Tamworth: wards that bucked the trend
Tamworth: in 2024, 15 ward results beat the expected swing and 10 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Bolehall (+12.5 pts actual vs -2.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Bolehall | Labour | +12.5 pts | -2.2 pts | +14.7 pts |
| 2024 | Wilnecote | Labour | +12.4 pts | -2.2 pts | +14.6 pts |
| 2024 | Glascote | Independent | -24.6 pts | -11.7 pts | -12.8 pts |
| 2024 | Spital | Conservative | +7.0 pts | -2.6 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2024 | TRINITY | Liberal Democrats | -8.7 pts | -0.3 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2024 | Stonydelph | Labour | +6.1 pts | -2.2 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2024 | Belgrave | Labour | +15.1 pts | +6.9 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2024 | Mercian | Conservative | -10.3 pts | -2.6 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2024 | Amington | Labour | +3.5 pts | -2.2 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2024 | Stonydelph | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +6.2 pts | +1.5 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2024 | Castle | Conservative | -7.0 pts | -2.6 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2024 | Bolehall | Conservative | +0.8 pts | -2.6 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2024 | TRINITY | Conservative | -5.5 pts | -2.6 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2024 | Wilnecote | Conservative | -0.4 pts | -2.6 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2024 | Belgrave | Green | +2.1 pts | +0.4 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2024 | Stonydelph | Conservative | -4.1 pts | -2.6 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2024 | Spital | Independent | -10.4 pts | -11.7 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2024 | Glascote | Labour | +7.8 pts | +6.9 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2024 | Amington | Conservative | -3.5 pts | -2.6 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2024 | Stonydelph | Green | -0.4 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2024 | Castle | Green | +1.0 pts | +0.4 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2024 | TRINITY | Labour | -2.7 pts | -2.2 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2024 | Castle | Reform UK | +7.0 pts | +6.5 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Belgrave | Conservative | -2.8 pts | -2.6 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2024 | Glascote | Conservative | -2.5 pts | -2.6 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2023 | Mercian | Labour | +36.7 pts | -5.9 pts | +42.6 pts |
| 2023 | Mercian | Conservative | +16.4 pts | -9.4 pts | +25.8 pts |
| 2023 | Spital | Labour | +12.3 pts | -5.9 pts | +18.2 pts |
| 2023 | Glascote | Conservative | -25.6 pts | -9.4 pts | -16.2 pts |
| 2023 | Spital | Independent | -10.8 pts | +1.8 pts | -12.6 pts |
| 2023 | Amington | Labour | +5.1 pts | -5.9 pts | +11.0 pts |
| 2023 | Belgrave | Independent | +12.3 pts | +1.8 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2023 | Wilnecote | Conservative | -18.5 pts | -9.4 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2023 | TRINITY | Labour | +2.7 pts | -5.9 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2023 | Bolehall | Labour | +2.5 pts | -5.9 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2023 | Spital | Conservative | -1.5 pts | -9.4 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2023 | Stonydelph | Labour | +1.6 pts | -5.9 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2023 | Castle | Conservative | -16.7 pts | -9.4 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2023 | TRINITY | Conservative | -16.4 pts | -9.4 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2023 | Stonydelph | Green | -6.8 pts | -0.2 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2023 | Bolehall | Conservative | -15.8 pts | -9.4 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2023 | Amington | Conservative | -5.1 pts | -9.4 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2023 | Belgrave | Conservative | -13.3 pts | -9.4 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2023 | Belgrave | Green | -2.5 pts | -0.2 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2023 | Wilnecote | Labour | -6.7 pts | -5.9 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2023 | Stonydelph | Conservative | -8.8 pts | -9.4 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Glascote | Labour | +25.9 pts | +9.6 pts | +16.2 pts |
| 2022 | Spital | Independent | +25.6 pts | +11.6 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2022 | Bolehall | Labour | +21.4 pts | +9.6 pts | +11.8 pts |
| 2022 | Spital | Conservative | -22.6 pts | -11.1 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2022 | Glascote | Conservative | +0.2 pts | -11.1 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2022 | Spital | Labour | -1.0 pts | +9.6 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2022 | Mercian | Labour | -0.6 pts | +9.6 pts | -10.2 pts |
| 2022 | Stonydelph | Green | +7.6 pts | -0.4 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2022 | Castle | Labour | +17.5 pts | +9.6 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2022 | Belgrave | Conservative | -18.5 pts | -11.1 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2022 | Belgrave | Labour | +2.6 pts | +9.6 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2022 | Castle | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -11.1 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2022 | Amington | Conservative | -4.5 pts | -11.1 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2022 | Wilnecote | Labour | +15.6 pts | +9.6 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2022 | Wilnecote | Conservative | -5.3 pts | -11.1 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2022 | Bolehall | Conservative | -16.2 pts | -11.1 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2022 | TRINITY | Conservative | -6.5 pts | -11.1 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2022 | Amington | Labour | +14.3 pts | +9.6 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2022 | Stonydelph | Conservative | -7.3 pts | -11.1 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2022 | TRINITY | Labour | +10.6 pts | +9.6 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Stonydelph | Labour | +8.8 pts | +9.6 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Mercian | Conservative | -11.4 pts | -11.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Mercian | Conservative | -3.4 pts | +15.8 pts | -19.3 pts |
| 2021 | Glascote | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -30.0 pts | -17.0 pts | -13.0 pts |
| 2021 | Mercian | Labour | -14.9 pts | -1.9 pts | -13.0 pts |
| 2021 | Bolehall | Conservative | +27.8 pts | +15.8 pts | +11.9 pts |
| 2021 | TRINITY | Labour | +8.9 pts | -1.9 pts | +10.7 pts |
