Sutton: wards that bucked the trend
Sutton: in 2018, 37 ward results beat the expected swing and 36 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Beddington North (-20.1 pts actual vs -4.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Beddington North | Liberal Democrats | -20.1 pts | -4.2 pts | -15.9 pts |
| 2018 | Wallington North | Liberal Democrats | +7.1 pts | -4.2 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2018 | Carshalton South & Clockhouse | Liberal Democrats | +6.3 pts | -4.2 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2018 | Stonecot | Liberal Democrats | -14.2 pts | -4.2 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2018 | Beddington South | Liberal Democrats | +5.7 pts | -4.2 pts | +9.9 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton North | Liberal Democrats | -13.5 pts | -4.2 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton West | Liberal Democrats | -13.0 pts | -4.2 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton Central | Labour | +10.8 pts | +3.1 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2018 | Stonecot | Conservative | +14.0 pts | +6.5 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2018 | Cheam | Conservative | +14.0 pts | +6.5 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2018 | Wallington North | Conservative | -0.8 pts | +6.5 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2018 | Beddington North | Conservative | -0.6 pts | +6.5 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2018 | Wallington South | Liberal Democrats | +2.9 pts | -4.2 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton Central | Liberal Democrats | -10.7 pts | -4.2 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton West | Conservative | +12.8 pts | +6.5 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2018 | Beddington South | Labour | -2.4 pts | +3.1 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2018 | Nonsuch | Liberal Democrats | -9.2 pts | -4.2 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2018 | Worcester Park | Liberal Democrats | +0.6 pts | -4.2 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2018 | Carshalton Central | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | -4.2 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton North | Conservative | +10.9 pts | +6.5 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2018 | Carshalton South & Clockhouse | Green | -4.8 pts | -0.5 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Wandle Valley | Conservative | +2.3 pts | +6.5 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Beddington South | Conservative | +2.4 pts | +6.5 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton North | Labour | +7.1 pts | +3.1 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2018 | Wallington South | Conservative | +10.5 pts | +6.5 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton West | Labour | +7.0 pts | +3.1 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton South | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | -4.2 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Carshalton South & Clockhouse | Labour | -0.3 pts | +3.1 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2018 | Beddington North | Green | -3.6 pts | -0.5 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2018 | Cheam | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -4.2 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2018 | St Helier | Liberal Democrats | -7.3 pts | -4.2 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton South | Labour | +6.0 pts | +3.1 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Wallington North | Green | -3.3 pts | -0.5 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Beddington North | Labour | +0.3 pts | +3.1 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Wandle Valley | Green | +2.2 pts | -0.5 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2018 | The Wrythe | Green | +2.0 pts | -0.5 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2018 | The Wrythe | Liberal Democrats | -6.6 pts | -4.2 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2018 | St Helier | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.6 pts | -6.0 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2018 | Worcester Park | Conservative | +4.2 pts | +6.5 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Belmont | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | -4.2 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Stonecot | Green | +1.7 pts | -0.5 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Wandle Valley | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | -4.2 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Stonecot | Labour | +5.3 pts | +3.1 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Carshalton Central | Labour | +1.1 pts | +3.1 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Nonsuch | Conservative | +4.6 pts | +6.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2018 | The Wrythe | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.1 pts | -6.0 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton South | Conservative | +4.7 pts | +6.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Wallington South | Green | -2.3 pts | -0.5 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Nonsuch | Labour | +1.4 pts | +3.1 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | The Wrythe | Labour | +1.4 pts | +3.1 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.3 pts | -6.0 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Cheam | Labour | +1.5 pts | +3.1 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Nonsuch | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.4 pts | -6.0 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Wandle Valley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.5 pts | -6.0 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.5 pts | -6.0 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Carshalton South & Clockhouse | Conservative | +5.0 pts | +6.5 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Wallington South | Labour | +1.8 pts | +3.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Worcester Park | Labour | +4.5 pts | +3.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Wandle Valley | Labour | +2.1 pts | +3.1 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton Central | Green | -1.4 pts | -0.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Beddington North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.9 pts | -6.0 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | The Wrythe | Conservative | +7.3 pts | +6.5 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2018 | St Helier | Conservative | +7.0 pts | +6.5 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Wallington North | Labour | +2.7 pts | +3.1 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Wallington North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.6 pts | -6.0 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Belmont | Labour | +2.8 pts | +3.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Beddington South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.7 pts | -6.0 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Carshalton Central | CPA | -0.2 pts | -0.0 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Sutton Central | Conservative | +6.7 pts | +6.5 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2018 | St Helier | Labour | +3.3 pts | +3.1 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Carshalton Central | Green | -0.6 pts | -0.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Carshalton Central | Conservative | +6.6 pts | +6.5 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Belmont | Conservative | +6.5 pts | +6.5 pts | -0.0 pts |
| 2018 | Stonecot | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.0 pts | -6.0 pts | 0.0 pts |