Vale of Glamorgan: wards that bucked the trend
Vale of Glamorgan: in 2022, 29 ward results beat the expected swing and 29 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Peterston-super-Ely (-56.4 pts actual vs -10.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Peterston-super-Ely | Conservative | -56.4 pts | -10.4 pts | -46.0 pts |
| 2022 | St Bride's Major | Conservative | -37.3 pts | -10.4 pts | -26.8 pts |
| 2022 | Llandough | Conservative | +12.7 pts | -10.4 pts | +23.1 pts |
| 2022 | Wenvoe | Labour | +26.2 pts | +8.1 pts | +18.1 pts |
| 2022 | St Athan | Labour | -9.3 pts | +8.1 pts | -17.4 pts |
| 2022 | Llandough | Labour | -9.2 pts | +8.1 pts | -17.3 pts |
| 2022 | Buttrills | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +22.5 pts | +6.7 pts | +15.8 pts |
| 2022 | Castleland | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +21.8 pts | +6.7 pts | +15.1 pts |
| 2022 | Stanwell | Labour | +20.9 pts | +8.1 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2022 | Rhoose | Independent | -15.9 pts | -3.2 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2022 | St Bride's Major | Labour | +20.5 pts | +8.1 pts | +12.4 pts |
| 2022 | Baruc | Conservative | -22.2 pts | -10.4 pts | -11.8 pts |
| 2022 | Wenvoe | Conservative | +1.1 pts | -10.4 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2022 | Peterston-super-Ely | Labour | -2.7 pts | +8.1 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2022 | Llantwit Major | Labour | +18.6 pts | +8.1 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2022 | St Augustine's | Conservative | -1.2 pts | -10.4 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2022 | Rhoose | Labour | -1.1 pts | +8.1 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2022 | Cornerswell | Labour | +16.6 pts | +8.1 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2022 | Sully | Conservative | -1.9 pts | -10.4 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2022 | Cowbridge | Conservative | -18.7 pts | -10.4 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2022 | Baruc | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | -1.3 pts | +6.7 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2022 | Stanwell | Conservative | -2.7 pts | -10.4 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2022 | Dinas Powys | Labour | +0.8 pts | +8.1 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2022 | Illtyd | Labour | +1.0 pts | +8.1 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2022 | Castleland | Conservative | -3.7 pts | -10.4 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2022 | Dinas Powys | Conservative | -3.7 pts | -10.4 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2022 | Cadoc | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -10.4 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2022 | Court | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -10.4 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2022 | Rhoose | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -10.4 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2022 | Dinas Powys | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +12.5 pts | +6.7 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2022 | Cornerswell | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +1.1 pts | +6.7 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2022 | Illtyd | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +12.3 pts | +6.7 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2022 | Buttrills | Labour | +2.7 pts | +8.1 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2022 | Court | Labour | +2.7 pts | +8.1 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2022 | Castleland | Green | -2.3 pts | +3.0 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2022 | Cowbridge | Independent | +1.9 pts | -3.2 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2022 | St Augustine's | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +1.8 pts | +6.7 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2022 | Sully | Labour | +12.9 pts | +8.1 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2022 | Sully | Independent | -7.2 pts | -3.2 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2022 | Gibbonsdown | Conservative | -6.8 pts | -10.4 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Court | Green | -0.4 pts | +3.0 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2022 | Dyfan | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +3.5 pts | +6.7 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Gibbonsdown | Labour | +4.9 pts | +8.1 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2022 | St Augustine's | Labour | +11.3 pts | +8.1 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Illtyd | Conservative | -13.4 pts | -10.4 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Dyfan | Labour | +10.9 pts | +8.1 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Castleland | Labour | +5.6 pts | +8.1 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Gibbonsdown | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +4.3 pts | +6.7 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Llantwit Major | Conservative | -12.8 pts | -10.4 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Buttrills | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -10.4 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2022 | St Athan | Conservative | -8.7 pts | -10.4 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Cowbridge | Labour | +6.4 pts | +8.1 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Baruc | Labour | +9.6 pts | +8.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Cadoc | Labour | +7.3 pts | +8.1 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Cadoc | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | +6.5 pts | +6.7 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | St Augustine's | Green | +3.2 pts | +3.0 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Dyfan | Conservative | -10.5 pts | -10.4 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Cornerswell | Conservative | -10.4 pts | -10.4 pts | +0.0 pts |