Stoke On Trent: wards that bucked the trend
Stoke On Trent: in 2019, 35 ward results beat the expected swing and 38 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Burslem Central (-18.2 pts actual vs +12.7 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Burslem Central | Conservative | -18.2 pts | +12.7 pts | -30.9 pts |
| 2019 | Sneyd Green | Conservative | -16.9 pts | +12.7 pts | -29.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hanford and Trentham | Conservative | +39.6 pts | +12.7 pts | +26.9 pts |
| 2019 | Penkhull and Stoke | Conservative | -11.9 pts | +12.7 pts | -24.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hartshill and Basford | Labour | +21.5 pts | -0.9 pts | +22.4 pts |
| 2019 | Meir Hay | Conservative | +32.7 pts | +12.7 pts | +20.0 pts |
| 2019 | Fenton West & Mount Pleasant | Conservative | -7.3 pts | +12.7 pts | -20.0 pts |
| 2019 | Weston Coyney | Conservative | +32.5 pts | +12.7 pts | +19.9 pts |
| 2019 | Boothen and Oak Hill | Labour | +18.3 pts | -0.9 pts | +19.2 pts |
| 2019 | Burslem Park | Conservative | -6.5 pts | +12.7 pts | -19.1 pts |
| 2019 | Hollybush and Longton West | Conservative | -5.6 pts | +12.7 pts | -18.3 pts |
| 2019 | Great Chell & Packmoor | Conservative | -5.5 pts | +12.7 pts | -18.1 pts |
| 2019 | Meir North | Conservative | -5.1 pts | +12.7 pts | -17.7 pts |
| 2019 | Joiner's Square | Labour | +16.3 pts | -0.9 pts | +17.2 pts |
| 2019 | Goldenhill & Sandyford | Labour | -17.6 pts | -0.9 pts | -16.7 pts |
| 2019 | Dresden & Florence | Labour | -17.3 pts | -0.9 pts | -16.4 pts |
| 2019 | Ford Green & Smallthorne | Conservative | -3.6 pts | +12.7 pts | -16.3 pts |
| 2019 | Tunstall | Conservative | -3.4 pts | +12.7 pts | -16.0 pts |
| 2019 | Fenton East | Conservative | -2.7 pts | +12.7 pts | -15.4 pts |
| 2019 | Penkhull and Stoke | Labour | +14.3 pts | -0.9 pts | +15.2 pts |
| 2019 | Meir Hay | Labour | -15.6 pts | -0.9 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2019 | Goldenhill & Sandyford | Conservative | +26.5 pts | +12.7 pts | +13.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hartshill and Basford | Conservative | -1.0 pts | +12.7 pts | -13.6 pts |
| 2019 | Broadway and Longton East | Labour | +12.5 pts | -0.9 pts | +13.4 pts |
| 2019 | Meir North | Labour | -13.7 pts | -0.9 pts | -12.8 pts |
| 2019 | Bradeley & Chell Heath | Labour | +11.8 pts | -0.9 pts | +12.6 pts |
| 2019 | Blurton West and Newstead | Labour | -13.3 pts | -0.9 pts | -12.4 pts |
| 2019 | Boothen and Oak Hill | Independent | -10.5 pts | +1.2 pts | -11.6 pts |
| 2019 | Fenton West & Mount Pleasant | Independent | +12.8 pts | +1.2 pts | +11.6 pts |
| 2019 | Springfields and Trent Vale | Labour | +10.1 pts | -0.9 pts | +11.0 pts |
| 2019 | Moorcroft | Conservative | +23.3 pts | +12.7 pts | +10.6 pts |
| 2019 | Broadway and Longton East | Conservative | +22.9 pts | +12.7 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2019 | Ford Green & Smallthorne | Labour | +8.4 pts | -0.9 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Little Chell & Stanfield | Labour | +8.2 pts | -0.9 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2019 | Meir Park | Labour | -9.1 pts | -0.9 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Little Chell & Stanfield | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.7 pts | -13.8 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2019 | Bentilee and Ubberley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -21.3 pts | -13.8 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Weston Coyney | Green | -7.5 pts | -0.7 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2019 | Fenton East | Independent | +7.6 pts | +1.2 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Moorcroft | Labour | +5.5 pts | -0.9 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Meir South | Labour | -7.2 pts | -0.9 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hanley Park and Shelton | Labour | +5.3 pts | -0.9 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2019 | Great Chell & Packmoor | Labour | -6.5 pts | -0.9 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Blurton East | Conservative | +18.0 pts | +12.7 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Sandford Hill | Conservative | +17.9 pts | +12.7 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Eaton Park | Labour | -6.0 pts | -0.9 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Meir South | Conservative | +17.6 pts | +12.7 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Blurton East | Labour | -5.5 pts | -0.9 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Tunstall | Labour | +3.7 pts | -0.9 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Burslem Central | Labour | +3.6 pts | -0.9 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Boothen and Oak Hill | Green | +3.5 pts | -0.7 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Dresden & Florence | Conservative | +8.7 pts | +12.7 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Bentilee and Ubberley | Labour | +2.9 pts | -0.9 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Meir Park | Conservative | +9.1 pts | +12.7 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Fenton East | Labour | +2.6 pts | -0.9 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Abbey Hulton and Townsend | Labour | -4.3 pts | -0.9 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Springfields and Trent Vale | Green | +2.2 pts | -0.7 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hanford and Trentham | Labour | -3.7 pts | -0.9 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Baddeley Milton & Norton | Conservative | +10.0 pts | +12.7 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Birches Head and Central Forest Park | Conservative | +10.1 pts | +12.7 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Meir North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.3 pts | -13.8 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Sandford Hill | Labour | +1.6 pts | -0.9 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Baddeley Milton & Norton | Independent | +3.7 pts | +1.2 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Baddeley Milton & Norton | Labour | +1.4 pts | -0.9 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hollybush and Longton West | Labour | -3.1 pts | -0.9 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Blurton West and Newstead | Conservative | +10.6 pts | +12.7 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Lightwood North & Normacot | Labour | +1.1 pts | -0.9 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Etruria & Hanley | Labour | +0.6 pts | -0.9 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Birches Head and Central Forest Park | Labour | -2.1 pts | -0.9 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Lightwood North & Normacot | Conservative | +13.7 pts | +12.7 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Penkhull and Stoke | Green | -1.4 pts | -0.7 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Fenton West & Mount Pleasant | Labour | -1.3 pts | -0.9 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Weston Coyney | Labour | -1.2 pts | -0.9 pts | -0.3 pts |