Runnymede: wards that bucked the trend
Runnymede: in 2024, 24 ward results beat the expected swing and 20 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Addlestone South (+33.3 pts actual vs +2.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Addlestone South | Labour | +33.3 pts | +2.4 pts | +30.9 pts |
| 2024 | Englefield Green West | Labour | -21.0 pts | +2.4 pts | -23.3 pts |
| 2024 | Addlestone North | Green | -21.2 pts | -1.9 pts | -19.3 pts |
| 2024 | Englefield Green West | Conservative | -16.6 pts | -0.9 pts | -15.8 pts |
| 2024 | Egham Town | Runnymede Independent Residents' Group | -14.1 pts | -0.9 pts | -13.2 pts |
| 2024 | Chertsey St Ann's | Labour | +10.7 pts | -2.1 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2024 | Chertsey St Ann's | Conservative | -10.5 pts | -0.9 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2024 | Chertsey Riverside | Labour | +7.4 pts | -2.1 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2024 | Virginia Water | Liberal Democrats | +11.9 pts | +2.6 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2024 | New Haw | Conservative | -10.0 pts | -0.9 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2024 | Woodham and Rowtown | Liberal Democrats | -6.1 pts | +2.6 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2024 | Addlestone North | Labour | -9.6 pts | -2.1 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2024 | Thorpe | Conservative | +6.4 pts | -0.9 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2024 | Egham Town | Conservative | +6.1 pts | -0.9 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2024 | Chertsey Riverside | Liberal Democrats | -4.0 pts | +2.6 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2024 | Egham Hythe | Labour | +3.9 pts | -2.1 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2024 | Woodham and Rowtown | Green | +3.9 pts | -1.9 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2024 | Longcross, Lyne and Chertsey South | Liberal Democrats | -3.2 pts | +2.6 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2024 | New Haw | Liberal Democrats | +8.0 pts | +2.6 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2024 | Thorpe | Runnymede Independent Residents' Group | -6.1 pts | -0.9 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2024 | Egham Hythe | Independent | +5.0 pts | -0.1 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2024 | Addlestone South | Liberal Democrats | +7.3 pts | +2.6 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2024 | Ottershaw | Liberal Democrats | -1.9 pts | +2.6 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2024 | Virginia Water | Green | +2.4 pts | -1.9 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2024 | Longcross, Lyne and Chertsey South | Conservative | +3.2 pts | -0.9 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2024 | Ottershaw | Independent | +3.8 pts | -0.1 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2024 | Woodham and Rowtown | Conservative | +2.8 pts | -0.9 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2024 | Thorpe | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | +2.6 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2024 | Addlestone North | Liberal Democrats | +6.0 pts | +2.6 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Chertsey St Ann's | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | +2.6 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Chertsey Riverside | Conservative | -4.1 pts | -0.9 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2024 | Addlestone South | Conservative | +2.3 pts | -0.9 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2024 | New Haw | Green | +1.2 pts | -1.9 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2024 | Egham Hythe | Conservative | -3.6 pts | -0.9 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2024 | Thorpe | Labour | +0.6 pts | -2.1 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2024 | Virginia Water | Conservative | -3.6 pts | -0.9 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2024 | Chertsey Riverside | Green | +0.6 pts | -1.9 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Chertsey St Ann's | Green | +0.6 pts | -1.9 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Addlestone North | Conservative | -3.0 pts | -0.9 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2024 | Woodham and Rowtown | Labour | -2.9 pts | -2.1 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2024 | Ottershaw | Conservative | -0.2 pts | -0.9 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2024 | Egham Town | Liberal Democrats | +2.0 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2024 | New Haw | Heritage Party | +0.8 pts | +0.4 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2024 | Egham Town | Labour | +2.4 pts | +2.4 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2023 | Englefield Green West | Labour | +24.2 pts | -8.3 pts | +32.6 pts |
| 2023 | Englefield Green East | Labour | -14.0 pts | +10.7 pts | -24.7 pts |
| 2023 | New Haw | Conservative | -17.5 pts | +1.5 pts | -19.0 pts |
| 2023 | New Haw | Liberal Democrats | +17.3 pts | +0.0 pts | +17.2 pts |
| 2023 | Englefield Green East | Independent | -23.2 pts | -6.4 pts | -16.8 pts |
| 2023 | Egham Hythe | Conservative | +14.7 pts | +1.5 pts | +13.3 pts |
| 2023 | Englefield Green West | Conservative | +14.5 pts | +1.5 pts | +13.0 pts |
| 2023 | Virginia Water | Conservative | -9.2 pts | +1.5 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2023 | Chertsey Riverside | Liberal Democrats | -10.3 pts | +0.0 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2023 | Woodham and Rowtown | Green | -7.0 pts | +2.4 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2023 | Chertsey St Ann's | Conservative | +10.8 pts | +1.5 pts | +9.4 pts |
