pts-0.9 pts
    2024Revel and Binley WoodsLiberal Democrats-0.9 pts-0.2 pts-0.7 pts
    2024Rokeby and OversladeGreen-0.1 pts+0.6 pts-0.7 pts
    2024BiltonLiberal Democrats-0.9 pts-0.2 pts-0.7 pts
    2024BennGreen+1.2 pts+0.6 pts+0.6 pts
    2024Wolston and the LawfordsLiberal Democrats-0.8 pts-0.2 pts-0.6 pts
    2024HillmortonLabour-0.4 pts+0.0 pts-0.5 pts
    2024BiltonGreen+0.1 pts+0.6 pts-0.5 pts
    2024EastlandsGreen+0.2 pts+0.6 pts-0.3 pts
    2024BennConservative-3.0 pts-3.1 pts+0.1 pts
    2024Admirals and CawstonGreen+0.5 pts+0.6 pts-0.1 pts
    2024BennLiberal Democrats-0.2 pts-0.2 pts+0.0 pts
    2023Coton & BoughtonLabour+20.2 pts+0.5 pts+19.6 pts
    2023DunsmoreLiberal Democrats-12.0 pts-1.4 pts-10.6 pts
    2023Admirals and CawstonConservative+7.2 pts-3.0 pts+10.2 pts
    2023Coton & BoughtonConservative-12.8 pts-3.0 pts-9.8 pts
    2023Revel and Binley WoodsLabour-8.5 pts+0.5 pts-9.1 pts
    2023New BiltonGreen-6.5 pts+0.8 pts-7.3 pts
    2023BennGreen-6.3 pts+0.8 pts-7.2 pts
    2023Admirals and CawstonLabour-6.2 pts+0.5 pts-6.7 pts
    2023Rokeby and OversladeLiberal Democrats-8.1 pts-1.4 pts-6.7 pts
    2023HillmortonLiberal Democrats-6.9 pts-1.4 pts-5.6 pts
    2023BiltonLabour+5.2 pts+0.5 pts+4.7 pts
    2023Coton & BoughtonLiberal Democrats-6.0 pts-1.4 pts-4.6 pts
    2023Newbold & BrownsoverGreen-3.7 pts+0.8 pts-4.5 pts
    2023Coton & BoughtonGreen-3.6 pts+0.8 pts-4.4 pts
    2023Newbold & BrownsoverLabour-3.8 pts+0.5 pts-4.4 pts
    2023PaddoxLiberal Democrats+2.9 pts-1.4 pts+4.3 pts
    2023Newbold & BrownsoverConservative+0.4 pts-3.0 pts+3.4 pts
    2023Wolston and the LawfordsConservative-6.3 pts-3.0 pts-3.3 pts
    2023Wolston and the LawfordsLabour+3.6 pts+0.5 pts+3.0 pts
    2023Rokeby and OversladeConservative+0.0 pts-3.0 pts+3.0 pts
    2023Wolston and the LawfordsGreen-1.8 pts+0.8 pts-2.6 pts
    2023HillmortonLabour+3.0 pts+0.5 pts+2.5 pts
    2023BiltonLiberal Democrats+1.1 pts-1.4 pts+2.5 pts
    2023BiltonConservative-5.2 pts-3.0 pts-2.3 pts
    2023Rokeby and OversladeLabour+2.5 pts+0.5 pts+1.9 pts
    2023BiltonGreen-1.1 pts+0.8 pts-1.9 pts
    2023DunsmoreConservative-4.8 pts-3.0 pts-1.8 pts
    2023BennConservative-1.2 pts-3.0 pts+1.8 pts
    2023HillmortonConservative-1.2 pts-3.0 pts+1.8 pts
    2023EastlandsConservative-1.4 pts-3.0 pts+1.6 pts
    2023EastlandsLabour+2.0 pts+0.5 pts+1.5 pts
    2023EastlandsGreen-0.4 pts+0.8 pts-1.3 pts
    2023EastlandsLiberal Democrats-0.2 pts-1.4 pts+1.2 pts
    2023Admirals and CawstonGreen-0.3 pts+0.8 pts-1.1 pts
    2023Wolston and the LawfordsLiberal Democrats-0.3 pts-1.4 pts+1.1 pts
    2023PaddoxGreen+0.1 pts+0.8 pts-0.7 pts
    2023Admirals and CawstonLiberal Democrats-0.7 pts-1.4 pts+0.7 pts
    2023BennLabour-0.1 pts+0.5 pts-0.6 pts
    2023PaddoxLabour+0.1 pts+0.5 pts-0.5 pts
