Psephology.AI

    Southend-On-Sea: wards that bucked the trend

    Southend-On-Sea: in 2024, 32 ward results beat the expected swing and 48 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Belfairs (-28.5 pts actual vs -4.5 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Southend-On-Sea: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2024BelfairsIndependent-28.5 pts-4.5 pts-24.0 pts
    2024ThorpeIndependent-27.5 pts-4.5 pts-23.0 pts
    2024BelfairsGreen+21.3 pts+3.1 pts+18.1 pts
    2024WestboroughLabour-7.4 pts+10.0 pts-17.4 pts
    2024St. Luke'sLabour-2.6 pts+10.0 pts-12.7 pts
    2024Blenheim ParkIndependent+7.0 pts-4.5 pts+11.5 pts
    2024ThorpeConservative+9.4 pts-1.7 pts+11.2 pts
    2024West ShoeburyConservative-12.8 pts-1.7 pts-11.1 pts
    2024WestboroughLiberal Democrats+8.7 pts-1.5 pts+10.2 pts
    2024MiltonLabour+0.3 pts+10.0 pts-9.8 pts
    2024Eastwood ParkLiberal Democrats-11.0 pts-1.5 pts-9.5 pts
    2024VictoriaLabour+1.2 pts+10.0 pts-8.8 pts
    2024BelfairsLabour+1.4 pts+10.0 pts-8.6 pts
    2024Eastwood ParkConservative+6.7 pts-1.7 pts+8.4 pts
    2024BelfairsConservative+6.3 pts-1.7 pts+8.1 pts
    2024West LeighConservative-9.6 pts-1.7 pts-7.9 pts
    2024ShoeburynessIndependent-11.9 pts-4.5 pts-7.4 pts
    2024Eastwood ParkLabour+2.7 pts+10.0 pts-7.4 pts
    2024St. Luke'sConservative+4.9 pts-1.7 pts+6.6 pts
    2024Blenheim ParkLabour-0.8 pts-6.3 pts+5.5 pts
    2024Blenheim ParkConservative-7.1 pts-1.7 pts-5.4 pts
    2024KursaalConfelicity+5.4 pts+0.1 pts+5.3 pts
    2024ChalkwellLabour+5.0 pts+10.0 pts-5.1 pts
    2024West ShoeburyGreen-1.9 pts+3.1 pts-5.0 pts
    2024ShoeburynessLabour+14.9 pts+10.0 pts+4.8 pts
    2024ChalkwellConservative-6.5 pts-1.7 pts-4.8 pts
    2024St LaurenceConservative+2.5 pts-1.7 pts+4.3 pts
    2024West LeighLabour+6.2 pts+10.0 pts-3.8 pts
    2024St. Luke'sIndependent-0.8 pts-4.5 pts+3.7 pts
    2024VictoriaGreen+0.1 pts+3.1 pts-3.0 pts
    2024ShoeburynessGreen+0.1 pts+3.1 pts-3.0 pts
    2024West LeighGreen+6.0 pts+3.1 pts+2.9 pts
    2024West ShoeburyLiberal Democrats-4.3 pts-1.5 pts-2.8 pts
    2024Blenheim ParkGreen+0.3 pts+3.1 pts-2.8 pts
    2024WestboroughGreen+0.3 pts+3.1 pts-2.8 pts
    2024St LaurenceLiberal Democrats+1.3 pts-1.5 pts+2.8 pts
    2024St. Luke'sLiberal Democrats-4.2 pts-1.5 pts-2.7 pts
    2024SouthchurchConfelicity+2.8 pts+0.1 pts+2.7 pts
    2024SouthchurchGreen+0.5 pts+3.1 pts-2.6 pts
    2024SouthchurchConservative+0.9 pts-1.7 pts+2.6 pts
    2024PrittlewellLiberal Democrats-4.0 pts-1.5 pts-2.5 pts
    2024PrittlewellConservative-4.2 pts-1.7 pts-2.5 pts
