Stockton-on-Tees: wards that bucked the trend
Stockton-on-Tees: in 2019, 34 ward results beat the expected swing and 38 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Fairfield (-31.1 pts actual vs +2.1 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Fairfield | Conservative | -31.1 pts | +2.1 pts | -33.2 pts |
| 2019 | Eaglescliffe | Conservative | +25.8 pts | +2.1 pts | +23.6 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham North | Labour | +17.9 pts | -5.4 pts | +23.3 pts |
| 2019 | Parkfield and Oxbridge | Labour | +13.7 pts | -5.4 pts | +19.1 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham South | Labour | +11.7 pts | -5.4 pts | +17.0 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree | Liberal Democrats | +15.7 pts | -0.4 pts | +16.1 pts |
| 2019 | Village | Labour | -21.0 pts | -5.4 pts | -15.7 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham West | Independent | +19.7 pts | +7.8 pts | +11.9 pts |
| 2019 | Norton South | Labour | +6.3 pts | -5.4 pts | +11.7 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree | Conservative | -9.3 pts | +2.1 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ingleby Barwick East | IBIS | -13.5 pts | -2.1 pts | -11.4 pts |
| 2019 | Yarm | Conservative | +13.4 pts | +2.1 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree | Labour | -16.5 pts | -5.4 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2019 | Norton North | Labour | +5.8 pts | -5.4 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2019 | Fairfield | Labour | -16.5 pts | -5.4 pts | -11.1 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham East | Green | +10.4 pts | +0.1 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2019 | Ingleby Barwick West | IBIS | -12.1 pts | -2.1 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2019 | Eaglescliffe | Liberal Democrats | -10.1 pts | -0.4 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2019 | Mandale & Victoria | Conservative | -7.3 pts | +2.1 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2019 | Parkfield and Oxbridge | Conservative | -7.2 pts | +2.1 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Western Parishes | Labour | +3.5 pts | -5.4 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2019 | Mandale & Victoria | Labour | -13.9 pts | -5.4 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2019 | Stainsby Hill | Labour | -13.1 pts | -5.4 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Village | Conservative | -5.5 pts | +2.1 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham East | Labour | +2.2 pts | -5.4 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Parkfield and Oxbridge | Liberal Democrats | +6.0 pts | -0.4 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Stainsby Hill | Conservative | -4.3 pts | +2.1 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Norton West | Conservative | +8.2 pts | +2.1 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2019 | Newtown | Conservative | -3.4 pts | +2.1 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2019 | Norton North | Conservative | +7.5 pts | +2.1 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hartburn | Conservative | +7.5 pts | +2.1 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Stockton Town Centre | Conservative | -3.2 pts | +2.1 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Eaglescliffe | Labour | -10.3 pts | -5.4 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hardwick & Salters Lane | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.8 pts | -4.1 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Yarm | Labour | -10.0 pts | -5.4 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Newtown | Labour | -0.9 pts | -5.4 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Northern Parishes | Conservative | -2.3 pts | +2.1 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Ingleby Barwick East | Labour | -9.8 pts | -5.4 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Grangefield | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.2 pts | -4.1 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hardwick & Salters Lane | Labour | -1.0 pts | -5.4 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Ingleby Barwick West | Conservative | -2.1 pts | +2.1 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Norton West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.1 pts | -4.1 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham Central | Liberal Democrats | +3.3 pts | -0.4 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hartburn | Labour | -9.1 pts | -5.4 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Roseworth | Labour | -1.8 pts | -5.4 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Norton South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.7 pts | -4.1 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Norton West | Labour | -8.1 pts | -5.4 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Western Parishes | Conservative | +4.8 pts | +2.1 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Roseworth | Conservative | +4.7 pts | +2.1 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.6 pts | -4.1 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.8 pts | -4.1 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Stockton Town Centre | Labour | -7.7 pts | -5.4 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Grangefield | Conservative | +4.1 pts | +2.1 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hardwick & Salters Lane | Conservative | +0.3 pts | +2.1 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham Central | Labour | -3.5 pts | -5.4 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham North | Conservative | +0.4 pts | +2.1 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Western Parishes | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.4 pts | -4.1 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Grangefield | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | -0.4 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Norton South | Conservative | +0.6 pts | +2.1 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham West | Labour | -6.7 pts | -5.4 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Roseworth | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.9 pts | -4.1 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.3 pts | -4.1 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham South | Conservative | +3.3 pts | +2.1 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Ingleby Barwick West | Labour | -6.6 pts | -5.4 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham East | Conservative | +0.9 pts | +2.1 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham West | Conservative | +1.1 pts | +2.1 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Northern Parishes | Labour | -4.6 pts | -5.4 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Fairfield | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | -0.4 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Fairfield | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.6 pts | -4.1 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ingleby Barwick East | Conservative | +1.8 pts | +2.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Grangefield | Labour | -5.6 pts | -5.4 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Billingham Central | Conservative | +2.0 pts | +2.1 pts | -0.1 pts |