Suffolk: wards that bucked the trend
Suffolk: in 2021, 108 ward results beat the expected swing and 90 trailed it. The biggest gap was Green in Peninsula (+39.1 pts actual vs +6.9 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Peninsula | Green | +39.1 pts | +6.9 pts | +32.2 pts |
| 2021 | Halesworth | Green | +38.7 pts | +6.9 pts | +31.8 pts |
| 2021 | Thedwastre North | Conservative | -28.2 pts | +2.4 pts | -30.6 pts |
| 2021 | Sudbury | Green | +36.6 pts | +6.9 pts | +29.7 pts |
| 2021 | Tower | Independent | -29.6 pts | -0.0 pts | -29.6 pts |
| 2021 | Mildenhall | Conservative | -25.4 pts | +2.4 pts | -27.9 pts |
| 2021 | Bungay | Green | +32.5 pts | +6.9 pts | +25.6 pts |
| 2021 | Hadleigh | Liberal Democrats | -27.6 pts | -3.5 pts | -24.0 pts |
| 2021 | Wickham | Green | +30.2 pts | +6.9 pts | +23.4 pts |
| 2021 | Mildenhall | Independent | +20.9 pts | -0.0 pts | +21.0 pts |
| 2021 | Felixstowe North and Trimley | Labour | +16.4 pts | -2.0 pts | +18.4 pts |
| 2021 | Rushmere | Labour | -20.4 pts | -2.0 pts | -18.3 pts |
| 2021 | Tower | Conservative | +19.0 pts | +2.4 pts | +16.5 pts |
| 2021 | Woodbridge | Liberal Democrats | +12.1 pts | -3.5 pts | +15.6 pts |
| 2021 | Row Heath | Independent | -15.5 pts | -0.0 pts | -15.5 pts |
| 2021 | Halesworth | Conservative | -12.9 pts | +2.4 pts | -15.4 pts |
| 2021 | Priory Heath | Labour | +13.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +15.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bungay | Labour | -17.2 pts | -2.0 pts | -15.2 pts |
| 2021 | Blything | Liberal Democrats | +11.4 pts | -3.5 pts | +15.0 pts |
| 2021 | Aldeburgh and Leiston | Conservative | +17.2 pts | +2.4 pts | +14.8 pts |
| 2021 | Pakefield | Conservative | +16.8 pts | +2.4 pts | +14.3 pts |
| 2021 | Hoxne and Eye | Conservative | -11.8 pts | +2.4 pts | -14.3 pts |
| 2021 | Kessingland and Southwold | Liberal Democrats | +10.6 pts | -3.5 pts | +14.2 pts |
| 2021 | Sudbury East and Waldingfield | Conservative | -11.5 pts | +2.4 pts | -14.0 pts |
| 2021 | St Margaret's and Westgate | Conservative | -11.3 pts | +2.4 pts | -13.8 pts |
| 2021 | Kesgrave and Rushmere St Andrew | Conservative | +16.1 pts | +2.4 pts | +13.6 pts |
| 2021 | Sudbury | Labour | -15.6 pts | -2.0 pts | -13.5 pts |
| 2021 | Blackbourn | Conservative | -11.0 pts | +2.4 pts | -13.4 pts |
| 2021 | Sudbury | Independent | -13.1 pts | -0.0 pts | -13.0 pts |
| 2021 | Cosford | Conservative | -10.6 pts | +2.4 pts | -13.0 pts |
| 2021 | Gipping Valley | Conservative | +15.3 pts | +2.4 pts | +12.9 pts |
| 2021 | Aldeburgh and Leiston | Labour | +10.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2021 | Framlingham | Labour | +10.1 pts | -2.0 pts | +12.1 pts |
| 2021 | Thedwastre North | Green | +19.0 pts | +6.9 pts | +12.1 pts |
| 2021 | Upper Gipping | Green | -5.0 pts | +6.9 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2021 | St Helen's | Labour | +9.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +11.6 pts |
| 2021 | Clare | Labour | +9.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2021 | Bungay | Conservative | -9.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2021 | Lowestoft South | Conservative | +13.6 pts | +2.4 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2021 | Samford | Conservative | +13.5 pts | +2.4 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2021 | Stowmarket South | Liberal Democrats | +7.5 pts | -3.5 pts | +11.0 pts |
| 2021 | Halesworth | Labour | -13.0 pts | -2.0 pts | -11.0 pts |
| 2021 | Martlesham | Liberal Democrats | +7.3 pts | -3.5 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2021 | Framlingham | Liberal Democrats | +7.1 pts | -3.5 pts | +10.7 pts |
| 2021 | Stowmarket North and Stowupland | Conservative | -8.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -10.5 pts |
| 2021 | Whitehouse and Whitton | Conservative | +11.9 pts | +2.4 pts | +9.4 pts |
| 2021 | Thredling | Conservative | -6.7 pts | +2.4 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2021 | Stowmarket North and Stowupland | Green | +15.9 pts | +6.9 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2021 | Priory Heath | Conservative | -6.4 pts | +2.4 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2021 | Pakefield | Labour | -10.9 pts | -2.0 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2021 | Tower | Green | +15.6 pts | +6.9 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2021 | Gipping Valley | Labour | +6.4 pts | -2.0 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2021 | Carlford | Green | +15.2 pts | +6.9 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2021 | Martlesham | Labour | +6.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2021 | Rushmere | Conservative | -5.9 pts | +2.4 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2021 | Brandon | Conservative | +10.7 pts | +2.4 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2021 | Hoxne and Eye | Liberal Democrats | +4.6 pts | -3.5 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2021 | St John's | Labour | -9.9 pts | -2.0 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2021 | Whitehouse and Whitton | Green | -1.0 pts | +6.9 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2021 | St Margaret's and Westgate | Liberal Democrats | +4.3 pts | -3.5 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2021 | Martlesham | Conservative | -5.3 pts | +2.4 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2021 | Carlford | Labour | +5.