Warwickshire: wards that bucked the trend
Warwickshire: in 2025, 99 ward results beat the expected swing and 95 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Coleshill North and Water Orton (-53.4 pts actual vs -23.1 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Coleshill North and Water Orton | Conservative | -53.4 pts | -23.1 pts | -30.3 pts |
| 2025 | Bedworth Central | Conservative | -52.4 pts | -23.1 pts | -29.3 pts |
| 2025 | Hartshill and Mancetter | Conservative | -46.7 pts | -23.1 pts | -23.6 pts |
| 2025 | Warwick North | Labour | -33.2 pts | -10.5 pts | -22.7 pts |
| 2025 | Arden | Conservative | -45.0 pts | -23.1 pts | -21.9 pts |
| 2025 | Bedworth East | Conservative | -44.1 pts | -23.1 pts | -21.0 pts |
| 2025 | Warwick South | Green | +19.8 pts | -0.5 pts | +20.3 pts |
| 2025 | Kingsbury | Conservative | -43.2 pts | -23.1 pts | -20.1 pts |
| 2025 | Arbury | Conservative | -42.4 pts | -23.1 pts | -19.3 pts |
| 2025 | Baddesley and Dordon | Conservative | -42.3 pts | -23.1 pts | -19.2 pts |
| 2025 | Dunsmore and Leam Valley | Liberal Democrats | +20.2 pts | +1.5 pts | +18.7 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Willes | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -23.1 pts | +18.7 pts |
| 2025 | Stour and the Vale | Liberal Democrats | -16.7 pts | +1.5 pts | -18.2 pts |
| 2025 | Arden | Liberal Democrats | +19.7 pts | +1.5 pts | +18.2 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Brunswick | Conservative | -4.9 pts | -23.1 pts | +18.2 pts |
| 2025 | Galley Common | Conservative | -41.2 pts | -23.1 pts | -18.2 pts |
| 2025 | Cubbington and Leek Wootton | Liberal Democrats | +19.3 pts | +1.5 pts | +17.7 pts |
| 2025 | Kenilworth Park Hill | Conservative | -6.6 pts | -23.1 pts | +16.5 pts |
| 2025 | Stour and the Vale | Conservative | -6.8 pts | -23.1 pts | +16.2 pts |
| 2025 | Stratford North | Conservative | -6.9 pts | -23.1 pts | +16.2 pts |
| 2025 | Camp Hill | Conservative | -38.9 pts | -23.1 pts | -15.9 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Milverton | Conservative | -7.5 pts | -23.1 pts | +15.6 pts |
| 2025 | Whitnash | Conservative | -7.5 pts | -23.1 pts | +15.6 pts |
| 2025 | Lapworth and West Kenilworth | Green | +15.1 pts | -0.5 pts | +15.6 pts |
| 2025 | Attleborough | Reform UK | +46.0 pts | +30.5 pts | +15.5 pts |
| 2025 | Polesworth | Labour | -25.7 pts | -10.5 pts | -15.2 pts |
| 2025 | Stockingford | Conservative | -37.9 pts | -23.1 pts | -14.8 pts |
| 2025 | Wellesbourne | Liberal Democrats | +16.1 pts | +1.5 pts | +14.6 pts |
| 2025 | Coleshill South and Arley | Conservative | -36.5 pts | -23.1 pts | -13.5 pts |
| 2025 | Bulkington and Whitestone | Conservative | -36.1 pts | -23.1 pts | -13.1 pts |
| 2025 | Studley | Liberal Democrats | -11.5 pts | +1.5 pts | -13.0 pts |
| 2025 | Bedworth West | Conservative | -35.7 pts | -23.1 pts | -12.6 pts |
| 2025 | Stratford West | Conservative | -10.6 pts | -23.1 pts | +12.5 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington North | Conservative | -11.0 pts | -23.1 pts | +12.1 pts |
| 2025 | Stratford West | Liberal Democrats | -10.4 pts | +1.5 pts | -12.0 pts |
| 2025 | Warwick South | Liberal Democrats | -10.4 pts | +1.5 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2025 | Nuneaton Abbey | Labour | -22.4 pts | -10.5 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2025 | Budbrooke and Bishop's Tachbrook | Labour | +1.3 pts | -10.5 pts | +11.8 pts |
| 2025 | Stratford South | Reform UK | +18.7 pts | +30.5 pts | -11.8 pts |
| 2025 | Cubbington and Leek Wootton | Conservative | -34.6 pts | -23.1 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2025 | Shipston | Conservative | -11.8 pts | -23.1 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2025 | Nuneaton East | Green | -11.8 pts | -0.5 pts | -11.3 pts |
| 2025 | Alcester | Labour | +0.7 pts | -10.5 pts | +11.2 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Clarendon | Conservative | -12.2 pts | -23.1 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2025 | Kenilworth Park Hill | Green | -11.3 pts | -0.5 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2025 | Dunsmore and Leam Valley | Conservative | -33.7 pts | -23.1 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2025 | Feldon | Liberal Democrats | +11.7 pts | +1.5 pts | +10.2 pts |
| 2025 | Bedworth North | Conservative | -32.7 pts | -23.1 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2025 | Hartshill and Mancetter | Labour | -1.0 pts | -10.5 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2025 | Earl Craven | Labour | -1.2 pts | -10.5 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2025 | Earl Craven | Conservative | -32.1 pts | -23.1 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2025 | Nuneaton East | Labour | -1.6 pts | -10.5 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2025 | Kenilworth Park Hill | Labour | -1.7 pts | -10.5 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2025 | Shipston | Labour | -1.8 pts | -10.5 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2025 | Stratford West | Labour | -2.1 pts | -10.5 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2025 | Southam, Stockton and Napton | Conservative | -14.9 pts | -23.1 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2025 | Hillmorton | Conservative | -14.9 pts | -23.1 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Willes | Labour | -18.7 