Psephology.AI

    Shropshire: wards that bucked the trend

    Shropshire: in 2021, 68 ward results beat the expected swing and 78 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Bowbrook (+46.1 pts actual vs +0.9 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Shropshire: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2021BowbrookLiberal Democrats+46.1 pts+0.9 pts+45.3 pts
    2021BowbrookConservative-48.7 pts-4.4 pts-44.2 pts
    2021The MeresLiberal Democrats+37.4 pts+0.9 pts+36.5 pts
    2021Ruyton And BaschurchLiberal Democrats+35.8 pts+0.9 pts+34.9 pts
    2021CopthorneLiberal Democrats+35.6 pts+0.9 pts+34.7 pts
    2021Bridgnorth West And TasleyLabour+36.3 pts+1.8 pts+34.6 pts
    2021RadbrookGreen+37.0 pts+2.5 pts+34.5 pts
    2021Rea ValleyLiberal Democrats-31.0 pts+0.9 pts-31.8 pts
    2021Severn ValleyConservative-34.2 pts-4.4 pts-29.8 pts
    2021MonkmoorLabour-27.8 pts+1.8 pts-29.6 pts
    2021Cleobury MortimerConservative+24.0 pts-4.4 pts+28.4 pts
    2021Ellesmere UrbanConservative-32.7 pts-4.4 pts-28.3 pts
    2021Shifnal NorthConservative+23.9 pts-4.4 pts+28.3 pts
    2021CopthorneConservative-31.7 pts-4.4 pts-27.3 pts
    2021Belle VueLiberal Democrats-24.0 pts+0.9 pts-24.9 pts
    2021BurnellLiberal Democrats-23.9 pts+0.9 pts-24.8 pts
    2021Whitchurch NorthLiberal Democrats+23.9 pts+0.9 pts+23.0 pts
    2021LlanymynechLiberal Democrats+23.8 pts+0.9 pts+22.9 pts
    2021MeoleLiberal Democrats+23.5 pts+0.9 pts+22.6 pts
    2021Oswestry SouthGreen+24.4 pts+2.5 pts+21.9 pts
    2021Oswestry EastGreen+24.3 pts+2.5 pts+21.8 pts
    2021WhittingtonLiberal Democrats+22.6 pts+0.9 pts+21.8 pts
    2021WemConservative+17.3 pts-4.4 pts+21.7 pts
    2021Ruyton And BaschurchConservative-26.1 pts-4.4 pts-21.7 pts
    2021BurnellConservative+16.9 pts-4.4 pts+21.3 pts
    2021Market Drayton WestLabour-19.3 pts+1.8 pts-21.1 pts
    2021Rea ValleyConservative+16.1 pts-4.4 pts+20.5 pts
    2021Market Drayton EastConservative-24.8 pts-4.4 pts-20.4 pts
    2021Oswestry SouthConservative-24.4 pts-4.4 pts-20.0 pts
    2021RadbrookConservative-24.4 pts-4.4 pts-20.0 pts
    2021MeoleConservative-24.4 pts-4.4 pts-19.9 pts
    2021PreesConservative+14.3 pts-4.4 pts+18.7 pts
    2021Brown CleeConservative-22.4 pts-4.4 pts-18.0 pts
    2021AbbeyLiberal Democrats-16.7 pts+0.9 pts-17.6 pts
    2021BroseleyConservative-21.4 pts-4.4 pts-17.0 pts
    2021Whitchurch SouthLiberal Democrats+17.6 pts+0.9 pts+16.7 pts
    2021Bridgnorth West And TasleyConservative-20.9 pts-4.4 pts-16.5 pts
    2021Quarry And Coton HillLiberal Democrats-15.4 pts+0.9 pts-16.3 pts
    2021HodnetConservative-20.5 pts-4.4 pts-16.1 pts