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2021 | Belstead Brook | Conservative | +9.9 pts | +2.4 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2021 | Stowmarket South | Conservative | -4.9 pts | +2.4 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2021 | Hadleigh | Green | +14.2 pts | +6.9 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2021 | Hartismere | Labour | -9.3 pts | -2.0 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2021 | St Helen's | Conservative | -4.8 pts | +2.4 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bosmere | Labour | +5.1 pts | -2.0 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Great Cornard | Liberal Democrats | +3.5 pts | -3.5 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2021 | Wickham | Liberal Democrats | -10.5 pts | -3.5 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2021 | Haverhill East and Kedington | Conservative | +9.4 pts | +2.4 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2021 | Upper Gipping | Conservative | +9.4 pts | +2.4 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2021 | Gipping Valley | Liberal Democrats | -10.5 pts | -3.5 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2021 | Cosford | Green | +13.8 pts | +6.9 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2021 | Bridge | Conservative | +9.3 pts | +2.4 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2021 | Lowestoft South | Liberal Democrats | +3.2 pts | -3.5 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2021 | Haverhill Cangle | Liberal Democrats | -10.2 pts | -3.5 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2021 | Beccles | Conservative | -4.2 pts | +2.4 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2021 | Blything | Conservative | -4.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2021 | Peninsula | Independent | -6.4 pts | -0.0 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2021 | Felixstowe Coastal | Liberal Democrats | +2.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Thredling | Liberal Democrats | -9.6 pts | -3.5 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Newmarket and Red Lodge | Conservative | -3.5 pts | +2.4 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Clare | Conservative | -3.5 pts | +2.4 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2021 | Felixstowe Coastal | Green | +0.9 pts | +6.9 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2021 | Felixstowe North and Trimley | Conservative | +8.2 pts | +2.4 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2021 | Beccles | Green | +12.6 pts | +6.9 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2021 | Row Heath | Conservative | +8.1 pts | +2.4 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2021 | Newmarket and Red Lodge | Labour | +3.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2021 | Carlford | Conservative | +7.7 pts | +2.4 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2021 | Thingoe South | Conservative | -2.8 pts | +2.4 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2021 | Kessingland and Southwold | Labour | +3.1 pts | -2.0 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2021 | St John's | Conservative | +7.5 pts | +2.4 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2021 | Brandon | Labour | +3.0 pts | -2.0 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2021 | Stour Valley | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | -3.5 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2021 | Wilford | Conservative | -2.5 pts | +2.4 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2021 | Wilford | Labour | +2.9 pts | -2.0 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2021 | Peninsula | Conservative | +7.3 pts | +2.4 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2021 | Rushmere | Green | +2.1 pts | +6.9 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2021 | St John's | Green | +2.1 pts | +6.9 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2021 | Blything | Labour | +2.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bridge | Labour | -6.7 pts | -2.0 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2021 | Hadleigh | Conservative | -2.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Priory Heath | Green | +2.4 pts | +6.9 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2021 | St Helen's | Green | +2.4 pts | +6.9 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Row Heath | Labour | +2.4 pts | -2.0 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2021 | Samford | Labour | +2.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2021 | Chantry | Conservative | +6.7 pts | +2.4 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2021 | Oulton | Conservative | +6.7 pts | +2.4 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2021 | Thedwastre South | Labour | +2.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2021 | St Margaret's and Westgate | Labour | +2.1 pts | -2.0 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2021 | Gunton | Conservative | +6.6 pts | +2.4 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2021 | Stowmarket South | Labour | +2.1 pts | -2.0 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2021 | Kesgrave and Rushmere St Andrew | Liberal Democrats | -7.5 pts | -3.5 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2021 | Haverhill Cangle | Conservative | +6.4 pts | +2.4 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2021 | Kesgrave and Rushmere St Andrew | Green | +2.9 pts | +6.9 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Thedwastre South | Conservative | -1.5 pts | +2.4 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Stour Valley | Green | +3.0 pts | +6.9 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2021 | St John's | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | -3.5 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2021 | Pakefield | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | -3.5 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2021 | Thingoe South | Liberal Democrats | -7.2 pts | -3.5 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Wilford | Liberal Democrats | +0.1 pts | -3.5 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Eastgate and Moreton Hall | Labour | +1.6 pts | -2.0 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Eastgate and Moreton Hall | Conservative | -1.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Chantry | Liberal Democrats | +0.0 pts | -3.5 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Bridge | Liberal Democrats | -0.0 pts | -3.5 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Eastgate and Moreton Hall | Liberal Democrats | -7.0 pts | -3.5 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Bixley | Conservative | +5.9 pts | +2.4 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Haverhill Cangle | Labour | -5.5 pts | -2.0 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2021 | St Margaret's and Westgate | Green | +3.4 pts | +6.9 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2021 | Thingoe North | Conservative | +5.7 pts | +2.4 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Kesgrave and Rushmere St Andrew | Labour | +1.