Selby: wards that bucked the trend
Selby: in 2019, 21 ward results beat the expected swing and 17 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Derwent (+22.4 pts actual vs -7.6 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Derwent | Conservative | +22.4 pts | -7.6 pts | +30.0 pts |
| 2019 | Tadcaster | Conservative | -35.1 pts | -7.6 pts | -27.5 pts |
| 2019 | Byram and Brotherton | Labour | -23.9 pts | +1.9 pts | -25.8 pts |
| 2019 | Selby West | Labour | +26.4 pts | +1.9 pts | +24.5 pts |
| 2019 | Riccall | Labour | +24.7 pts | +1.9 pts | +22.8 pts |
| 2019 | Brayton | Conservative | +13.1 pts | -7.6 pts | +20.7 pts |
| 2019 | Camblesforth and Carlton | Conservative | -27.8 pts | -7.6 pts | -20.1 pts |
| 2019 | Eggborough | Independent | +23.2 pts | +3.7 pts | +19.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hambleton | Labour | -16.1 pts | +1.9 pts | -18.0 pts |
| 2019 | Monk Fryston | Conservative | +9.0 pts | -7.6 pts | +16.6 pts |
| 2019 | Riccall | Conservative | +8.6 pts | -7.6 pts | +16.3 pts |
| 2019 | Whitley | Independent | +19.6 pts | +3.7 pts | +15.9 pts |
| 2019 | South Milford | Conservative | +7.5 pts | -7.6 pts | +15.1 pts |
| 2019 | Escrick | Labour | +15.2 pts | +1.9 pts | +13.3 pts |
| 2019 | Sherburn in Elmet | Conservative | -20.1 pts | -7.6 pts | -12.5 pts |
| 2019 | Thorpe Willoughby | Conservative | +4.7 pts | -7.6 pts | +12.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hambleton | Conservative | -19.5 pts | -7.6 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2019 | Monk Fryston | Labour | -9.0 pts | +1.9 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2019 | Cawood and Wistow | Conservative | +2.7 pts | -7.6 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2019 | Selby East | Labour | +11.9 pts | +1.9 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2019 | Camblesforth and Carlton | Labour | -8.0 pts | +1.9 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2019 | Byram and Brotherton | Conservative | +2.1 pts | -7.6 pts | +9.7 pts |
| 2019 | Barlby Village | Conservative | +0.7 pts | -7.6 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Whitley | Conservative | -15.2 pts | -7.6 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Appleton Roebuck and Church Fenton | Conservative | -0.9 pts | -7.6 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2019 | Sherburn in Elmet | Labour | +8.5 pts | +1.9 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Thorpe Willoughby | Labour | -4.7 pts | +1.9 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Selby West | Conservative | -13.3 pts | -7.6 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Escrick | Conservative | -2.6 pts | -7.6 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Cawood and Wistow | Labour | -2.7 pts | +1.9 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2019 | South Milford | Labour | +6.2 pts | +1.9 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Derwent | Labour | -1.7 pts | +1.9 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Barlby Village | Labour | -0.7 pts | +1.9 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Selby East | Conservative | -5.6 pts | -7.6 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Tadcaster | Labour | +0.8 pts | +1.9 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Appleton Roebuck and Church Fenton | Labour | +0.9 pts | +1.9 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Eggborough | Conservative | -6.7 pts | -7.6 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Brayton | Labour | +1.0 pts | +1.9 pts | -0.9 pts |