    2021Ludlow SouthConservative+11.1 pts-4.4 pts+15.5 pts
    2021Bridgnorth West And TasleyLiberal Democrats-14.5 pts+0.9 pts-15.3 pts
    2021Market Drayton EastLabour-13.5 pts+1.8 pts-15.2 pts
    2021Bridgnorth East And Astley AbbottsLiberal Democrats-14.2 pts+0.9 pts-15.0 pts
    2021Ludlow SouthLiberal Democrats-13.9 pts+0.9 pts-14.8 pts
    2021Whitchurch SouthConservative+10.3 pts-4.4 pts+14.7 pts
    2021Ludlow EastLiberal Democrats-13.5 pts+0.9 pts-14.4 pts
    2021BroseleyLabour+16.1 pts+1.8 pts+14.4 pts
    2021Belle VueConservative+9.2 pts-4.4 pts+13.6 pts
    2021Ludlow EastConservative+9.2 pts-4.4 pts+13.6 pts
    2021PorthillGreen+15.2 pts+2.5 pts+12.8 pts
    2021WemLiberal Democrats-11.7 pts+0.9 pts-12.6 pts
    2021Gobowen Selattyn And Weston RhynLiberal Democrats+12.9 pts+0.9 pts+12.0 pts
    2021ShawburyConservative-16.1 pts-4.4 pts-11.7 pts
    2021CleeLiberal Democrats-10.7 pts+0.9 pts-11.6 pts
    2021Ludlow NorthLiberal Democrats-10.5 pts+0.9 pts-11.4 pts
    2021Bridgnorth East And Astley AbbottsLabour+12.5 pts+1.8 pts+10.7 pts
    2021LotonLiberal Democrats-9.7 pts+0.9 pts-10.6 pts
    2021The MeresConservative-14.9 pts-4.4 pts-10.5 pts
    2021Castlefields And DitheringtonLabour-8.3 pts+1.8 pts-10.1 pts
    2021PorthillLiberal Democrats-9.0 pts+0.9 pts-9.9 pts
    2021CorvedaleConservative-14.1 pts-4.4 pts-9.7 pts
    2021Brown CleeLiberal Democrats-8.8 pts+0.9 pts-9.7 pts
    2021AbbeyConservative+5.2 pts-4.4 pts+9.6 pts
    2021PorthillConservative-13.9 pts-4.4 pts-9.5 pts
    2021HighleyConservative+5.1 pts-4.4 pts+9.5 pts
    2021Belle VueLabour+11.2 pts+1.8 pts+9.4 pts
    2021LlanymynechConservative-13.5 pts-4.4 pts-9.1 pts
    2021UnderdaleLiberal Democrats+9.5 pts+0.9 pts+8.6 pts
    2021CleeConservative+4.1 pts-4.4 pts+8.5 pts
    2021Ludlow NorthConservative+3.7 pts-4.4 pts+8.1 pts
    2021Bayston Hill Column And SuttonLabour-6.3 pts+1.8 pts-8.0 pts
    2021Severn ValleyLiberal Democrats-7.1 pts+0.9 pts-8.0 pts
    2021Market Drayton WestConservative-12.1 pts-4.4 pts-7.7 pts
    2021BattlefieldConservative+3.1 pts-4.4 pts+7.5 pts
    2021Severn ValleyGreen-4.8 pts+2.5 pts-7.3 pts
    2021BagleyConservative-11.1 pts-4.4 pts-6.7 pts
    2021Oswestry WestConservative-10.8 pts-4.4 pts-6.4 pts
    2021Church Stretton And Craven ArmsConservative-10.8 pts-4.4 pts-6.4 pts
    2021St Martin'sLabour+8.1 pts+1.8 pts+6.3 pts
    2021Castlefields And DitheringtonConservative+1.9 pts-4.4 pts+6.3 pts
    2021BagleyLabour-4.4 pts+1.8 pts-6.1 pts
    2021Shifnal South And CosfordIndependent-6.2 pts-0.1 pts-6.1 pts
    2021AbbeyLabour+7.9 pts+1.8 pts+6.1 pts
