Thanet: wards that bucked the trend
Thanet: in 2019, 33 ward results beat the expected swing and 29 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Birchington South (+33.4 pts actual vs +6.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Birchington South | Conservative | +33.4 pts | +6.5 pts | +27.0 pts |
| 2019 | Cliftonville East | Conservative | +28.1 pts | +6.5 pts | +21.7 pts |
| 2019 | Salmestone | Conservative | -13.7 pts | +6.5 pts | -20.1 pts |
| 2019 | Nethercourt | Labour | +23.8 pts | +7.1 pts | +16.7 pts |
| 2019 | Margate Central | Labour | +22.9 pts | +7.1 pts | +15.8 pts |
| 2019 | Eastcliff | Labour | +20.9 pts | +7.1 pts | +13.8 pts |
| 2019 | Newington | Labour | +20.6 pts | +7.1 pts | +13.5 pts |
| 2019 | Birchington North | Conservative | +19.9 pts | +6.5 pts | +13.5 pts |
| 2019 | Viking | Independent | +13.0 pts | -0.2 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2019 | Northwood | Conservative | -5.4 pts | +6.5 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2019 | Cliftonville West | Labour | +19.0 pts | +7.1 pts | +11.8 pts |
| 2019 | Central Harbour | Labour | +18.4 pts | +7.1 pts | +11.2 pts |
| 2019 | Margate Central | Conservative | -4.8 pts | +6.5 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2019 | Cliftonville West | Conservative | -4.4 pts | +6.5 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2019 | Salmestone | Liberal Democrats | +15.3 pts | +4.5 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2019 | Thanet Villages | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -24.4 pts | -35.1 pts | +10.7 pts |
| 2019 | Viking | Labour | -3.4 pts | +7.1 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2019 | St. Peters | Labour | -2.7 pts | +7.1 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2019 | Nethercourt | Conservative | -3.0 pts | +6.5 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2019 | Garlinge | Labour | -2.0 pts | +7.1 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2019 | Sir Moses Montefiore | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -26.3 pts | -35.1 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2019 | Birchington South | Labour | -1.6 pts | +7.1 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2019 | Central Harbour | Conservative | -1.9 pts | +6.5 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Margate Central | Independent | +7.9 pts | -0.2 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2019 | Birchington North | Labour | -1.0 pts | +7.1 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2019 | Kingsgate | Conservative | +14.3 pts | +6.5 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2019 | Thanet Villages | Labour | -0.7 pts | +7.1 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2019 | Margate Central | Green | -0.4 pts | +6.9 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Thanet Villages | Conservative | +13.5 pts | +6.5 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2019 | Bradstowe | Labour | +0.2 pts | +7.1 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2019 | Westgate-On-Sea | Labour | +0.4 pts | +7.1 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2019 | Dane Valley | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +6.5 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Cliffsend & Pegwell | Labour | +1.4 pts | +7.1 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2019 | St. Peters | Conservative | +12.1 pts | +6.5 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Viking | Conservative | +0.8 pts | +6.5 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Eastcliff | Conservative | +1.1 pts | +6.5 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Beacon Road | Conservative | +1.2 pts | +6.5 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Central Harbour | Independent | -4.9 pts | -0.2 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2019 | Westbrook | Labour | +2.6 pts | +7.1 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Garlinge | Conservative | +2.1 pts | +6.5 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Westgate-On-Sea | Conservative | +10.7 pts | +6.5 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Eastcliff | Green | +11.1 pts | +6.9 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Nethercourt | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -31.0 pts | -35.1 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Northwood | Labour | +10.6 pts | +7.1 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Beacon Road | Labour | +4.3 pts | +7.1 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Sir Moses Montefiore | Conservative | +3.6 pts | +6.5 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Bradstowe | Conservative | +8.8 pts | +6.5 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Birchington South | Independent | +1.7 pts | -0.2 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Westbrook | Conservative | +8.2 pts | +6.5 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Newington | Conservative | +8.0 pts | +6.5 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Cliffsend & Pegwell | Green | +8.4 pts | +6.9 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Dane Valley | Liberal Democrats | +3.1 pts | +4.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Dane Valley | Labour | +8.3 pts | +7.1 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Cliftonville West | Green | +5.8 pts | +6.9 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Cliftonville East | Labour | +8.2 pts | +7.1 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Cliffsend & Pegwell | Conservative | +7.5 pts | +6.5 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Sir Moses Montefiore | Labour | +7.9 pts | +7.1 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Thanet Villages | Green | +7.5 pts | +6.9 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Birchington South | Liberal Democrats | +5.2 pts | +4.5 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Central Harbour | Green | +6.3 pts | +6.9 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Westgate-On-Sea | Liberal Democrats | +4.4 pts | +4.5 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Salmestone | Labour | +7.3 pts | +7.1 pts | +0.2 pts |