| 2023 | Addlestone South | Green | +11.5 pts | +2.4 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2023 | Addlestone South | Liberal Democrats | -8.9 pts | +0.0 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2023 | Woodham and Rowtown | Liberal Democrats | -8.4 pts | +0.0 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2023 | Addlestone South | Labour | -16.6 pts | -8.3 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2023 | Egham Town | Labour | -0.2 pts | -8.3 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2023 | Englefield Green East | Conservative | +9.5 pts | +1.5 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2023 | Addlestone South | Conservative | -4.7 pts | +1.5 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2023 | Chertsey Riverside | Green | -3.6 pts | +2.4 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2023 | Longcross, Lyne and Chertsey South | Conservative | -4.4 pts | +1.5 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2023 | Egham Town | Conservative | -3.9 pts | +1.5 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2023 | Longcross, Lyne and Chertsey South | Liberal Democrats | +4.4 pts | +0.0 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2023 | Ottershaw | Independent | -10.2 pts | -6.4 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2023 | Englefield Green East | Liberal Democrats | -3.7 pts | +0.0 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2023 | Addlestone North | Green | -0.9 pts | +2.4 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2023 | Virginia Water | Liberal Democrats | +2.9 pts | +0.0 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2023 | Egham Hythe | Labour | +13.2 pts | +10.7 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2023 | Addlestone North | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | +0.0 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2023 | Chertsey St Ann's | Liberal Democrats | -1.4 pts | +0.0 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Chertsey Riverside | Conservative | +2.8 pts | +1.5 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Addlestone North | Conservative | +0.3 pts | +1.5 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Woodham and Rowtown | Conservative | +0.4 pts | +1.5 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2023 | Egham Town | Liberal Democrats | +1.0 pts | +0.0 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2023 | Thorpe | Conservative | +0.6 pts | +1.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2023 | Ottershaw | Conservative | +1.1 pts | +1.5 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Thorpe | Liberal Democrats | +0.2 pts | +0.0 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2023 | Ottershaw | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | +0.0 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2016 | Woodham | Conservative | +20.0 pts | -2.7 pts | +22.7 pts |
| 2016 | Thorpe | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +18.9 pts | -2.0 pts | +20.9 pts |
| 2016 | Thorpe | Conservative | -21.5 pts | -2.7 pts | -18.8 pts |
| 2016 | Englefield Green East | Conservative | +12.9 pts | -2.7 pts | +15.6 pts |
| 2016 | Chertsey St Ann's | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +12.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +14.7 pts |
| 2016 | Addlestone North | Labour | +11.3 pts | -1.9 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2016 | Chertsey St Ann's | Conservative | -15.9 pts | -2.7 pts | -13.2 pts |
| 2016 | Englefield Green West | Labour | +10.9 pts | -1.9 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2016 | Addlestone Bourneside | Labour | +10.5 pts | -1.9 pts | +12.4 pts |
| 2016 | Addlestone Bourneside | Conservative | +7.7 pts | -2.7 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2016 | Egham Town | Conservative | -12.6 pts | -2.7 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2016 | Egham Hythe | Conservative | -11.8 pts | -2.7 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2016 | New Haw | Labour | +6.2 pts | -1.9 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2016 | Englefield Green West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +5.9 pts | -2.0 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2016 | New Haw | Liberal Democrats | +11.1 pts | +3.2 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2016 | New Haw | Conservative | +3.8 pts | -2.7 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2016 | Foxhills | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +4.1 pts | -2.0 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2016 | Addlestone North | Conservative | +3.3 pts | -2.7 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2016 | Virginia Water | Conservative | -8.2 pts | -2.7 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2016 | Chertsey Meads | Conservative | -8.0 pts | -2.7 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2016 | Englefield Green East | Labour | +2.5 pts | -1.9 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2016 | Egham Hythe | Labour | +2.2 pts | -1.9 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2016 | Virginia Water | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.6 pts | -2.0 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2016 | Chertsey South and Row Town | Conservative | +0.9 pts | -2.7 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2016 | Chertsey Meads | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.4 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2016 | Chertsey Meads | Labour | +0.4 pts | -1.9 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2016 | Foxhills | Conservative | -0.7 pts | -2.7 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2016 | Egham Hythe | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.0 