    2021Oswestry EastConservative+1.6 pts-4.4 pts+6.0 pts
    2021UnderdaleConservative-10.4 pts-4.4 pts-6.0 pts
    2021Bridgnorth East And Astley AbbottsConservative-10.2 pts-4.4 pts-5.8 pts
    2021Church Stretton And Craven ArmsLiberal Democrats+6.6 pts+0.9 pts+5.7 pts
    2021Oswestry WestGreen+8.1 pts+2.5 pts+5.7 pts
    2021HighleyLabour-3.8 pts+1.8 pts-5.6 pts
    2021LongdenLiberal Democrats+6.4 pts+0.9 pts+5.5 pts
    2021Bayston Hill Column And SuttonConservative+0.9 pts-4.4 pts+5.3 pts
    2021Chirbury And WorthenLiberal Democrats+6.1 pts+0.9 pts+5.2 pts
    2021ClunConservative+0.8 pts-4.4 pts+5.2 pts
    2021Ellesmere UrbanLiberal Democrats-4.3 pts+0.9 pts-5.1 pts
    2021MonkmoorConservative-9.5 pts-4.4 pts-5.1 pts
    2021LongdenConservative-9.3 pts-4.4 pts-4.9 pts
    2021LotonGreen-2.4 pts+2.5 pts-4.9 pts
    2021LotonConservative+0.4 pts-4.4 pts+4.8 pts
    2021TernLabour+6.6 pts+1.8 pts+4.8 pts
    2021BattlefieldLabour-2.9 pts+1.8 pts-4.6 pts
    2021Ruyton And BaschurchLabour-2.8 pts+1.8 pts-4.6 pts
    2021UnderdaleGreen-1.7 pts+2.5 pts-4.2 pts
    2021Oswestry EastLabour-2.4 pts+1.8 pts-4.1 pts
    2021TernGreen-1.4 pts+2.5 pts-3.8 pts
    2021TernLiberal Democrats-3.0 pts+0.9 pts-3.8 pts
    2021MeoleLabour-2.0 pts+1.8 pts-3.8 pts
    2021St Martin'sConservative-8.1 pts-4.4 pts-3.7 pts
    2021Bishops CastleLiberal Democrats+4.6 pts+0.9 pts+3.7 pts
    2021Quarry And Coton HillGreen-1.2 pts+2.5 pts-3.7 pts
    2021Oswestry EastLiberal Democrats-2.8 pts+0.9 pts-3.6 pts
    2021St. OswaldConservative-0.8 pts-4.4 pts+3.6 pts
    2021Alveley And ClaverleyLiberal Democrats-2.5 pts+0.9 pts-3.4 pts
    2021Shifnal South And CosfordConservative-1.0 pts-4.4 pts+3.4 pts
    2021BagleyLiberal Democrats-2.5 pts+0.9 pts-3.4 pts
    2021Bayston Hill Column And SuttonGreen+5.6 pts+2.5 pts+3.1 pts
    2021Whitchurch NorthConservative-1.7 pts-4.4 pts+2.7 pts
    2021SundorneLabour-0.8 pts+1.8 pts-2.6 pts
    2021WorfieldConservative-1.8 pts-4.4 pts+2.6 pts
    2021WorfieldLiberal Democrats+3.3 pts+0.9 pts+2.4 pts
    2021WhittingtonConservative-2.1 pts-4.4 pts+2.3 pts
    2021Bishops CastleConservative-6.7 pts-4.4 pts-2.3 pts
    2021Cleobury MortimerLabour-0.5 pts+1.8 pts-2.3 pts
    2021HarlescottConservative-2.2 pts-4.4 pts+2.2 pts
    2021TernConservative-2.3 pts-4.4 pts+2.1 pts
    2021CheswardineConservative-6.5 pts-4.4 pts-2.1 pts
    2021Ludlow EastLabour-0.3 pts+1.8 pts-2.1 pts
    2021SundorneConservative-6.1 pts-4.4 pts-1.7 pts
    2021Gobowen Selattyn And Weston RhynLabour+3.5 pts+1.8 pts+1.7 pts
    2021Church Stretton And Craven ArmsGreen+4.2 pts+2.5 pts+1.7 pts
    2021Chirbury And WorthenConservative-6.1 pts-4.4 pts-1.7 pts
