Southwark: wards that bucked the trend
Southwark: in 2022, 42 ward results beat the expected swing and 45 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Chaucer (+46.3 pts actual vs +1.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Chaucer | Labour | +46.3 pts | +1.2 pts | +45.0 pts |
| 2022 | Nunhead & Queen's Road | Green | +22.5 pts | +1.2 pts | +21.3 pts |
| 2022 | Nunhead & Queen's Road | Labour | -17.5 pts | +1.2 pts | -18.8 pts |
| 2022 | Dulwich Village | Labour | -14.3 pts | +1.2 pts | -15.6 pts |
| 2022 | Dulwich Hill | Labour | -11.7 pts | +1.2 pts | -13.0 pts |
| 2022 | London Bridge & West Bermondsey | Liberal Democrats | -11.1 pts | -1.1 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2022 | St Giles | Green | -8.4 pts | +1.2 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2022 | Rotherhithe | Liberal Democrats | -10.4 pts | -1.1 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2022 | Goose Green | Labour | +10.5 pts | +1.2 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2022 | Dulwich Wood | Labour | -7.9 pts | +1.2 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2022 | Dulwich Hill | Liberal Democrats | +7.9 pts | -1.1 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2022 | Dulwich Wood | Green | +9.8 pts | +1.2 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2022 | Faraday | Labour | -7.2 pts | +1.2 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2022 | Goose Green | Liberal Democrats | -8.5 pts | -1.1 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2022 | Dulwich Hill | Conservative | +7.4 pts | +0.1 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2022 | Peckham Rye | Labour | +8.4 pts | +1.2 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2022 | Camberwell Green | Green | -5.0 pts | +1.2 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2022 | St Giles | Labour | +7.3 pts | +1.2 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2022 | Dulwich Village | Conservative | -5.9 pts | +0.1 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2022 | Champion Hill | Green | -4.1 pts | +1.2 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2022 | Peckham Rye | Green | +6.4 pts | +1.2 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2022 | Dulwich Hill | Green | -3.9 pts | +1.2 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2022 | London Bridge & West Bermondsey | Green | +6.2 pts | +1.2 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2022 | Camberwell Green | Liberal Democrats | +3.3 pts | -1.1 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2022 | Borough & Bankside | Liberal Democrats | +3.0 pts | -1.1 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2022 | Rotherhithe | Green | +5.1 pts | +1.2 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2022 | Goose Green | WEP | -4.3 pts | -0.4 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2022 | London Bridge & West Bermondsey | Labour | +5.1 pts | +1.2 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2022 | Peckham Rye | Liberal Democrats | -4.8 pts | -1.1 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Old Kent Road | Labour | -2.5 pts | +1.2 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Chaucer | Green | -2.4 pts | +1.2 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Chaucer | Liberal Democrats | -4.4 pts | -1.1 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2022 | Champion Hill | Labour | +4.6 pts | +1.2 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2022 | South Bermondsey | Liberal Democrats | +2.2 pts | -1.1 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2022 | North Bermondsey | Green | -1.9 pts | +1.2 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Surrey Docks | Conservative | -3.0 pts | +0.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Surrey Docks | Liberal Democrats | -4.0 pts | -1.1 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2022 | South Bermondsey | Conservative | +2.9 pts | +0.1 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2022 | Nunhead & Queen's Road | Conservative | -2.7 pts | +0.1 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Newington | Labour | -1.5 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2022 | North Walworth | Green | +3.8 pts | +1.2 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2022 | St George's | Liberal Democrats | +1.5 pts | -1.1 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Faraday | Green | +3.8 pts | +1.2 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2022 | South Bermondsey | Labour | +3.7 pts | +1.2 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Surrey Docks | Labour | +3.7 pts | +1.2 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2022 | St George's | Labour | -1.1 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2022 | Rye Lane | Labour | -1.0 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2022 | North Bermondsey | Labour | +3.4 pts | +1.2 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2022 | Surrey Docks | Green | +3.3 pts | +1.2 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2022 | Champion Hill | Liberal Democrats | +1.0 pts | -1.1 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Old Kent Road | Liberal Democrats | -3.1 pts | -1.1 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2022 | North Walworth | Labour | -0.7 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2022 | North Bermondsey | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | -1.1 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Dulwich Village | Liberal Democrats | -3.0 pts | -1.1 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Old Kent Road | Conservative | +1.9 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Goose Green | Green | +2.9 pts | +1.2 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Peckham Rye | Conservative | -1.7 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Rotherhithe | Labour | +2.9 pts | +1.2 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2022 | St George's | Conservative | -1.4 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2022 | St Giles | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | -1.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Borough & Bankside | Conservative | +1.5 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2022 | Camberwell Green | Conservative | -1.3 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2022 | Chaucer | Conservative | -1.3 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Rye Lane | Liberal Democrats | +0.1 pts | -1.1 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Old Kent Road | Green | +2.4 pts | +1.2 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Nunhead & Queen's Road | Liberal Democrats | -2.3 pts | -1.1 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Rye Lane | Green | +0.1 pts | +1.2 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Newington | Green | +2.2 pts | +1.2 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Borough & Bankside | Labour | +2.3 pts | +1.2 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2022 | North Walworth | Conservative | -0.8 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Faraday | Liberal Democrats | -0.2 pts | -1.1 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Dulwich Wood | Conservative | -0.7 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | North Bermondsey | Conservative | -0.7 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Faraday | Conservative | +0.8 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Newington | Conservative | +0.8 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Goose Green | Conservative | -0.6 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2022 | St Giles | Conservative | +0.8 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Rye Lane | Conservative | -0.4 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2022 | North Walworth | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | -1.1 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Newington | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | -1.1 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Camberwell Green | Labour | +1.6 pts | +1.2 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Dulwich Village | Green | +1.5 pts | +1.2 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Rotherhithe | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | St George's | Green | +1.0 pts | +1.2 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | London Bridge & West Bermondsey | Conservative | -0.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Dulwich Wood | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | -1.1 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Champion Hill | Conservative | +0.1 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.0 pts |