    2024St. Luke'sGreen+0.7 pts+3.1 pts-2.5 pts
    2024KursaalGreen+0.7 pts+3.1 pts-2.4 pts
    2024West ShoeburyConfelicity-2.3 pts+0.1 pts-2.4 pts
    2024West LeighLiberal Democrats-3.6 pts-1.5 pts-2.1 pts
    2024SouthchurchLiberal Democrats+0.6 pts-1.5 pts+2.1 pts
    2024Eastwood ParkGreen+1.1 pts+3.1 pts-2.1 pts
    2024ThorpeLiberal Democrats+0.4 pts-1.5 pts+1.9 pts
    2024ShoeburynessLiberal Democrats+0.4 pts-1.5 pts+1.9 pts
    2024ShoeburynessConservative-3.4 pts-1.7 pts-1.7 pts
    2024St LaurenceGreen+1.6 pts+3.1 pts-1.5 pts
    2024Blenheim ParkLiberal Democrats-0.0 pts-1.5 pts+1.5 pts
    2024VictoriaConfelicity-1.3 pts+0.1 pts-1.4 pts
    2024VictoriaConservative-3.2 pts-1.7 pts-1.4 pts
    2024MiltonConservative-0.4 pts-1.7 pts+1.3 pts
    2024MiltonLiberal Democrats-2.5 pts-1.5 pts-1.0 pts
    2024ThorpeGreen+2.1 pts+3.1 pts-1.0 pts
    2024West LeighConfelicity+1.0 pts+0.1 pts+0.9 pts
    2024ThorpeConfelicity+1.0 pts+0.1 pts+0.9 pts
    2024St. Luke'sConfelicity-0.8 pts+0.1 pts-0.9 pts
    2024ChalkwellLiberal Democrats-2.4 pts-1.5 pts-0.9 pts
    2024ThorpeLabour+10.9 pts+10.0 pts+0.9 pts
    2024ChalkwellGreen+3.9 pts+3.1 pts+0.8 pts
    2024PrittlewellConfelicity-0.7 pts+0.1 pts-0.8 pts
    2024WestboroughConfelicity-0.7 pts+0.1 pts-0.7 pts
    2024WestboroughConservative-1.0 pts-1.7 pts+0.7 pts
    2024MiltonConfelicity-0.6 pts+0.1 pts-0.7 pts
    2024MiltonHeritage Party-0.1 pts+0.6 pts-0.7 pts
    2024KursaalLiberal Democrats-0.9 pts-1.5 pts+0.6 pts
    2024Eastwood ParkConfelicity+0.6 pts+0.1 pts+0.5 pts
    2024VictoriaLiberal Democrats-1.0 pts-1.5 pts+0.5 pts
    2024BelfairsLiberal Democrats-1.0 pts-1.5 pts+0.5 pts
    2024BelfairsConfelicity+0.5 pts+0.1 pts+0.4 pts
    2024Blenheim ParkConfelicity-0.2 pts+0.1 pts-0.3 pts
    2024PrittlewellGreen+2.9 pts+3.1 pts-0.2 pts
    2024MiltonGreen+3.3 pts+3.1 pts+0.2 pts
    2024SouthchurchLabour+9.9 pts+10.0 pts-0.2 pts
    2024ChalkwellConfelicity-0.0 pts+0.1 pts-0.1 pts
    2024ShoeburynessConfelicity+0.0 pts+0.1 pts-0.0 pts
    2023Eastwood ParkLiberal Democrats+21.7 pts+0.6 pts+21.1 pts
    2023Blenheim ParkIndependent+23.2 pts+6.4 pts+16.8 pts
    2023ThorpeIndependent+23.2 pts+6.4 pts+16.8 pts
    2023West LeighLabour+2.4 pts-12.9 pts+15.3 pts
    2023St. Luke'sLabour+2.3 pts-12.9 pts+15.3 pts
    2023ChalkwellLabour+1.9 pts-12.9 pts+14.8 pts
    2023Eastwood ParkConservative-21.8 pts-7.6 pts-14.2 pts
    2023VictoriaLabour+0.4 pts-12.9 pts+13.3 pts
    2023BelfairsLabour-0.3 pts-12.9 pts+12.6 pts
    2023ThorpeConservative-19.9 pts-7.6 pts-12.3 pts