    2021ClunLiberal Democrats-0.8 pts+0.9 pts-1.6 pts
    2021Alveley And ClaverleyConservative-5.9 pts-4.4 pts-1.5 pts
    2021Cleobury MortimerLiberal Democrats+2.3 pts+0.9 pts+1.5 pts
    2021Castlefields And DitheringtonGreen+3.9 pts+2.5 pts+1.4 pts
    2021HighleyIndependent-1.3 pts-0.1 pts-1.3 pts
    2021Belle VueGreen+3.6 pts+2.5 pts+1.1 pts
    2021Quarry And Coton HillConservative-5.5 pts-4.4 pts-1.1 pts
    2021Rea ValleyGreen+3.5 pts+2.5 pts+1.0 pts
    2021Gobowen Selattyn And Weston RhynConservative-3.4 pts-4.4 pts+1.0 pts
    2021Ludlow NorthGreen+3.3 pts+2.5 pts+0.9 pts
    2021UnderdaleLabour+2.6 pts+1.8 pts+0.9 pts
    2021Bayston Hill Column And SuttonLiberal Democrats+1.7 pts+0.9 pts+0.8 pts
    2021WemIndependent+0.6 pts-0.1 pts+0.7 pts
    2021MeoleGreen+2.9 pts+2.5 pts+0.4 pts
    2021Bishops CastleGreen+2.1 pts+2.5 pts-0.3 pts
    2021HarlescottLabour+1.6 pts+1.8 pts-0.2 pts
    2017BroseleyConservative+48.2 pts+5.5 pts+42.7 pts
    2017Oswestry WestConservative-32.6 pts+5.5 pts-38.1 pts
    2017Shifnal NorthIndependent+33.2 pts-1.1 pts+34.4 pts
    2017Ludlow NorthLiberal Democrats+35.3 pts+1.7 pts+33.6 pts
    2017Ruyton And BaschurchConservative+39.0 pts+5.5 pts+33.5 pts
    2017Belle VueLabour-33.5 pts-1.6 pts-31.9 pts
    2017Ludlow SouthLiberal Democrats+32.2 pts+1.7 pts+30.6 pts
    2017UnderdaleLiberal Democrats-28.2 pts+1.7 pts-29.9 pts
    2017Ellesmere UrbanLiberal Democrats-27.6 pts+1.7 pts-29.3 pts
    2017Rea ValleyLiberal Democrats+29.5 pts+1.7 pts+27.8 pts
    2017PorthillGreen+31.1 pts+6.1 pts+25.0 pts
    2017BroseleyLabour-26.3 pts-1.6 pts-24.8 pts
    2017Brown CleeConservative+29.2 pts+5.5 pts+23.7 pts
    2017Ludlow NorthConservative-17.1 pts+5.5 pts-22.6 pts
    2017Ruyton And BaschurchLiberal Democrats-20.8 pts+1.7 pts-22.5 pts
    2017Market Drayton EastConservative+27.6 pts+5.5 pts+22.1 pts
    2017Ellesmere UrbanConservative+27.6 pts+5.5 pts+22.1 pts
    2017BurnellConservative-16.1 pts+5.5 pts-21.7 pts
    2017Shifnal NorthConservative-15.3 pts+5.5 pts-20.8 pts
    2017Ludlow SouthConservative-14.4 pts+5.5 pts-19.9 pts
    2017Bridgnorth West And TasleyUK Independence Party (UKIP)-27.6 pts-9.7 pts-17.9 pts
    2017Oswestry SouthConservative+22.8 pts+5.5 pts+17.3 pts
    2017Gobowen Selattyn And Weston RhynConservative-10.2 pts+5.5 pts-15.7 pts
    2017Bishops CastleConservative-9.8 pts+5.5 pts-15.3 pts
    2017UnderdaleLabour+13.3 pts-1.6 pts+14.9 pts
    2017PorthillLiberal Democrats-12.8 pts+1.7 pts-14.4 pts
    2017UnderdaleConservative+19.9 pts+5.5 pts+14.4 pts
    2017CopthorneLiberal Democrats+14.5 pts+1.7 pts+12.9 pts