    2023Revel and Binley WoodsConservative-2.7 pts-3.0 pts+0.3 pts
    2023New BiltonLabour+0.4 pts+0.5 pts-0.1 pts
    2023PaddoxConservative-3.1 pts-3.0 pts-0.1 pts
    2023New BiltonConservative-3.0 pts-3.0 pts-0.0 pts
    2019BennGreen+18.8 pts+3.2 pts+15.6 pts
    2019PaddoxLabour+6.2 pts-5.6 pts+11.8 pts
    2019Coton & BoughtonConservative-18.1 pts-6.8 pts-11.3 pts
    2019BennLabour-16.8 pts-5.6 pts-11.2 pts
    2019Wolston and the LawfordsGreen+14.0 pts+3.2 pts+10.8 pts
    2019Admirals and CawstonConservative+1.7 pts-6.8 pts+8.6 pts
    2019HillmortonConservative+0.3 pts-6.8 pts+7.1 pts
    2019New BiltonLabour-12.2 pts-5.6 pts-6.6 pts
    2019Revel and Binley WoodsConservative-0.2 pts-6.8 pts+6.6 pts
    2019BiltonLiberal Democrats+13.2 pts+6.8 pts+6.4 pts
    2019DunsmoreConservative-13.2 pts-6.8 pts-6.4 pts
    2019HillmortonLabour-11.8 pts-5.6 pts-6.2 pts
    2019Coton & BoughtonLabour-11.7 pts-5.6 pts-6.1 pts
    2019Revel and Binley WoodsLabour+0.2 pts-5.6 pts+5.8 pts
    2019BennLiberal Democrats+1.0 pts+6.8 pts-5.8 pts
    2019PaddoxConservative-12.0 pts-6.8 pts-5.2 pts
    2019New BiltonConservative-11.8 pts-6.8 pts-5.0 pts
    2019Rokeby and OversladeLiberal Democrats+10.7 pts+6.8 pts+3.9 pts
    2019PaddoxLiberal Democrats+3.0 pts+6.8 pts-3.8 pts
    2019EastlandsConservative-10.1 pts-6.8 pts-3.3 pts
    2019DunsmoreLabour-8.8 pts-5.6 pts-3.2 pts
    2019HillmortonGreen+6.4 pts+3.2 pts+3.2 pts
    2019Rokeby and OversladeLabour-2.8 pts-5.6 pts+2.8 pts
    2019Wolston and the LawfordsConservative-4.1 pts-6.8 pts+2.7 pts
    2019EastlandsLiberal Democrats+4.5 pts+6.8 pts-2.3 pts
    2019Rokeby and OversladeConservative-4.5 pts-6.8 pts+2.3 pts
    2019EastlandsGreen+1.4 pts+3.2 pts-1.9 pts
    2019BiltonConservative-5.0 pts-6.8 pts+1.9 pts
    2019Newbold & BrownsoverGreen+5.1 pts+3.2 pts+1.8 pts
    2019Admirals and CawstonLabour-3.8 pts-5.6 pts+1.8 pts
    2019HillmortonLiberal Democrats+5.1 pts+6.8 pts-1.7 pts
    2019BiltonLabour-4.0 pts-5.6 pts+1.6 pts
    2019New BiltonGreen+4.6 pts+3.2 pts+1.4 pts
    2019New BiltonLiberal Democrats+5.8 pts+6.8 pts-1.0 pts
    2019Newbold & BrownsoverConservative-6.0 pts-6.8 pts+0.8 pts
    2019BennConservative-6.3 pts-6.8 pts+0.6 pts
    2019PaddoxGreen+2.8 pts+3.2 pts-0.4 pts
    2019Wolston and the LawfordsLabour-6.0 pts-5.6 pts-0.4 pts
    2019Newbold & BrownsoverLabour-5.3 pts-5.6 pts+0.3 pts
    2019Admirals and CawstonLiberal Democrats+6.9 pts+6.8 pts+0.1 pts
    2019EastlandsLabour-5.7 pts-5.6 pts-0.1 pts
    2016DunsmoreIndependent+38.2 pts+4.4 pts+33.8 pts
    2016DunsmoreConservative-27.8 pts-6.8 pts-20.9 pts
    2016EastlandsLiberal Democrats+21.5 pts+5.6 pts+15.9 pts
    2016Wolston and the LawfordsConservative+8.8 pts-6.8 pts+15.7 pts
    2016BennLabour+12.4 pts+1.2 pts+11.2 pts
    2016BiltonConservative+3.7 pts-6.8 pts+10.6 pts
    2016New BiltonLabour+11.4 pts+1.2 pts+10.1 pts