    2023ShoeburynessLabour-1.2 pts-12.9 pts+11.7 pts
    2023SouthchurchLabour-1.3 pts-12.9 pts+11.6 pts
    2023West ShoeburyLabour-1.4 pts-12.9 pts+11.6 pts
    2023Eastwood ParkLabour-1.4 pts-12.9 pts+11.5 pts
    2023ThorpeLabour-2.3 pts-12.9 pts+10.6 pts
    2023St. Luke'sIndependent-2.0 pts+6.4 pts-8.4 pts
    2023ChalkwellConservative+0.6 pts-7.6 pts+8.2 pts
    2023WestboroughLabour-5.3 pts-12.9 pts+7.6 pts
    2023MiltonGreen+8.1 pts+0.7 pts+7.4 pts
    2023West LeighConservative-1.3 pts-7.6 pts+6.3 pts
    2023West LeighLiberal Democrats-5.3 pts+0.6 pts-5.9 pts
    2023WestboroughConservative-1.9 pts-7.6 pts+5.7 pts
    2023ShoeburynessIndependent+0.8 pts+6.4 pts-5.6 pts
    2023Blenheim ParkConservative-13.0 pts-7.6 pts-5.4 pts
    2023MiltonLabour-7.6 pts-12.9 pts+5.3 pts
    2023ShoeburynessConservative-2.3 pts-7.6 pts+5.3 pts
    2023SouthchurchGreen-4.3 pts+0.7 pts-5.0 pts
    2023ChalkwellLiberal Democrats-4.2 pts+0.6 pts-4.8 pts
    2023VictoriaConservative-3.4 pts-7.6 pts+4.2 pts
    2023St. Luke'sLiberal Democrats+4.7 pts+0.6 pts+4.1 pts
    2023PrittlewellConservative-11.4 pts-7.6 pts-3.8 pts
    2023Blenheim ParkLiberal Democrats-2.6 pts+0.6 pts-3.2 pts
    2023PrittlewellLiberal Democrats-2.6 pts+0.6 pts-3.2 pts
    2023St LaurenceLiberal Democrats-2.5 pts+0.6 pts-3.1 pts
    2023WestboroughGreen+3.7 pts+0.7 pts+3.0 pts
    2023West ShoeburyConservative-4.6 pts-7.6 pts+3.0 pts
    2023SouthchurchLiberal Democrats-2.4 pts+0.6 pts-3.0 pts
    2023ThorpeGreen-1.9 pts+0.7 pts-2.6 pts
    2023PrittlewellGreen-1.8 pts+0.7 pts-2.5 pts
    2023St. Luke'sConservative-10.0 pts-7.6 pts-2.3 pts
    2023St LaurenceConservative-5.3 pts-7.6 pts+2.3 pts
    2023ChalkwellGreen+2.6 pts+0.7 pts+1.9 pts
    2023KursaalConservative-5.7 pts-7.6 pts+1.9 pts
    2023BelfairsIndependent+4.9 pts+6.4 pts-1.5 pts
    2023MiltonConservative-9.0 pts-7.6 pts-1.4 pts
    2023WestboroughLiberal Democrats-0.7 pts+0.6 pts-1.3 pts
    2023West LeighGreen+1.9 pts+0.7 pts+1.2 pts
    2023St. Luke'sGreen+1.9 pts+0.7 pts+1.2 pts
    2023ThorpeLiberal Democrats-0.6 pts+0.6 pts-1.2 pts
    2023BelfairsGreen+1.8 pts+0.7 pts+1.1 pts
    2023KursaalGreen+1.8 pts+0.7 pts+1.1 pts
    2023BelfairsLiberal Democrats-0.3 pts+0.6 pts-0.9 pts
    2023Blenheim ParkGreen+1.5 pts+0.7 pts+0.8 pts
    2023KursaalLiberal Democrats+1.3 pts+0.6 pts+0.7 pts
    2023St LaurenceGreen-0.0 pts+0.7 pts-0.7 pts
    2023BelfairsConservative-6.9 pts-7.6 pts+0.7 pts
    2023VictoriaLiberal Democrats+1.3 pts+0.6 pts+0.7 pts
    2023Eastwood ParkGreen+0.1 pts+0.7 pts-0.6 pts
    2023PrittlewellConfelicity+2.2 pts+2.8 pts-0.6 pts