    2017St Martin'sConservative+17.7 pts+5.5 pts+12.2 pts
    2017Ludlow EastLiberal Democrats+13.7 pts+1.7 pts+12.1 pts
    2017Oswestry EastLabour-12.9 pts-1.6 pts-11.3 pts
    2017Bayston Hill Column And SuttonConservative-5.8 pts+5.5 pts-11.3 pts
    2017LotonConservative-5.6 pts+5.5 pts-11.1 pts
    2017LlanymynechConservative-5.3 pts+5.5 pts-10.8 pts
    2017BurnellLiberal Democrats+12.4 pts+1.7 pts+10.8 pts
    2017CleeConservative-5.2 pts+5.5 pts-10.7 pts
    2017CleeLiberal Democrats+12.3 pts+1.7 pts+10.6 pts
    2017MonkmoorLabour+9.0 pts-1.6 pts+10.6 pts
    2017Castlefields And DitheringtonLabour-11.9 pts-1.6 pts-10.3 pts
    2017Alveley And ClaverleyConservative+15.8 pts+5.5 pts+10.3 pts
    2017BattlefieldConservative-4.8 pts+5.5 pts-10.3 pts
    2017HarlescottLabour-11.6 pts-1.6 pts-10.0 pts
    2017Bishops CastleLiberal Democrats+11.6 pts+1.7 pts+10.0 pts
    2017SundorneLabour+7.6 pts-1.6 pts+9.2 pts
    2017HodnetConservative+14.4 pts+5.5 pts+8.9 pts
    2017PorthillConservative-3.3 pts+5.5 pts-8.8 pts
    2017MeoleLabour-10.2 pts-1.6 pts-8.7 pts
    2017WhittingtonConservative-3.1 pts+5.5 pts-8.6 pts
    2017ClunLiberal Democrats+10.1 pts+1.7 pts+8.5 pts
    2017Shifnal South And CosfordConservative-2.6 pts+5.5 pts-8.1 pts
    2017TernConservative-2.5 pts+5.5 pts-8.1 pts
    2017LongdenLiberal Democrats+9.7 pts+1.7 pts+8.0 pts
    2017Bishops CastleGreen-1.9 pts+6.1 pts-8.0 pts
    2017MonkmoorConservative-2.1 pts+5.5 pts-7.6 pts
    2017Quarry And Coton HillLiberal Democrats+9.3 pts+1.7 pts+7.6 pts
    2017Ludlow NorthGreen-1.4 pts+6.1 pts-7.5 pts
    2017Bayston Hill Column And SuttonLabour+5.9 pts-1.6 pts+7.5 pts
    2017Ruyton And BaschurchLabour+5.9 pts-1.6 pts+7.4 pts
    2017Market Drayton EastLabour+5.8 pts-1.6 pts+7.4 pts
    2017AlbrightonConservative+12.8 pts+5.5 pts+7.3 pts
    2017RadbrookConservative+12.8 pts+5.5 pts+7.3 pts
    2017Alveley And ClaverleyLiberal Democrats+8.8 pts+1.7 pts+7.1 pts
    2017PreesConservative-1.2 pts+5.5 pts-6.7 pts
    2017Market Drayton WestConservative+12.2 pts+5.5 pts+6.6 pts
    2017Oswestry SouthGreen-0.5 pts+6.1 pts-6.6 pts
    2017Bridgnorth West And TasleyLiberal Democrats+8.2 pts+1.7 pts+6.6 pts
    2017Bridgnorth East And Astley AbbottsConservative+11.9 pts+5.5 pts+6.4 pts
    2017CopthorneUK Independence Party (UKIP)-16.0 pts-9.7 pts-6.3 pts
    2017Church Stretton And Craven ArmsLiberal Democrats-4.5 pts+1.7 pts-6.2 pts
    2017SundorneConservative-0.5 pts+5.5 pts-6.0 pts
    2017Ludlow EastConservative-0.4 pts+5.5 pts-6.0 pts
    2017Quarry And Coton HillConservative-0.4 pts+5.5 pts-5.9 pts
    2017RadbrookLiberal Democrats-4.2 pts+1.7 pts-5.9 pts
