Staffordshire: wards that bucked the trend
Staffordshire: in 2021, 110 ward results beat the expected swing and 69 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Uttoxeter Town (-29.0 pts actual vs +2.0 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Uttoxeter Town | Conservative | -29.0 pts | +2.0 pts | -31.0 pts |
| 2021 | Kidsgrove | Conservative | +29.3 pts | +2.0 pts | +27.3 pts |
| 2021 | Keele, Knutton and Silverdale | Labour | -28.4 pts | -3.5 pts | -24.9 pts |
| 2021 | Gnosall and Doxey | Green | +25.1 pts | +2.0 pts | +23.2 pts |
| 2021 | Audley and Chesterton | Conservative | +22.7 pts | +2.0 pts | +20.7 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford Trent Valley | Conservative | -18.6 pts | +2.0 pts | -20.6 pts |
| 2021 | Biddulph South and Endon | Conservative | +22.0 pts | +2.0 pts | +20.0 pts |
| 2021 | Biddulph South and Endon | Liberal Democrats | -20.1 pts | -1.8 pts | -18.3 pts |
| 2021 | Gnosall and Doxey | Conservative | -16.4 pts | +2.0 pts | -18.3 pts |
| 2021 | Perton | Conservative | -16.2 pts | +2.0 pts | -18.2 pts |
| 2021 | Talke and Red Street | Conservative | +20.2 pts | +2.0 pts | +18.2 pts |
| 2021 | Chadsmoor | Conservative | +18.4 pts | +2.0 pts | +16.5 pts |
| 2021 | Burntwood South | Labour | +12.4 pts | -3.5 pts | +15.8 pts |
| 2021 | Westlands and Thistleberry | Liberal Democrats | -16.9 pts | -1.8 pts | -15.1 pts |
| 2021 | Amington | Conservative | +16.7 pts | +2.0 pts | +14.7 pts |
| 2021 | Keele, Knutton and Silverdale | Conservative | +16.0 pts | +2.0 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2021 | Stone Rural | Conservative | -11.5 pts | +2.0 pts | -13.4 pts |
| 2021 | Newcastle Rural | Liberal Democrats | -15.2 pts | -1.8 pts | -13.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bolebridge | Conservative | +15.2 pts | +2.0 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2021 | Stonydelph | Conservative | +14.3 pts | +2.0 pts | +12.3 pts |
| 2021 | Audley and Chesterton | Liberal Democrats | -13.8 pts | -1.8 pts | -12.0 pts |
| 2021 | Westlands and Thistleberry | Conservative | +14.0 pts | +2.0 pts | +12.0 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford North | Conservative | +13.9 pts | +2.0 pts | +11.9 pts |
| 2021 | Newcastle Rural | Conservative | -9.3 pts | +2.0 pts | -11.3 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural North | Conservative | -8.9 pts | +2.0 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2021 | Burton Town | Labour | +7.0 pts | -3.5 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2021 | Burntwood South | Conservative | -8.4 pts | +2.0 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2021 | Burntwood South | Liberal Democrats | +8.6 pts | -1.8 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2021 | Eccleshall | Labour | +6.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2021 | Hednesford and Rawnsley | Labour | +6.6 pts | -3.5 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2021 | Churnet Valley | Labour | +6.5 pts | -3.5 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield City South | Conservative | -7.8 pts | +2.0 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2021 | Codsall | Conservative | -7.6 pts | +2.0 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2021 | Perrycrofts | Conservative | -6.8 pts | +2.0 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2021 | Westlands and Thistleberry | Labour | +5.3 pts | -3.5 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2021 | Wombourne | Conservative | -6.6 pts | +2.0 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2021 | Dove | Labour | +5.0 pts | -3.5 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford North | Green | -6.5 pts | +2.0 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2021 | Uttoxeter Rural | Conservative | -6.3 pts | +2.0 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2021 | Kinver | Conservative | +10.1 pts | +2.0 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2021 | Eccleshall | Conservative | -5.9 pts | +2.0 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural North | Labour | +4.4 pts | -3.5 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural East | Liberal Democrats | +5.8 pts | -1.8 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2021 | Watling North | Conservative | +9.4 pts | +2.0 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2021 | Burton Town | Conservative | -5.4 pts | +2.0 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield City South | Labour | +3.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Penkridge | Labour | -10.7 pts | -3.5 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Kinver | Green | +9.1 pts | +2.0 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford South East | Labour | +3.7 pts | -3.5 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2021 | Needwood Forest | Conservative | -5.0 pts | +2.0 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2021 | Etching Hill and Heath | Labour | +3.5 pts | -3.5 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2021 | Etching Hill and Heath | Conservative | +8.8 pts | +2.0 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2021 | Dove | Conservative | -4.8 pts | +2.0 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2021 | Wombourne | Labour | +3.3 pts | -3.5 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2021 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Conservative | +8.4 pts | +2.0 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2021 | Caverswall | Labour | +2.