    2023VictoriaGreen+0.2 pts+0.7 pts-0.5 pts
    2023SouthchurchConservative-7.1 pts-7.6 pts+0.5 pts
    2023ShoeburynessGreen+0.2 pts+0.7 pts-0.5 pts
    2023West ShoeburyLiberal Democrats+0.3 pts+0.6 pts-0.3 pts
    2023MiltonLiberal Democrats+0.9 pts+0.6 pts+0.3 pts
    2023ShoeburynessLiberal Democrats+0.5 pts+0.6 pts-0.1 pts
    2023West ShoeburyGreen+0.7 pts+0.7 pts+0.0 pts
    2022WestboroughLabour+19.6 pts+4.8 pts+14.9 pts
    2022ThorpeConservative+13.9 pts-0.0 pts+14.0 pts
    2022KursaalLabour+15.2 pts+4.8 pts+10.5 pts
    2022ShoeburynessIndependent+5.1 pts-4.9 pts+10.0 pts
    2022St. Luke'sLabour+13.5 pts+4.8 pts+8.7 pts
    2022BelfairsIndependent+3.8 pts-4.9 pts+8.7 pts
    2022PrittlewellLabour-3.5 pts+4.8 pts-8.2 pts
    2022WestboroughLiberal Democrats-6.6 pts+1.6 pts-8.2 pts
    2022KursaalConservative-8.2 pts-0.0 pts-8.2 pts
    2022ShoeburynessConservative-7.8 pts-0.0 pts-7.8 pts
    2022St LaurenceLabour+12.4 pts+4.8 pts+7.6 pts
    2022VictoriaGreen-8.1 pts-1.6 pts-6.5 pts
    2022ThorpeLabour-1.6 pts+4.8 pts-6.3 pts
    2022West LeighLabour-1.5 pts+4.8 pts-6.3 pts
    2022Eastwood ParkLiberal Democrats+7.6 pts+1.6 pts+6.1 pts
    2022West ShoeburyConservative+6.0 pts-0.0 pts+6.0 pts
    2022SouthchurchGreen+3.7 pts-1.6 pts+5.3 pts
    2022BelfairsLabour-0.6 pts+4.8 pts-5.3 pts
    2022Eastwood ParkLabour-0.5 pts+4.8 pts-5.3 pts
    2022Eastwood ParkConservative-5.3 pts-0.0 pts-5.3 pts
    2022KursaalGreen-6.1 pts-1.6 pts-4.5 pts
    2022St. Luke'sIndependent-9.2 pts-4.9 pts-4.3 pts
    2022SouthchurchConservative-4.3 pts-0.0 pts-4.3 pts
    2022West ShoeburyLabour+8.6 pts+4.8 pts+3.9 pts
    2022West ShoeburyGreen+2.2 pts-1.6 pts+3.8 pts
    2022SouthchurchLabour+1.1 pts+4.8 pts-3.7 pts
    2022ChalkwellLabour+1.2 pts+4.8 pts-3.6 pts
    2022St LaurenceLiberal Democrats+5.0 pts+1.6 pts+3.4 pts
    2022Blenheim ParkIndependent-1.6 pts-4.9 pts+3.3 pts
    2022PrittlewellLiberal Democrats+4.8 pts+1.6 pts+3.2 pts
    2022St LaurenceConservative+3.0 pts-0.0 pts+3.0 pts
    2022VictoriaConservative-2.9 pts-0.0 pts-2.9 pts
    2022St LaurenceGreen+1.1 pts-1.6 pts+2.7 pts
    2022St. Luke'sConservative-2.6 pts-0.0 pts-2.6 pts
    2022MiltonConservative-2.6 pts-0.0 pts-2.6 pts
    2022KursaalLiberal Democrats-1.0 pts+1.6 pts-2.6 pts
    2022BelfairsConservative-2.5 pts-0.0 pts-2.5 pts
    2022VictoriaLabour+7.2 pts+4.8 pts+2.4 pts
    2022SouthchurchLiberal Democrats+3.8 pts+1.6 pts+2.2 pts
    2022ThorpeIndependent-7.1 pts-4.9 pts-2.2 pts
    2022PrittlewellConservative+2.1 pts-0.0 pts+2.1 pts
    2022West ShoeburyLiberal Democrats+3.6 pts+1.6 pts+2.0 pts
