Sevenoaks: wards that bucked the trend

Name: Sevenoaks trend-bucking wards
Creator: Psephology.AI

Sevenoaks: in 2019, 22 ward results beat the expected swing and 21 trailed it. The biggest gap was Green in Eynsford (+41.9 pts actual vs -2.7 pts expected).

Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

Sevenoaks: ward results against the expected swing
Year	Ward	Party	Actual swing	Expected swing	Gap
2019	Eynsford	Green	+41.9 pts	-2.7 pts	+44.7 pts
2019	Hextable	Conservative	-41.6 pts	-5.2 pts	-36.4 pts
2019	Kemsing	Conservative	+21.3 pts	-5.2 pts	+26.4 pts
2019	Westerham & Crockham Hill	Conservative	+19.2 pts	-5.2 pts	+24.4 pts
2019	Hextable	Independent	-8.9 pts	+6.3 pts	-15.2 pts
2019	Westerham & Crockham Hill	Labour	+13.7 pts	-1.3 pts	+15.0 pts
2019	Eynsford	Conservative	-18.9 pts	-5.2 pts	-13.8 pts
2019	Sevenoaks Eastern	Liberal Democrats	+18.6 pts	+4.8 pts	+13.8 pts
2019	Otford & Shoreham	Liberal Democrats	+17.8 pts	+4.8 pts	+13.0 pts
2019	Crockenhill & Well Hill	Labour	-13.3 pts	-1.3 pts	-11.9 pts
2019	Sevenoaks Eastern	Conservative	-16.7 pts	-5.2 pts	-11.6 pts
2019	Seal & Weald	Conservative	+5.5 pts	-5.2 pts	+10.6 pts
2019	Sevenoaks Town and St John's	Green	+7.8 pts	-2.7 pts	+10.5 pts
2019	Edenbridge North & East	Conservative	-15.3 pts	-5.2 pts	-10.2 pts
2019	Ash & New Ash Green	Conservative	+4.8 pts	-5.2 pts	+10.0 pts
2019	Edenbridge South and West	Conservative	-14.3 pts	-5.2 pts	-9.1 pts
2019	Otford & Shoreham	Conservative	+3.8 pts	-5.2 pts	+9.0 pts
2019	Crockenhill & Well Hill	Liberal Democrats	-4.0 pts	+4.8 pts	-8.8 pts
2019	Swanley White Oak	Conservative	+1.0 pts	-5.2 pts	+6.1 pts
2019	Swanley St Mary's	Labour	-6.6 pts	-1.3 pts	-5.3 pts
2019	Sevenoaks Town and St John's	Conservative	-10.1 pts	-5.2 pts	-4.9 pts
2019	Swanley Christchurch & Swanley Village	Labour	-6.1 pts	-1.3 pts	-4.8 pts
2019	Swanley Christchurch & Swanley Village	Green	+2.0 pts	-2.7 pts	+4.7 pts
2019	Sevenoaks Northern	Conservative	-8.9 pts	-5.2 pts	-3.8 pts
2019	Swanley St Mary's	Conservative	-8.9 pts	-5.2 pts	-3.8 pts
2019	Sevenoaks Northern	Liberal Democrats	+1.3 pts	+4.8 pts	-3.5 pts
2019	Hextable	Green	+0.6 pts	-2.7 pts	+3.3 pts
2019	Otford & Shoreham	Labour	+1.5 pts	-1.3 pts	+2.8 pts
2019	Fawkham & West Kingsdown	Conservative	-8.0 pts	-5.2 pts	-2.8 pts
2019	Swanley White Oak	Labour	+1.0 pts	-1.3 pts	+2.4 pts
2019	Swanley Christchurch & Swanley Village	Conservative	-7.2 pts	-5.2 pts	-2.1 pts
2019	Fawkham & West Kingsdown	Green	-0.9 pts	-2.7 pts	+1.8 pts
2019	Sevenoaks Town and St John's	Liberal Democrats	+3.0 pts	+4.8 pts	-1.8 pts
2019	Ash & New Ash Green	Green	-4.5 pts	-2.7 pts	-1.7 pts
2019	Farningham Horton Kirby & South Darenth	Conservative	-3.7 pts	-5.2 pts	+1.5 pts
2019	Edenbridge North & East	Labour	-2.5 pts	-1.3 pts	-1.2 pts
2019	Brasted Chevening & Sundridge	Conservative	-6.3 pts	-5.2 pts	-1.1 pts
2019	Crockenhill & Well Hill	Conservative	-4.2 pts	-5.2 pts	+1.0 pts
2019	Ash & New Ash Green	Labour	-0.4 pts	-1.3 pts	+1.0 pts
2019	Sevenoaks Eastern	Green	-1.8 pts	-2.7 pts	+0.9 pts
2019	Sevenoaks Kippington	Conservative	-4.3 pts	-5.2 pts	+0.9 pts
2019	Seal & Weald	Liberal Democrats	+4.1 pts	+4.8 pts	-0.7 pts
2019	Hartley & Hodsoll Street	Conservative	-4.7 pts	-5.2 pts	+0.5 pts