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2016 | Englefield Green West | Conservative | -4.7 pts | -2.7 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2016 | Foxhills | Labour | -3.5 pts | -1.9 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2016 | Thorpe | Labour | -3.3 pts | -1.9 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2016 | Egham Town | Labour | -3.3 pts | -1.9 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2016 | Chertsey St Ann's | Labour | -3.0 pts | -1.9 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2016 | Chertsey South and Row Town | Labour | -2.7 pts | -1.9 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2016 | Woodham | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.4 pts | -2.0 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2015 | Chertsey Meads | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -23.3 pts | -9.1 pts | -14.2 pts |
| 2015 | Chertsey Meads | Conservative | +0.8 pts | +11.2 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2015 | Chertsey South and Row Town | Conservative | +21.3 pts | +11.2 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2015 | Englefield Green East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.5 pts | -9.1 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2015 | Virginia Water | Labour | -5.1 pts | +3.2 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2015 | Chertsey South and Row Town | Labour | +11.3 pts | +3.2 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2015 | Englefield Green West | Conservative | +3.1 pts | +11.2 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2015 | Chertsey South and Row Town | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.2 pts | -9.1 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2015 | Chertsey St Ann's | Labour | -4.6 pts | +3.2 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2015 | Virginia Water | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.8 pts | -9.1 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2015 | Woodham | Conservative | +4.5 pts | +11.2 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2015 | Addlestone North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.9 pts | -9.1 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2015 | Englefield Green East | Conservative | +6.6 pts | +11.2 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2015 | New Haw | Labour | -1.2 pts | +3.2 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2015 | New Haw | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -13.5 pts | -9.1 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2015 | Egham Hythe | Conservative | +15.5 pts | +11.2 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2015 | Woodham | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.0 pts | -9.1 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2015 | Chertsey St Ann's | Conservative | +15.2 pts | +11.2 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2015 | New Haw | Conservative | +14.8 pts | +11.2 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2015 | Englefield Green East | Labour | -0.4 pts | +3.2 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2015 | Virginia Water | Conservative | +7.9 pts | +11.2 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2015 | Englefield Green West | Labour | +6.3 pts | +3.2 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2015 | Foxhills | Labour | +0.2 pts | +3.2 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2015 | Egham Town | Labour | +6.0 pts | +3.2 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2015 | Addlestone Bourneside | Conservative | +8.3 pts | +11.2 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2015 | Egham Hythe | Labour | +0.4 pts | +3.2 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2015 | Woodham | Labour | +0.5 pts | +3.2 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2015 | Egham Hythe | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.5 pts | -9.1 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2015 | Foxhills | Conservative | +8.5 pts | +11.2 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2015 | Addlestone Bourneside | Labour | +0.7 pts | +3.2 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2015 | Englefield Green East | Green | +1.7 pts | -0.2 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2015 | Egham Town | Conservative | +13.1 pts | +11.2 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2015 | New Haw | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | -1.7 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2015 | Chertsey St Ann's | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -10.6 pts | -9.1 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2015 | Addlestone Bourneside | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -10.5 pts | -9.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2015 | Thorpe | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.7 pts | -9.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2015 | Thorpe | Conservative | +12.0 pts | +11.2 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2015 | Englefield Green West | Green | -1.1 pts | -0.2 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2015 | Addlestone North | Conservative | +12.0 pts | +11.2 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2015 | Englefield Green West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.4 pts | -9.1 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2015 | Foxhills | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.7 pts | -9.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2015 | Addlestone North | Labour | +2.9 pts | +3.2 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2015 | Thorpe | Labour | +3.0 pts | +3.2 pts | -0.2 pts |