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Stour Valley | Conservative | -0.8 pts | +2.4 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Eastgate and Moreton Hall | Independent | -3.1 pts | -0.0 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2021 | Chantry | Labour | -5.0 pts | -2.0 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Rushmere | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Thingoe North | Liberal Democrats | -6.5 pts | -3.5 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Hardwick | Green | +3.9 pts | +6.9 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Oulton | Green | +4.0 pts | +6.9 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Thedwastre South | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Thingoe South | Labour | +0.8 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Stour Valley | Labour | +0.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Gunton | Green | +4.1 pts | +6.9 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Bridge | Green | +4.1 pts | +6.9 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Hartismere | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2021 | Pakefield | Green | +4.2 pts | +6.9 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2021 | Lowestoft South | Labour | +0.6 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Newmarket and Red Lodge | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Melford | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +2.4 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Blackbourn | Labour | -4.6 pts | -2.0 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Halesworth | Liberal Democrats | -6.0 pts | -3.5 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Whitehouse and Whitton | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bungay | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bosmere | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Melford | Labour | +0.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Cosford | Labour | +0.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Felixstowe Coastal | Labour | +0.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bixley | Labour | +0.1 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Hardwick | Liberal Democrats | -5.6 pts | -3.5 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Priory Heath | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Mildenhall | Labour | -4.0 pts | -2.0 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Thedwastre North | Labour | -3.9 pts | -2.0 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Great Cornard | Conservative | +0.6 pts | +2.4 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Lowestoft South | Green | +5.2 pts | +6.9 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Great Cornard | Labour | -0.4 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Hartismere | Conservative | +4.1 pts | +2.4 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Upper Gipping | Labour | -0.4 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Melford | Green | +5.3 pts | +6.9 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Tower | Liberal Democrats | -5.1 pts | -3.5 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Sudbury | Conservative | +0.9 pts | +2.4 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Felixstowe Coastal | Conservative | +1.0 pts | +2.4 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Sudbury East and Waldingfield | Green | +5.5 pts | +6.9 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Wickham | Conservative | +1.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Sudbury | Liberal Democrats | -4.9 pts | -3.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Melford | Independent | -1.3 pts | -0.0 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Great Cornard | Green | +5.6 pts | +6.9 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Oulton | Liberal Democrats | -2.3 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Exning and Newmarket | Labour | -0.9 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Exning and Newmarket | Conservative | +3.6 pts | +2.4 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Tower | Labour | -1.0 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Peninsula | Labour | -1.0 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Stowmarket North and Stowupland | Labour | -1.0 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Bosmere | Conservative | +3.4 pts | +2.4 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Hardwick | Labour | -1.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Hartismere | Green | +6.1 pts | +6.9 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Bixley | Liberal Democrats | -2.9 pts | -3.5 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Haverhill East and Kedington | Labour | -1.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Woodbridge | Conservative | +1.9 pts | +2.4 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Framlingham | Conservative | +2.0 pts | +2.4 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Hardwick | Conservative | +2.9 pts | +2.4 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Wilford | Green | +6.5 pts | +6.9 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Gunton | Labour | -1.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Beccles | Labour | -1.8 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Oulton | Labour | -2.2 pts | -2.0 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Belstead Brook | Liberal Democrats | -3.7 pts | -3.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Kessingland and Southwold | Conservative | +2.3 pts | +2.4 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Thredling | Labour | -1.9 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2021 | St Helen's | Liberal Democrats | -3.5 pts | -3.5 pts | -0.0 pts |