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Stone Rural | Independent | +8.2 pts | +1.9 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford North | Labour | +2.6 pts | -3.5 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2021 | Burton Trent | Conservative | +8.0 pts | +2.0 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield City North | Conservative | -4.0 pts | +2.0 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Burton Trent | Labour | +2.4 pts | -3.5 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2021 | Codsall | Green | +7.8 pts | +2.0 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2021 | Churnet Valley | Conservative | +7.8 pts | +2.0 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2021 | Cheadle and Checkley | Conservative | -3.6 pts | +2.0 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2021 | Watling South | Conservative | +7.4 pts | +2.0 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2021 | Amington | Labour | -8.8 pts | -3.5 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford Central | Green | +7.3 pts | +2.0 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2021 | Stonydelph | Labour | -8.8 pts | -3.5 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2021 | Gnosall and Doxey | Labour | -8.8 pts | -3.5 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2021 | Kinver | Labour | +1.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2021 | Uttoxeter Town | Labour | -8.7 pts | -3.5 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2021 | Burton Tower | Conservative | -3.1 pts | +2.0 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2021 | Cannock Town Centre | Conservative | +6.8 pts | +2.0 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2021 | Kidsgrove | Labour | -3.3 pts | +1.6 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2021 | Churnet Valley | Green | +6.8 pts | +2.0 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2021 | Cheslyn Hay, Essington and Great Wyrley | Conservative | +6.7 pts | +2.0 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2021 | Burntwood North | Labour | +1.2 pts | -3.5 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural South | Labour | +1.1 pts | -3.5 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Stone Urban | Labour | +0.9 pts | -3.5 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2021 | Penkridge | Green | +6.4 pts | +2.0 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2021 | Amington | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.4 pts | -5.0 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2021 | Horninglow and Stretton | Conservative | -2.0 pts | +2.0 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural North | Liberal Democrats | -5.7 pts | -1.8 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Newcastle South | Conservative | +5.6 pts | +2.0 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield City North | Labour | +0.1 pts | -3.5 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural East | Labour | +0.1 pts | -3.5 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Brewood | Green | +5.5 pts | +2.0 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural West | Labour | +0.1 pts | -3.5 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford Trent Valley | Green | -1.4 pts | +2.0 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bradwell, Porthill and Wolstanton | Labour | -6.8 pts | -3.5 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Perton | Green | -1.3 pts | +2.0 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Eccleshall | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.8 pts | -5.0 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Stonydelph | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.3 pts | -5.0 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Codsall | Labour | -0.3 pts | -3.5 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Biddulph North | Labour | -0.3 pts | -3.5 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield City South | Green | +5.1 pts | +2.0 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2021 | Biddulph North | Conservative | -1.0 pts | +2.0 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2021 | Needwood Forest | Labour | -0.5 pts | -3.5 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2021 | Uttoxeter Rural | Labour | -0.7 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Perton | Labour | -6.2 pts | -3.5 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural North | Green | +4.7 pts | +2.0 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford South East | Green | +4.6 pts | +2.0 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford South East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.4 pts | -5.0 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Leek Rural | Conservative | -0.6 pts | +2.0 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Burton Tower | Labour | -6.0 pts | -3.5 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.5 pts | -5.0 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Stone Urban | Independent | +4.4 pts | +1.9 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Cannock Villages | Green | -0.4 pts | +2.0 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bradwell, Porthill and Wolstanton | Conservative | +4.3 pts | +2.0 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Penkridge | Conservative | +4.3 pts | +2.0 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Leek Rural | Green | +4.3 pts | +2.0 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural South | Liberal Democrats | +0.5 pts | -1.8 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Cannock Villages | Labour | -5.8 pts | -3.5 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bolebridge | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.7 pts | -5.0 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | May Bank and Cross Heath | Conservative | +4.3 pts | +2.0 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Brewood | Labour | -1.2 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Cheslyn Hay, Essington and Great Wyrley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.2 pts | -5.0 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural West | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | -1.8 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Burntwood North | Conservative | +4.1 pts | +2.0 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.0 pts | -5.0 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2021 | May Bank and Cross Heath | Labour | -1.4 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Liberal Democrats | -3.8 pts | -1.8 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Etching Hill and Heath | Green | +4.0 pts | +2.0 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Watling North | Labour | -1.6 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Stone Urban | Conservative | +0.1 pts | +2.0 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Bolebridge | Labour | -5.3 pts | -3.