    2022St. Luke'sLiberal Democrats-0.3 pts+1.6 pts-1.9 pts
    2022ChalkwellLiberal Democrats+3.2 pts+1.6 pts+1.7 pts
    2022St. Luke'sGreen-3.2 pts-1.6 pts-1.7 pts
    2022ChalkwellWEP-1.7 pts-0.1 pts-1.6 pts
    2022Blenheim ParkLiberal Democrats-0.1 pts+1.6 pts-1.6 pts
    2022Blenheim ParkConservative-1.6 pts-0.0 pts-1.6 pts
    2022ThorpeLiberal Democrats+0.2 pts+1.6 pts-1.4 pts
    2022West LeighLiberal Democrats+2.9 pts+1.6 pts+1.3 pts
    2022ShoeburynessLiberal Democrats+0.4 pts+1.6 pts-1.2 pts
    2022Blenheim ParkLabour+5.9 pts+4.8 pts+1.1 pts
    2022Blenheim ParkGreen-2.6 pts-1.6 pts-1.0 pts
    2022PrittlewellGreen-0.7 pts-1.6 pts+0.9 pts
    2022MiltonLiberal Democrats+0.7 pts+1.6 pts-0.8 pts
    2022WestboroughConservative-0.8 pts-0.0 pts-0.8 pts
    2022ShoeburynessGreen-0.8 pts-1.6 pts+0.8 pts
    2022VictoriaLiberal Democrats+0.8 pts+1.6 pts-0.8 pts
    2022MiltonLabour+4.1 pts+4.8 pts-0.7 pts
    2022ShoeburynessLabour+5.4 pts+4.8 pts+0.6 pts
    2022ChalkwellConservative-0.6 pts-0.0 pts-0.6 pts
    2022MiltonGreen-2.2 pts-1.6 pts-0.6 pts
    2022BelfairsGreen-2.1 pts-1.6 pts-0.5 pts
    2022West LeighConservative+0.5 pts-0.0 pts+0.5 pts
    2022ChalkwellGreen-2.0 pts-1.6 pts-0.4 pts
    2022WestboroughGreen-1.2 pts-1.6 pts+0.3 pts
    2022Eastwood ParkGreen-1.8 pts-1.6 pts-0.3 pts
    2022West LeighGreen-1.8 pts-1.6 pts-0.3 pts
    2022BelfairsLiberal Democrats+1.3 pts+1.6 pts-0.2 pts
    2022ThorpeGreen-1.5 pts-1.6 pts+0.1 pts
    2021St. Luke'sIndependent-32.3 pts-11.8 pts-20.5 pts
    2021Blenheim ParkIndependent-28.3 pts-11.8 pts-16.6 pts
    2021SouthchurchConservative+30.3 pts+14.0 pts+16.3 pts
    2021BelfairsIndependent+4.0 pts-11.8 pts+15.8 pts
    2021Eastwood ParkConservative+28.2 pts+14.0 pts+14.2 pts
    2021ThorpeIndependent-25.7 pts-11.8 pts-14.0 pts
    2021SouthchurchIndependent-23.9 pts-11.8 pts-12.1 pts
    2021WestboroughLiberal Democrats+8.8 pts-3.1 pts+11.9 pts
    2021ShoeburynessIndependent-0.7 pts-11.8 pts+11.1 pts
    2021KursaalLiberal Democrats-12.6 pts-3.1 pts-9.5 pts
    2021ShoeburynessLabour-4.5 pts+4.7 pts-9.1 pts
    2021WestboroughConservative+5.3 pts+14.0 pts-8.8 pts
    2021MiltonConservative+5.3 pts+14.0 pts-8.7 pts
    2021St LaurenceIndependent-3.1 pts-11.8 pts+8.7 pts
    2021West LeighLabour-3.3 pts+4.7 pts-7.9 pts
    2021KursaalLabour+12.4 pts+4.7 pts+7.7 pts
    2021KursaalGreen-6.9 pts+0.9 pts-7.7 pts
    2021KursaalConservative+21.2 pts+14.0 pts+7.2 pts
    2021PrittlewellLiberal Democrats-9.1 pts-3.1 pts-6.0 pts
    2021St. Luke'sConservative+19.9 pts+14.0 pts+5.9 pts
