South Oxfordshire: wards that bucked the trend
South Oxfordshire: in 2019, 33 ward results beat the expected swing and 25 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Kidmore End & Whitchurch (+55.9 pts actual vs +4.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Kidmore End & Whitchurch | Independent | +55.9 pts | +4.2 pts | +51.7 pts |
| 2019 | Sandford & the Wittenhams | Green | +53.7 pts | +4.0 pts | +49.6 pts |
| 2019 | Wheatley | Liberal Democrats | +45.3 pts | +11.5 pts | +33.8 pts |
| 2019 | Woodcote & Rotherfield | Green | +34.1 pts | +4.0 pts | +30.1 pts |
| 2019 | Watlington | Liberal Democrats | +40.1 pts | +11.5 pts | +28.6 pts |
| 2019 | Berinsfield | Conservative | -41.1 pts | -16.3 pts | -24.8 pts |
| 2019 | Chalgrove | Liberal Democrats | +33.1 pts | +11.5 pts | +21.6 pts |
| 2019 | Cholsey | Conservative | +3.4 pts | -16.3 pts | +19.7 pts |
| 2019 | Cholsey | Labour | +14.1 pts | -3.9 pts | +18.0 pts |
| 2019 | Goring | Liberal Democrats | +27.9 pts | +11.5 pts | +16.4 pts |
| 2019 | Benson & Crowmarsh | Green | +20.4 pts | +4.0 pts | +16.3 pts |
| 2019 | Sandford & the Wittenhams | Conservative | -32.6 pts | -16.3 pts | -16.3 pts |
| 2019 | Haseley Brook | Liberal Democrats | +27.6 pts | +11.5 pts | +16.1 pts |
| 2019 | Berinsfield | Labour | -19.2 pts | -3.9 pts | -15.3 pts |
| 2019 | Henley-on-Thames | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | +11.5 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2019 | Thame | Liberal Democrats | +24.1 pts | +11.5 pts | +12.6 pts |
| 2019 | Didcot North East | Liberal Democrats | +23.6 pts | +11.5 pts | +12.1 pts |
| 2019 | Sonning Common | Conservative | -27.5 pts | -16.3 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2019 | Wallingford | Labour | -14.2 pts | -3.9 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2019 | Chalgrove | Conservative | -26.3 pts | -16.3 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2019 | Sonning Common | Liberal Democrats | +1.9 pts | +11.5 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2019 | Wheatley | Labour | -13.5 pts | -3.9 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2019 | Didcot South | Conservative | -7.1 pts | -16.3 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2019 | Didcot West | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -16.3 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Kidmore End & Whitchurch | Conservative | -24.0 pts | -16.3 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Wallingford | Conservative | -23.9 pts | -16.3 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Chinnor | Conservative | -23.6 pts | -16.3 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2019 | Garsington & Horspath | Conservative | -9.0 pts | -16.3 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2019 | Didcot West | Liberal Democrats | +4.3 pts | +11.5 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Didcot South | Labour | +2.7 pts | -3.9 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Benson & Crowmarsh | Liberal Democrats | +5.0 pts | +11.5 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2019 | Wallingford | Green | +10.4 pts | +4.0 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Forest Hill & Holton | Conservative | -10.0 pts | -16.3 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2019 | Forest Hill & Holton | Liberal Democrats | +17.6 pts | +11.5 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2019 | Woodcote & Rotherfield | Conservative | -22.0 pts | -16.3 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Henley-on-Thames | Labour | +1.6 pts | -3.9 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2019 | Henley-on-Thames | Conservative | -10.9 pts | -16.3 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Kidmore End & Whitchurch | Labour | +1.4 pts | -3.9 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Goring | Labour | +0.6 pts | -3.9 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Cholsey | Liberal Democrats | +15.4 pts | +11.5 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Sonning Common | Labour | -0.2 pts | -3.9 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Haseley Brook | Conservative | -20.0 pts | -16.3 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Forest Hill & Holton | Labour | -7.6 pts | -3.9 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Didcot West | Labour | -0.4 pts | -3.9 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Wheatley | Conservative | -19.7 pts | -16.3 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Didcot North East | Independent | +7.6 pts | +4.2 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Didcot South | Liberal Democrats | +8.3 pts | +11.5 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Chinnor | Liberal Democrats | +14.4 pts | +11.5 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Garsington & Horspath | Labour | -6.6 pts | -3.9 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Garsington & Horspath | Liberal Democrats | +14.0 pts | +11.5 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Garsington & Horspath | Green | +1.5 pts | +4.0 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Watlington | Conservative | -14.5 pts | -16.3 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Thame | Conservative | -17.9 pts | -16.3 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Thame | Labour | -5.3 pts | -3.9 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Goring | Conservative | -17.5 pts | -16.3 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Didcot North East | Labour | -2.7 pts | -3.9 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Didcot North East | Conservative | -15.7 pts | -16.3 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Benson & Crowmarsh | Conservative | -16.9 pts | -16.3 pts | -0.6 pts |