    2016Rokeby and OversladeLiberal Democrats+14.5 pts+5.6 pts+8.9 pts
    2016Newbold & BrownsoverGreen+6.0 pts-2.9 pts+8.9 pts
    2016Revel and Binley WoodsConservative+1.5 pts-6.8 pts+8.3 pts
    2016HillmortonLiberal Democrats-2.6 pts+5.6 pts-8.2 pts
    2016BiltonLabour-6.9 pts+1.2 pts-8.1 pts
    2016Revel and Binley WoodsUK Independence Party (UKIP)+4.9 pts-2.3 pts+7.3 pts
    2016Newbold & BrownsoverConservative+0.0 pts-6.8 pts+6.9 pts
    2016DunsmoreLabour-4.9 pts+1.2 pts-6.1 pts
    2016New BiltonConservative-1.0 pts-6.8 pts+5.8 pts
    2016PaddoxLabour-4.4 pts+1.2 pts-5.6 pts
    2016Admirals and CawstonLiberal Democrats+0.5 pts+5.6 pts-5.1 pts
    2016HillmortonLabour+6.3 pts+1.2 pts+5.1 pts
    2016BiltonUK Independence Party (UKIP)+2.3 pts-2.3 pts+4.7 pts
    2016Wolston and the LawfordsGreen+1.8 pts-2.9 pts+4.7 pts
    2016EastlandsConservative-11.4 pts-6.8 pts-4.6 pts
    2016Rokeby and OversladeLabour-3.4 pts+1.2 pts-4.6 pts
    2016Newbold & BrownsoverLabour+5.7 pts+1.2 pts+4.5 pts
    2016EastlandsLabour-3.3 pts+1.2 pts-4.5 pts
    2016Admirals and CawstonLabour+5.6 pts+1.2 pts+4.4 pts
    2016Wolston and the LawfordsTUSC+4.7 pts+0.6 pts+4.0 pts
    2016Coton & BoughtonConservative-2.9 pts-6.8 pts+4.0 pts
    2016New BiltonGreen+1.0 pts-2.9 pts+3.9 pts
    2016Rokeby and OversladeConservative-10.7 pts-6.8 pts-3.9 pts
    2016Coton & BoughtonUK Independence Party (UKIP)+1.4 pts-2.3 pts+3.8 pts
    2016BennLiberal Democrats+1.9 pts+5.6 pts-3.7 pts
    2016Coton & BoughtonLiberal Democrats+1.9 pts+5.6 pts-3.7 pts
    2016Coton & BoughtonLabour+4.7 pts+1.2 pts+3.5 pts
    2016PaddoxConservative-10.3 pts-6.8 pts-3.5 pts
    2016BiltonLiberal Democrats+2.2 pts+5.6 pts-3.4 pts
    2016HillmortonConservative-3.6 pts-6.8 pts+3.2 pts
    2016New BiltonTUSC+3.7 pts+0.6 pts+3.1 pts
    2016BennConservative-9.7 pts-6.8 pts-2.8 pts
    2016HillmortonGreen-0.1 pts-2.9 pts+2.8 pts
    2016HillmortonUK Independence Party (UKIP)+0.1 pts-2.3 pts+2.4 pts
    2016Admirals and CawstonConservative-4.5 pts-6.8 pts+2.3 pts
    2016PaddoxGreen-0.7 pts-2.9 pts+2.2 pts
    2016BiltonGreen-0.7 pts-2.9 pts+2.1 pts
    2016BennUK Independence Party (UKIP)-0.4 pts-2.3 pts+1.9 pts
    2016PaddoxLiberal Democrats+4.4 pts+5.6 pts-1.2 pts
    2016EastlandsGreen-3.9 pts-2.9 pts-1.1 pts
    2016Wolston and the LawfordsLabour+2.2 pts+1.2 pts+1.0 pts
    2016Revel and Binley WoodsLabour+0.3 pts+1.2 pts-1.0 pts
    2016BennGreen-2.0 pts-2.9 pts+0.9 pts
    2016EastlandsTUSC+0.0 pts+0.6 pts-0.6 pts
    2016EastlandsUK Independence Party (UKIP)-2.9 pts-2.3 pts-0.5 pts
    2016Rokeby and OversladeGreen-2.4 pts-2.9 pts+0.4 pts
    2015Wolston and the LawfordsUK Independence Party (UKIP)-11.3 pts+2.3 pts-13.6 pts
    2015Revel and Binley WoodsUK Independence Party (UKIP)-9.4 pts+2.3 pts-11.7 pts
