Waltham Forest: wards that bucked the trend
Waltham Forest: in 2018, 46 ward results beat the expected swing and 39 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Wood Street (-35.9 pts actual vs -0.3 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Wood Street | Labour | -35.9 pts | -0.3 pts | -35.6 pts |
| 2018 | Cathall | Labour | -22.5 pts | -0.3 pts | -22.2 pts |
| 2018 | Larkswood | Labour | -20.8 pts | -0.3 pts | -20.5 pts |
| 2018 | Forest | Labour | +13.2 pts | -0.3 pts | +13.6 pts |
| 2018 | Leytonstone | Labour | +11.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2018 | Wood Street | Conservative | -8.2 pts | +3.3 pts | -11.4 pts |
| 2018 | Hale End and Highams Park | Labour | +11.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2018 | Grove Green | Labour | +9.4 pts | -0.3 pts | +9.7 pts |
| 2018 | Valley | Labour | +9.3 pts | -0.3 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2018 | Cann Hall | Labour | +9.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +9.4 pts |
| 2018 | Chapel End | Labour | +9.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2018 | Hoe Street | Green | -8.6 pts | -0.1 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2018 | Endlebury | Conservative | +11.0 pts | +3.3 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2018 | Hoe Street | Liberal Democrats | +4.5 pts | -3.1 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2018 | Higham Hill | Liberal Democrats | -10.5 pts | -3.1 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2018 | High Street | Labour | +6.8 pts | -0.3 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2018 | Grove Green | Conservative | -3.2 pts | +3.3 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2018 | Wood Street | Liberal Democrats | +3.4 pts | -3.1 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2018 | Chapel End | Liberal Democrats | -8.6 pts | -3.1 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2018 | Higham Hill | Labour | +5.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2018 | Leyton | Liberal Democrats | +2.2 pts | -3.1 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2018 | Cann Hall | Conservative | -2.0 pts | +3.3 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2018 | High Street | Liberal Democrats | -8.2 pts | -3.1 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2018 | Leytonstone | Liberal Democrats | -7.9 pts | -3.1 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2018 | Lea Bridge | Labour | +4.5 pts | -0.3 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2018 | Lea Bridge | Conservative | -1.5 pts | +3.3 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2018 | Chingford Green | Liberal Democrats | +1.6 pts | -3.1 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2018 | Chingford Green | Labour | +4.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2018 | Larkswood | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | -3.1 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2018 | Forest | Liberal Democrats | -7.4 pts | -3.1 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2018 | Leytonstone | Conservative | -1.1 pts | +3.3 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2018 | William Morris | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | -3.1 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Leyton | Conservative | -1.0 pts | +3.3 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Hatch Lane | Labour | -4.5 pts | -0.3 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2018 | Cathall | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | -3.1 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2018 | Leyton | Labour | +3.5 pts | -0.3 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2018 | Endlebury | Liberal Democrats | +0.6 pts | -3.1 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2018 | Cann Hall | Liberal Democrats | -6.7 pts | -3.1 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2018 | Forest | Conservative | +0.0 pts | +3.3 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2018 | Cathall | Conservative | +0.0 pts | +3.3 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2018 | Chingford Green | Conservative | +6.3 pts | +3.3 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2018 | Markhouse | TUSC | -4.8 pts | -1.9 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Hoe Street | Labour | +2.4 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Hoe Street | TUSC | +0.9 pts | -1.9 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2018 | High Street | Conservative | +0.7 pts | +3.3 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2018 | Hoe Street | Conservative | +0.8 pts | +3.3 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2018 | Endlebury | Labour | +2.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2018 | Markhouse | Conservative | +5.6 pts | +3.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Hatch Lane | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | -3.1 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Hale End and Highams Park | Conservative | +1.2 pts | +3.3 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Hale End and Highams Park | Liberal Democrats | -5.1 pts | -3.1 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Markhouse | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | -3.1 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Markhouse | Green | -2.1 pts | -0.1 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Hatch Lane | Green | +1.8 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Valley | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | -3.1 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2018 | William Morris | Conservative | +1.5 pts | +3.3 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | High Street | TUSC | -0.1 pts | -1.9 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Cathall | TUSC | -0.3 pts | -1.9 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Endlebury | Green | -1.5 pts | -0.1 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Markhouse | Labour | +1.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2018 | High Street | Green | +1.3 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Chapel End | Conservative | +4.4 pts | +3.3 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Cann Hall | TUSC | -0.8 pts | -1.9 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2018 | Grove Green | Liberal Democrats | -4.1 pts | -3.1 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2018 | Chapel End | Green | +0.9 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Lea Bridge | Liberal Democrats | -4.0 pts | -3.1 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | William Morris | TUSC | -2.8 pts | -1.9 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | William Morris | Labour | +0.6 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Grove Green | Green | -0.9 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Grove Green | TUSC | -1.1 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2018 | Valley | Conservative | +4.0 pts | +3.3 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2018 | Forest | Green | +0.6 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2018 | Lea Bridge | Green | +0.5 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2018 | William Morris | Green | +0.4 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Cann Hall | Green | +0.4 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Larkswood | Conservative | +3.0 pts | +3.3 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Cathall | Green | -0.3 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Leytonstone | Green | -0.3 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Hatch Lane | Conservative | +3.1 pts | +3.3 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Leyton | TUSC | -2.0 pts | -1.9 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Wood Street | Green | +0.0 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Higham Hill | Conservative | +3.2 pts | +3.3 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Hale End and Highams Park | Green | -0.1 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Leytonstone | TUSC | -1.9 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2018 | Wood Street | TUSC | -1.9 pts | -1.9 pts | -0.0 pts |