    2017LotonLiberal Democrats-3.9 pts+1.7 pts-5.6 pts
    2017WemLiberal Democrats-3.9 pts+1.7 pts-5.5 pts
    2017AbbeyLabour+3.9 pts-1.6 pts+5.4 pts
    2017ClunConservative+10.7 pts+5.5 pts+5.2 pts
    2017Chirbury And WorthenLiberal Democrats-3.5 pts+1.7 pts-5.2 pts
    2017LongdenUK Independence Party (UKIP)-4.7 pts-9.7 pts+5.1 pts
    2017MeoleConservative+0.5 pts+5.5 pts-5.0 pts
    2017TernLabour-6.5 pts-1.6 pts-4.9 pts
    2017Belle VueConservative+0.7 pts+5.5 pts-4.8 pts
    2017Ludlow EastLabour-6.3 pts-1.6 pts-4.8 pts
    2017Bridgnorth West And TasleyConservative+10.2 pts+5.5 pts+4.6 pts
    2017CopthorneConservative+10.1 pts+5.5 pts+4.6 pts
    2017LongdenConservative+1.3 pts+5.5 pts-4.2 pts
    2017TernLiberal Democrats-2.3 pts+1.7 pts-3.9 pts
    2017Oswestry EastIndependent-5.0 pts-1.1 pts-3.9 pts
    2017Bayston Hill Column And SuttonUK Independence Party (UKIP)-6.0 pts-9.7 pts+3.8 pts
    2017Oswestry EastConservative+1.8 pts+5.5 pts-3.8 pts
    2017Severn ValleyConservative+1.8 pts+5.5 pts-3.7 pts
    2017CheswardineLabour-5.1 pts-1.6 pts-3.6 pts
    2017BagleyLiberal Democrats-1.8 pts+1.7 pts-3.5 pts
    2017St Martin'sLabour+1.9 pts-1.6 pts+3.5 pts
    2017Cleobury MortimerConservative+9.0 pts+5.5 pts+3.4 pts
    2017Ludlow NorthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-6.4 pts-9.7 pts+3.3 pts
    2017HarlescottConservative+2.3 pts+5.5 pts-3.3 pts
    2017MeoleLiberal Democrats+4.8 pts+1.7 pts+3.1 pts
    2017Market Drayton WestLabour+1.4 pts-1.6 pts+3.0 pts
    2017BowbrookConservative+3.1 pts+5.5 pts-2.4 pts
    2017Church Stretton And Craven ArmsConservative+3.1 pts+5.5 pts-2.4 pts
    2017Bridgnorth East And Astley AbbottsLiberal Democrats+4.0 pts+1.7 pts+2.3 pts
    2017WemIndependent-3.4 pts-1.1 pts-2.3 pts
    2017BattlefieldLabour-3.7 pts-1.6 pts-2.1 pts
    2017AbbeyLiberal Democrats+3.7 pts+1.7 pts+2.1 pts
    2017Chirbury And WorthenConservative+3.5 pts+5.5 pts-2.0 pts
    2017BagleyConservative+7.3 pts+5.5 pts+1.8 pts
    2017BagleyLabour+0.0 pts-1.6 pts+1.6 pts
    2017AbbeyUK Independence Party (UKIP)-8.2 pts-9.7 pts+1.5 pts
    2017Bayston Hill Column And SuttonLiberal Democrats+0.4 pts+1.7 pts-1.3 pts
    2017WorfieldConservative+6.4 pts+5.5 pts+0.9 pts
    2017WemConservative+6.4 pts+5.5 pts+0.8 pts
    2017Rea ValleyConservative+6.2 pts+5.5 pts+0.7 pts
    2017CheswardineConservative+5.1 pts+5.5 pts-0.4 pts
    2017Severn ValleyLiberal Democrats+2.0 pts+1.7 pts+0.3 pts
    2017AbbeyConservative+5.3 pts+5.5 pts-0.2 pts
    2017Castlefields And DitheringtonConservative+5.7 pts+5.5 pts+0.1 pts
    2017HighleyIndependent-1.0 pts-1.1 pts+0.1 pts