Tower Hamlets: wards that bucked the trend
Tower Hamlets: in 2018, 30 ward results beat the expected swing and 44 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in St Katharine's and Wapping (+22.3 pts actual vs +5.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | St Katharine's and Wapping | Liberal Democrats | +22.3 pts | +5.4 pts | +16.9 pts |
| 2018 | Island Gardens | Liberal Democrats | +17.7 pts | +5.4 pts | +12.3 pts |
| 2018 | Stepney Green | Labour | +18.9 pts | +7.2 pts | +11.7 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley North | Labour | -4.4 pts | +7.2 pts | -11.6 pts |
| 2018 | Canary Wharf | Labour | -3.2 pts | +7.2 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2018 | Weavers | Labour | +16.6 pts | +7.2 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2018 | Lansbury | Labour | -1.9 pts | +7.2 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2018 | Island Gardens | Labour | -1.6 pts | +7.2 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2018 | Island Gardens | Conservative | -10.5 pts | -2.1 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2018 | Spitalfields and Banglatown | Labour | +15.6 pts | +7.2 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2018 | St Katharine's and Wapping | Conservative | -9.6 pts | -2.1 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2018 | Poplar | Labour | -0.2 pts | +7.2 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2018 | Weavers | Green | -5.2 pts | +2.0 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2018 | Limehouse | Labour | +0.4 pts | +7.2 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2018 | Blackwall and Cubitt Town | Liberal Democrats | +11.9 pts | +5.4 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2018 | Limehouse | Conservative | -8.6 pts | -2.1 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2018 | Blackwall and Cubitt Town | Labour | +1.6 pts | +7.2 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2018 | St Peter's | Labour | +12.0 pts | +7.2 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2018 | St Peter's | Liberal Democrats | +0.8 pts | +5.4 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2018 | Bethnal Green | Labour | +11.4 pts | +7.2 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2018 | St Katharine's and Wapping | Labour | +3.1 pts | +7.2 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley South | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | +5.4 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2018 | Blackwall and Cubitt Town | Conservative | -5.8 pts | -2.1 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2018 | Shadwell | Labour | +3.6 pts | +7.2 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Whitechapel | Labour | +10.8 pts | +7.2 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2018 | St Dunstan's | Labour | +10.7 pts | +7.2 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2018 | St Katharine's and Wapping | Green | -1.4 pts | +2.0 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2018 | St Dunstan's | Liberal Democrats | +2.2 pts | +5.4 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2018 | St Peter's | Green | -1.1 pts | +2.0 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2018 | Shadwell | Liberal Democrats | +2.4 pts | +5.4 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2018 | Stepney Green | Conservative | +0.9 pts | -2.1 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2018 | Bethnal Green | Conservative | +0.9 pts | -2.1 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Stepney Green | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | +5.4 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley North | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | +5.4 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Bow West | Green | -0.8 pts | +2.0 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Blackwall and Cubitt Town | Green | +4.7 pts | +2.0 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2018 | Bow East | Labour | +9.8 pts | +7.2 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2018 | Lansbury | Conservative | +0.5 pts | -2.1 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2018 | Poplar | Liberal Democrats | +2.8 pts | +5.4 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Bethnal Green | Liberal Democrats | +2.9 pts | +5.4 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Bow East | Green | -0.4 pts | +2.0 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Mile End | Conservative | -4.3 pts | -2.1 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Poplar | Conservative | +0.1 pts | -2.1 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Weavers | Conservative | +0.1 pts | -2.1 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Limehouse | Liberal Democrats | +7.5 pts | +5.4 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Whitechapel | Green | +4.0 pts | +2.0 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Spitalfields and Banglatown | Liberal Democrats | +3.4 pts | +5.4 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley North | Green | -0.1 pts | +2.0 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Shadwell | Green | -0.0 pts | +2.0 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Lansbury | Liberal Democrats | +7.4 pts | +5.4 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley North | Conservative | -0.1 pts | -2.1 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Bow West | Conservative | -4.0 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Weavers | Liberal Democrats | +3.5 pts | +5.4 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Mile End | Liberal Democrats | +3.6 pts | +5.4 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Spitalfields and Banglatown | Conservative | -0.3 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Shadwell | Conservative | -3.8 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | St Peter's | Conservative | -0.4 pts | -2.1 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley South | Green | +0.5 pts | +2.0 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Mile End | Labour | +8.7 pts | +7.2 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Bow East | Conservative | -3.5 pts | -2.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Bethnal Green | Green | +3.2 pts | +2.0 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Bow West | Labour | +8.4 pts | +7.2 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Whitechapel | Liberal Democrats | +4.4 pts | +5.4 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Spitalfields and Banglatown | Green | +1.0 pts | +2.0 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Canary Wharf | Liberal Democrats | +6.2 pts | +5.4 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2018 | St Dunstan's | Green | +1.3 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2018 | Bow East | Liberal Democrats | +4.8 pts | +5.4 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2018 | St Dunstan's | Conservative | -2.5 pts | -2.1 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley South | Labour | +7.6 pts | +7.2 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Stepney Green | Green | +1.7 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Whitechapel | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -2.1 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Canary Wharf | Conservative | -2.2 pts | -2.1 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Bromley South | Conservative | -1.9 pts | -2.1 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Bow West | Liberal Democrats | +5.4 pts | +5.4 pts | +0.0 pts |