    2021BelfairsConservative+8.7 pts+14.0 pts-5.3 pts
    2021PrittlewellLabour+9.7 pts+4.7 pts+5.1 pts
    2021West ShoeburyLabour-0.4 pts+4.7 pts-5.1 pts
    2021West ShoeburyIndependent-6.8 pts-11.8 pts+4.9 pts
    2021St LaurenceLiberal Democrats-8.1 pts-3.1 pts-4.9 pts
    2021St LaurenceLabour+9.6 pts+4.7 pts+4.9 pts
    2021ChalkwellConservative+9.2 pts+14.0 pts-4.8 pts
    2021Blenheim ParkLabour+9.3 pts+4.7 pts+4.7 pts
    2021St. Luke'sLabour+9.3 pts+4.7 pts+4.6 pts
    2021VictoriaConservative+9.5 pts+14.0 pts-4.5 pts
    2021Eastwood ParkLiberal Democrats-7.6 pts-3.1 pts-4.5 pts
    2021Blenheim ParkLiberal Democrats+1.3 pts-3.1 pts+4.4 pts
    2021VictoriaGreen+5.1 pts+0.9 pts+4.2 pts
    2021PrittlewellIndependent-15.7 pts-11.8 pts-3.9 pts
    2021ChalkwellLabour+0.9 pts+4.7 pts-3.8 pts
    2021MiltonLabour+0.9 pts+4.7 pts-3.8 pts
    2021WestboroughGreen-2.7 pts+0.9 pts-3.6 pts
    2021Eastwood ParkLabour+1.5 pts+4.7 pts-3.1 pts
    2021St. Luke'sLiberal Democrats-0.1 pts-3.1 pts+3.0 pts
    2021VictoriaLabour+1.8 pts+4.7 pts-2.8 pts
    2021WestboroughIndependent-14.6 pts-11.8 pts-2.8 pts
    2021MiltonLiberal Democrats-5.7 pts-3.1 pts-2.6 pts
    2021BelfairsGreen-1.6 pts+0.9 pts-2.5 pts
    2021St. Luke'sGreen+3.3 pts+0.9 pts+2.4 pts
    2021ThorpeLiberal Democrats-0.8 pts-3.1 pts+2.3 pts
    2021SouthchurchGreen+3.1 pts+0.9 pts+2.3 pts
    2021WestboroughLabour+2.4 pts+4.7 pts-2.3 pts
    2021West LeighLiberal Democrats-1.0 pts-3.1 pts+2.1 pts
    2021BelfairsLabour+2.5 pts+4.7 pts-2.1 pts
    2021SouthchurchLiberal Democrats-1.0 pts-3.1 pts+2.1 pts
    2021West LeighGreen+2.9 pts+0.9 pts+2.1 pts
    2021SouthchurchLabour+2.6 pts+4.7 pts-2.0 pts
    2021Blenheim ParkConservative+15.9 pts+14.0 pts+1.9 pts
    2021VictoriaLiberal Democrats-1.4 pts-3.1 pts+1.8 pts
    2021MiltonGreen-0.5 pts+0.9 pts-1.4 pts
    2021PrittlewellConservative+15.3 pts+14.0 pts+1.3 pts
    2021ShoeburynessLiberal Democrats-1.8 pts-3.1 pts+1.3 pts
    2021ThorpeGreen+2.1 pts+0.9 pts+1.2 pts
    2021West ShoeburyConservative+15.2 pts+14.0 pts+1.2 pts
    2021PrittlewellGreen-0.2 pts+0.9 pts-1.1 pts
    2021ShoeburynessGreen-0.2 pts+0.9 pts-1.0 pts
    2021Blenheim ParkGreen+1.8 pts+0.9 pts+1.0 pts
    2021St LaurenceGreen-0.1 pts+0.9 pts-1.0 pts
    2021BelfairsLiberal Democrats-2.2 pts-3.1 pts+0.9 pts
    2021West LeighConservative+14.9 pts+14.0 pts+0.9 pts
    2021ThorpeConservative+14.9 pts+14.0 pts+0.9 pts
    2021ThorpeLabour+5.5 pts+4.7 pts+0.9 pts
    2021ShoeburynessConservative+13.2 pts+14.0 pts-0.8 pts
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