| 2021 | Spital | Conservative | +6.3 pts | +15.8 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2021 | Belgrave | Labour | +6.2 pts | -1.9 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2021 | Glascote | Labour | -9.3 pts | -1.9 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2021 | Amington | Labour | +5.5 pts | -1.9 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bolehall | Labour | -8.5 pts | -1.9 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2021 | Wilnecote | Conservative | +22.3 pts | +15.8 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2021 | Castle | Labour | +4.3 pts | -1.9 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2021 | Wilnecote | Labour | -7.9 pts | -1.9 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Belgrave | Conservative | +21.6 pts | +15.8 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2021 | Spital | Labour | -7.4 pts | -1.9 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2021 | Amington | Conservative | +11.2 pts | +15.8 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Wilnecote | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.5 pts | -17.0 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | TRINITY | Conservative | +20.3 pts | +15.8 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Belgrave | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.7 pts | -17.0 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2021 | Glascote | Conservative | +19.5 pts | +15.8 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Mercian | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -20.6 pts | -17.0 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Bolehall | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -19.2 pts | -17.0 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Castle | Conservative | +13.7 pts | +15.8 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Stonydelph | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -18.9 pts | -17.0 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Amington | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.6 pts | -17.0 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Stonydelph | Labour | -0.7 pts | -1.9 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Stonydelph | Conservative | +14.8 pts | +15.8 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Castle | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.3 pts | -17.0 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Spital | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.4 pts | -17.0 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2021 | TRINITY | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.4 pts | -17.0 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Amington | Green | -1.2 pts | -1.3 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2019 | Stonydelph | Conservative | +9.8 pts | -6.6 pts | +16.4 pts |
| 2019 | Wilnecote | Conservative | -20.6 pts | -6.6 pts | -14.1 pts |
| 2019 | Glascote | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +25.5 pts | +15.1 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2019 | Wilnecote | Labour | +4.4 pts | -5.2 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2019 | Amington | Labour | -14.6 pts | -5.2 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2019 | Belgrave | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +6.1 pts | +15.1 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2019 | Spital | Conservative | +1.9 pts | -6.6 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2019 | Bolehall | Labour | -13.4 pts | -5.2 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Spital | Labour | +1.3 pts | -5.2 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2019 | Glascote | Conservative | -12.4 pts | -6.6 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2019 | TRINITY | Labour | -11.0 pts | -5.2 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Stonydelph | Labour | +0.6 pts | -5.2 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Mercian | Labour | +0.2 pts | -5.2 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2019 | Amington | Conservative | -1.5 pts | -6.6 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Mercian | Conservative | -11.2 pts | -6.6 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Labour | -9.3 pts | -5.2 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Bolehall | Conservative | -2.7 pts | -6.6 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Glascote | Labour | -8.3 pts | -5.2 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Amington | Green | +2.8 pts | -0.1 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Belgrave | Conservative | -9.3 pts | -6.6 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2019 | TRINITY | Conservative | -9.0 pts | -6.6 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2019 | TRINITY | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +12.6 pts | +15.1 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Belgrave | Labour | -7.1 pts | -5.2 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Amington | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +13.2 pts | +15.1 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Belgrave | Green | +1.5 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | TRINITY | Green | +1.5 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +13.6 pts | +15.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Bolehall | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +16.1 pts | +15.1 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Conservative | -5.5 pts | -6.6 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Mercian | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +15.9 pts | +15.1 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Liberal Democrats | +1.2 pts | +0.7 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Stonydelph | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +15.4 pts | +15.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Wilnecote | Green | +0.2 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Spital | Conservative | -8.6 pts | +8.6 pts | -17.1 pts |
| 2018 | Spital | Labour | -13.1 pts | +1.6 pts | -14.6 pts |
| 2018 | Glascote | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -26.6 pts | -15.4 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2018 | Glascote | Labour | +11.9 pts | +1.6 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2018 | Stonydelph | Conservative | -0.6 pts | +8.6 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2018 | Castle | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.7 pts | -15.4 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2018 | Wilnecote | Conservative | +15.8 pts | +8.6 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2018 | Stonydelph | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -22.4 pts | -15.4 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2018 | Bolehall | Labour | +8.5 pts | +1.6 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2018 | Glascote | Conservative | +15.1 pts | +8.6 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2018 | Wilnecote | Labour | -4.5 pts | +1.6 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2018 | Amington | Labour | +6.9 pts | +1.6 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2018 | Castle | Conservative | +13.7 pts | +8.6 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2018 | Castle | Labour | +6.7 pts | +1.6 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2018 | TRINITY | Conservative | +13.3 pts | +8.6 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2018 | Amington | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -20.1 pts | -15.4 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2018 | Stonydelph | Labour | -2.8 pts | +1.6 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Belgrave | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.4 pts | -15.4 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2018 | Mercian | Conservative | +5.3 pts | +8.6 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2018 | Mercian | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.2 pts | -15.4 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2018 | TRINITY | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -18.5 pts | -15.4 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2018 | Belgrave | Conservative | +11.5 pts | +8.6 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Bolehall | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -17.8 pts | -15.4 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2018 | TRINITY | Labour | +3.8 pts | +1.6 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Belgrave | Labour | -0.3 pts | +1.6 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2018 | TRINITY | Green | +1.4 pts | +2.8 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Amington | Conservative | +9.5 pts | +8.6 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Bolehall | Conservative | +9.3 pts | +8.6 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2018 | Mercian | Labour | +2.0 pts | +1.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2016 | Spital | Conservative | +8.7 pts | -3.4 pts | +12.1 pts |
| 2016 | Spital | Labour | +13.9 pts | +4.5 pts | +9.4 pts |
| 2016 | Wilnecote | Labour | +13.0 pts | +4.5 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2016 | Glascote | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +7.1 pts | -1.2 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2016 | Mercian | Conservative | +4.7 pts | -3.4 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2016 | Bolehall | Conservative | -11.0 pts | -3.4 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2016 | Castle | Conservative | -10.8 pts | -3.4 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2016 | Castle | Labour | -2.2 pts | +4.5 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2016 | Glascote | Labour | -2.0 pts | +4.5 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2016 | Bolehall | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +5.3 pts | -1.2 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2016 | Bolehall | Labour | +10.7 pts | +4.5 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2016 | TRINITY | Labour | -1.2 pts | +4.5 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2016 | Stonydelph | Conservative | -8.2 pts | -3.4 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2016 | Belgrave | Labour | +0.6 pts | +4.5 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2016 | Amington | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +2.4 pts | -1.2 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2016 | Castle | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.6 pts | -1.2 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2016 | Amington | Conservative | -0.1 pts | -3.4 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2016 | TRINITY | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.5 pts | -1.2 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2016 | Stonydelph | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.3 pts | -1.2 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2016 | Mercian | Labour | +2.1 pts | +4.5 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2016 | Stonydelph | Labour | +6.8 pts | +4.5 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2016 | Wilnecote | Conservative | -5.6 pts | -3.4 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2016 | Glascote | Conservative | -5.3 pts | -3.4 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2016 | Belgrave | Conservative | -5.0 pts | -3.4 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2016 | Wilnecote | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.6 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2016 | Amington | Labour | +3.2 pts | +4.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2016 | Belgrave | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.0 pts | -1.2 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2016 | TRINITY | Conservative | -4.2 pts | -3.4 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2016 | Mercian | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2015 | Bolehall | Labour | -27.0 pts | -8.1 pts | -19.0 pts |
| 2015 | Glascote | Labour | -23.9 pts | -8.1 pts | -15.8 pts |
| 2015 | Spital | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.8 pts | +6.8 pts | -15.6 pts |
| 2015 | TRINITY | Conservative | -14.1 pts | -0.2 pts | -13.9 pts |
| 2015 | Spital | Labour | +5.1 pts | -8.1 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2015 | Castle | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.6 pts | +6.8 pts | -12.4 pts |
| 2015 | Glascote | Conservative | -11.5 pts | -0.2 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2015 | Mercian | Conservative | -11.1 pts | -0.2 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2015 | Belgrave | Labour | +2.2 pts | -8.1 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2015 | Belgrave | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.1 pts | +6.8 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2015 | Stonydelph | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.0 pts | +6.8 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2015 | Wilnecote | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.3 pts | +6.8 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2015 | Castle | Labour | +0.0 pts | -8.1 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2015 | Stonydelph | Conservative | +6.9 pts | -0.2 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2015 | Mercian | Labour | -14.9 pts | -8.1 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2015 | Wilnecote | Conservative | +6.3 pts | -0.2 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2015 | Amington | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.5 pts | +6.8 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2015 | Castle | Conservative | +5.8 pts | -0.2 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2015 | Belgrave | Conservative | +5.1 pts | -0.2 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2015 | Wilnecote | Labour | -3.8 pts | -8.1 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2015 | Stonydelph | Labour | -4.0 pts | -8.1 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2015 | Amington | Conservative | +3.5 pts | -0.2 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2015 | Spital | Conservative | +3.0 pts | -0.2 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2015 | TRINITY | Labour | -10.9 pts | -8.1 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2015 | Castle | Green | -0.2 pts | +1.6 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2015 | Wilnecote | Green | -0.2 pts | +1.6 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2015 | Bolehall | Conservative | +1.3 pts | -0.2 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2015 | Amington | Labour | -9.5 pts | -8.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2015 | Spital | Liberal Democrats | +0.7 pts | +0.0 pts | +0.7 pts |