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Leek South | Liberal Democrats | +0.1 pts | -1.8 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Cheslyn Hay, Essington and Great Wyrley | Labour | -1.6 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Brereton and Ravenhill | Labour | -1.7 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford Trent Valley | Labour | -1.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Stone Urban | Green | +0.3 pts | +2.0 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Watling North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.4 pts | -5.0 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Biddulph South and Endon | Labour | -1.9 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Chadsmoor | Green | +3.5 pts | +2.0 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.6 pts | -5.0 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield City North | Green | +3.4 pts | +2.0 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Cheadle and Checkley | Green | +3.4 pts | +2.0 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Burton Town | Liberal Democrats | -3.1 pts | -1.8 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural West | Conservative | +3.3 pts | +2.0 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Wombourne | Green | +3.3 pts | +2.0 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2021 | May Bank and Cross Heath | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | -1.8 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Needwood Forest | Green | +0.8 pts | +2.0 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Leek Rural | Labour | -2.3 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Brewood | Conservative | +3.1 pts | +2.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Caverswall | Conservative | +3.1 pts | +2.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Newcastle South | Green | +3.0 pts | +2.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford Central | Conservative | +3.0 pts | +2.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Cannock Town Centre | Green | +0.9 pts | +2.0 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural South | Conservative | +3.0 pts | +2.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Eccleshall | Green | +0.9 pts | +2.0 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Cheadle and Checkley | Labour | -2.5 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford West | Green | +2.9 pts | +2.0 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Burton Tower | Green | +1.0 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Leek Rural | Independent | +2.8 pts | +1.9 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Newcastle South | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | -1.8 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Horninglow and Stretton | Labour | -4.3 pts | -3.5 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Stonydelph | Green | +2.8 pts | +2.0 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield City South | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | -1.8 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Stone Rural | Labour | -2.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford West | Conservative | +2.7 pts | +2.0 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Talke and Red Street | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | -1.8 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Keele, Knutton and Silverdale | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -1.8 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield City North | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -1.8 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Stafford South East | Conservative | +1.4 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Keele, Knutton and Silverdale | Green | +1.4 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Leek South | Conservative | +1.4 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Cannock Villages | Conservative | +1.5 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Lichfield Rural East | Conservative | +1.5 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Watling South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.5 pts | -5.0 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Horninglow and Stretton | Green | +1.5 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Amington | Green | +1.5 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Perrycrofts | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.4 pts | -5.0 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Newcastle South | Labour | -3.2 pts | -3.5 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Westlands and Thistleberry | Green | +1.7 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bradwell, Porthill and Wolstanton | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | -1.8 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Cheslyn Hay, Essington and Great Wyrley | Green | +2.1 pts | +2.0 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Audley and Chesterton | Labour | -3.5 pts | -3.5 pts | -0.0 pts |
| 2021 | Hednesford and Rawnsley | Conservative | +2.0 pts | +2.0 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2021 | Burton Town | Green | +2.0 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.0 pts |