    2015New BiltonGreen-13.4 pts-2.6 pts-10.8 pts
    2015Newbold & BrownsoverGreen-12.7 pts-2.6 pts-10.0 pts
    2015Coton & BoughtonUK Independence Party (UKIP)-7.5 pts+2.3 pts-9.8 pts
    2015BiltonConservative-3.8 pts+5.7 pts-9.5 pts
    2015DunsmoreIndependent-10.5 pts-1.4 pts-9.2 pts
    2015Admirals and CawstonConservative+14.1 pts+5.7 pts+8.5 pts
    2015New BiltonLabour-9.1 pts-1.4 pts-7.7 pts
    2015Admirals and CawstonLiberal Democrats+5.6 pts-1.6 pts+7.2 pts
    2015BennLabour-8.3 pts-1.4 pts-6.9 pts
    2015Wolston and the LawfordsLabour+5.5 pts-1.4 pts+6.8 pts
    2015Rokeby and OversladeLiberal Democrats-7.5 pts-1.6 pts-5.8 pts
    2015Admirals and CawstonGreen+2.6 pts-2.6 pts+5.3 pts
    2015HillmortonLiberal Democrats-6.7 pts-1.6 pts-5.1 pts
    2015New BiltonConservative+0.8 pts+5.7 pts-4.8 pts
    2015HillmortonGreen-7.4 pts-2.6 pts-4.7 pts
    2015DunsmoreLabour+3.3 pts-1.4 pts+4.7 pts
    2015BiltonLiberal Democrats+3.0 pts-1.6 pts+4.6 pts
    2015Rokeby and OversladeLabour+2.8 pts-1.4 pts+4.2 pts
    2015PaddoxLiberal Democrats-5.5 pts-1.6 pts-3.9 pts
    2015EastlandsLiberal Democrats-5.5 pts-1.6 pts-3.8 pts
    2015HillmortonLabour-5.2 pts-1.4 pts-3.8 pts
    2015HillmortonConservative+2.0 pts+5.7 pts-3.7 pts
    2015DunsmoreGreen+1.0 pts-2.6 pts+3.6 pts
    2015BennTUSC-4.5 pts-0.9 pts-3.6 pts
    2015Rokeby and OversladeGreen+0.9 pts-2.6 pts+3.5 pts
    2015BiltonTUSC-4.2 pts-0.9 pts-3.2 pts
    2015Wolston and the LawfordsConservative+8.7 pts+5.7 pts+3.1 pts
    2015Revel and Binley WoodsConservative+8.7 pts+5.7 pts+3.1 pts
    2015Revel and Binley WoodsLabour+1.5 pts-1.4 pts+2.9 pts
    2015EastlandsConservative+2.9 pts+5.7 pts-2.8 pts
    2015EastlandsTUSC-3.5 pts-0.9 pts-2.6 pts
    2015Newbold & BrownsoverConservative+3.5 pts+5.7 pts-2.2 pts
    2015Newbold & BrownsoverLabour-3.5 pts-1.4 pts-2.1 pts
    2015BiltonGreen-4.7 pts-2.6 pts-2.1 pts
    2015BiltonLabour-3.4 pts-1.4 pts-2.0 pts
    2015Admirals and CawstonLabour+0.6 pts-1.4 pts+2.0 pts
    2015Revel and Binley WoodsGreen-0.8 pts-2.6 pts+1.8 pts
    2015PaddoxLabour+0.4 pts-1.4 pts+1.8 pts
    2015PaddoxConservative+7.0 pts+5.7 pts+1.4 pts
    2015EastlandsLabour-2.3 pts-1.4 pts-1.0 pts
    2015EastlandsGreen-3.5 pts-2.6 pts-0.9 pts
    2015Rokeby and OversladeConservative+6.5 pts+5.7 pts+0.8 pts
    2015Wolston and the LawfordsTUSC-0.2 pts-0.9 pts+0.8 pts
    2015PaddoxGreen-1.9 pts-2.6 pts+0.7 pts
    2015BennConservative+5.0 pts+5.7 pts-0.7 pts
    2015Coton & BoughtonLabour-2.0 pts-1.4 pts-0.6 pts
    2015DunsmoreConservative+6.2 pts+5.7 pts+0.6 pts
    2015BennGreen-3.1 pts-2.6 pts-0.5 pts
    2015BennLiberal Democrats-1.2 pts-1.6 pts+0.4 pts
    2015Coton & BoughtonGreen-2.4 pts-2.6 pts+0.3 pts
    2015Wolston and the LawfordsGreen-2.7 pts-2.6 pts-0.1 pts
    2015Coton & BoughtonConservative+5.8 pts+5.7 pts+0.1 pts