South Derbyshire: wards that bucked the trend
South Derbyshire: in 2019, 21 ward results beat the expected swing and 19 trailed it. The biggest gap was UK Independence Party (UKIP) in Hatton (+2.2 pts actual vs -12.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Hatton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +2.2 pts | -12.5 pts | +14.7 pts |
| 2019 | Seales | Labour | -5.5 pts | +5.1 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hatton | Conservative | -1.6 pts | +8.3 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2019 | Willington & Findern | Conservative | -0.3 pts | +8.3 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hilton | Conservative | +0.3 pts | +8.3 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Woodville | Labour | +12.2 pts | +5.1 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2019 | Linton | Conservative | +14.5 pts | +8.3 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hatton | Labour | -0.6 pts | +5.1 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Swadlincote | Conservative | +2.9 pts | +8.3 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hilton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.1 pts | -12.5 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Melbourne | Labour | +10.5 pts | +5.1 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Willington & Findern | Labour | +10.0 pts | +5.1 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Swadlincote | Labour | +9.5 pts | +5.1 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Linton | Labour | +1.0 pts | +5.1 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Woodville | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.3 pts | -12.5 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Aston | Conservative | +12.1 pts | +8.3 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Repton | Labour | +1.3 pts | +5.1 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Repton | Conservative | +12.0 pts | +8.3 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Newhall & Stanton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.0 pts | -12.5 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Newhall & Stanton | Labour | +1.8 pts | +5.1 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Etwall | Labour | +2.0 pts | +5.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Aston | Labour | +8.1 pts | +5.1 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Willington & Findern | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.7 pts | -12.5 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Etwall | Conservative | +10.3 pts | +8.3 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Stenson | Conservative | +10.3 pts | +8.3 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hilton | Labour | +6.8 pts | +5.1 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Midway | Labour | +6.7 pts | +5.1 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Seales | Conservative | +6.7 pts | +8.3 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Midway | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -13.9 pts | -12.5 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Melbourne | Conservative | +9.7 pts | +8.3 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Church Gresley | Conservative | +7.1 pts | +8.3 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Linton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.3 pts | -12.5 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Newhall & Stanton | Conservative | +7.2 pts | +8.3 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Midway | Conservative | +7.2 pts | +8.3 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Woodville | Conservative | +7.2 pts | +8.3 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Church Gresley | Labour | +5.8 pts | +5.1 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Aston | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -13.1 pts | -12.5 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Church Gresley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.9 pts | -12.5 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Stenson | Labour | +5.3 pts | +5.1 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Swadlincote | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.4 pts | -12.5 pts | +0.0 pts |