pts | -10.5 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2025 | Stratford South | Labour | -2.3 pts | -10.5 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Willes | Green | +7.6 pts | -0.5 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2025 | Admirals and Cawston | Conservative | -15.2 pts | -23.1 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2025 | Coleshill North and Water Orton | Green | -8.0 pts | -0.5 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2025 | Studley | Labour | -3.3 pts | -10.5 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2025 | Benn | Conservative | -15.9 pts | -23.1 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2025 | Feldon | Green | -7.5 pts | -0.5 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2025 | Bedworth Central | Labour | -17.1 pts | -10.5 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2025 | Fosse | Conservative | -16.5 pts | -23.1 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2025 | Galley Common | Labour | -17.0 pts | -10.5 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2025 | Stratford South | Conservative | -16.6 pts | -23.1 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2025 | Warwick North | Conservative | -29.5 pts | -23.1 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2025 | Eastlands | Conservative | -16.7 pts | -23.1 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2025 | Earl Craven | Green | -6.9 pts | -0.5 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2025 | Lapworth and West Kenilworth | Conservative | -16.7 pts | -23.1 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2025 | Studley | Conservative | -17.0 pts | -23.1 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2025 | Whitnash | Green | +5.5 pts | -0.5 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Milverton | Liberal Democrats | -4.4 pts | +1.5 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2025 | Weddington | Labour | -4.5 pts | -10.5 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2025 | Hillmorton | Labour | -4.6 pts | -10.5 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2025 | Shipston | Liberal Democrats | -4.2 pts | +1.5 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2025 | Feldon | Labour | -4.8 pts | -10.5 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2025 | Bilton and Hillside | Conservative | -17.5 pts | -23.1 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2025 | Bilton and Hillside | Labour | -4.9 pts | -10.5 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2025 | Kenilworth St John's | Green | +4.8 pts | -0.5 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2025 | Kenilworth St John's | Liberal Democrats | +6.8 pts | +1.5 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2025 | Kineton and Red Horse | Labour | -5.2 pts | -10.5 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2025 | Kenilworth St John's | Labour | -5.3 pts | -10.5 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Clarendon | Liberal Democrats | +6.6 pts | +1.5 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2025 | Coleshill North and Water Orton | Labour | -15.6 pts | -10.5 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Milverton | Labour | -5.5 pts | -10.5 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2025 | Atherstone | Labour | -15.5 pts | -10.5 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2025 | Shipston | Green | -5.4 pts | -0.5 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2025 | Admirals and Cawston | Liberal Democrats | -3.4 pts | +1.5 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2025 | Bidford and Welford | Conservative | -27.9 pts | -23.1 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2025 | Alcester | Liberal Democrats | -3.3 pts | +1.5 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2025 | Wellesbourne | Conservative | -27.9 pts | -23.1 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2025 | Warwick West | Conservative | -18.3 pts | -23.1 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2025 | Stockingford | Labour | -15.3 pts | -10.5 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2025 | Wellesbourne | Labour | -5.8 pts | -10.5 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2025 | Stratford North | Green | -5.0 pts | -0.5 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2025 | Atherstone | Conservative | -27.5 pts | -23.1 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2025 | Bulkington and Whitestone | Labour | -6.2 pts | -10.5 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2025 | Warwick North | Liberal Democrats | -2.8 pts | +1.5 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2025 | Nuneaton East | Conservative | -27.3 pts | -23.1 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2025 | Warwick South | Conservative | -18.9 pts | -23.1 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2025 | Cubbington and Leek Wootton | Green | +3.7 pts | -0.5 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2025 | Baddesley and Dordon | Labour | -6.3 pts | -10.5 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2025 | Lapworth and West Kenilworth | Labour | -6.3 pts | -10.5 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Clarendon | Green | +3.6 pts | -0.5 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2025 | Arden | Green | -4.6 pts | -0.5 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2025 | Budbrooke and Bishop's Tachbrook | Green | -4.5 pts | -0.5 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2025 | Eastlands | Labour | -6.5 pts | -10.5 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Milverton | Green | +3.5 pts | -0.5 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2025 | Eastlands | Liberal Democrats | -2.4 pts | +1.5 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2025 | New Bilton and Overslade | Conservative | -19.2 pts | -23.1 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington North | Green | +3.3 pts | -0.5 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2025 | Bedworth West | Labour | -14.2 pts | -10.5 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2025 | Brownsover and Coton Park | Liberal Democrats | +5.2 pts | +1.5 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2025 | Kenilworth St John's | Conservative | -19.5 pts | -23.1 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2025 | Southam, Stockton and Napton | Green | +3.1 pts | -0.5 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2025 | Hillmorton | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | +1.5 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2025 | Warwick West | Labour | -13.9 pts | -10.5 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2025 | Bidford and Welford | Labour | -7.1 pts | -10.5 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2025 | Attleborough | Conservative | -26.4 pts | -23.1 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2025 | Southam, Stockton and Napton | Labour | -7.3 pts | -10.5 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2025 | Bedworth North | Labour | -13.6 pts | -10.5 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Brunswick | Green | +2.6 pts | -0.5 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2025 | Arden | Labour | -7.4 pts | -10.5 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2025 | Coleshill South and Arley | Labour | -13.6 pts | -10.5 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2025 | Nuneaton Abbey | Green | +2.6 pts | -0.5 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2025 | Coleshill South and Arley | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | +1.5 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2025 | Cubbington and Leek Wootton | Labour | -13.4 pts | -10.5 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2025 | Polesworth | Conservative | -26.0 pts | -23.1 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2025 | Weddington | Conservative | -25.9 pts | -23.1 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2025 | Warwick West | Green | +2.3 pts | -0.5 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2025 | Camp Hill | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | -2.4 pts | +0.3 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2025 | Wellesbourne | Green | -3.2 pts | -0.5 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2025 | Arbury | Liberal Democrats | +4.2 pts | +1.5 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2025 | Camp Hill | Labour | -13.2 pts | -10.5 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2025 | Admirals and Cawston | Labour | -7.9 pts | -10.5 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington North | Labour | -13.1 pts | -10.5 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2025 | Benn | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | +1.5 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2025 | Bilton and Hillside | Liberal Democrats | +4.0 pts | +1.5 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2025 | Brownsover and Coton Park | Conservative | -20.8 pts | -23.1 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2025 | Camp Hill | Green | +1.7 pts | -0.5 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2025 | Dunsmore and Leam Valley | Green | -2.6 pts | -0.5 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2025 | Stratford South | Green | -2.4 pts | -0.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Brunswick | Liberal Democrats | -0.3 pts | +1.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2025 | Fosse | Liberal Democrats | -0.3 pts | +1.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2025 | Kineton and Red Horse | Conservative | -21.3 pts | -23.1 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Clarendon | Independent | -2.0 pts | -0.2 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2025 | Atherstone | Green | -2.2 pts | -0.5 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2025 | Fosse | Green | -2.2 pts | -0.5 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2025 | Southam, Stockton and Napton | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | +1.5 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2025 | Dunsmore and Leam Valley | Labour | -12.2 pts | -10.5 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington North | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | +1.5 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2025 | Stratford North | Liberal Democrats | -0.0 pts | +1.5 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2025 | Budbrooke and Bishop's Tachbrook | Conservative | -21.6 pts | -23.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2025 | Nuneaton Abbey | Conservative | -21.6 pts | -23.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2025 | Kingsbury | Labour | -9.1 pts | -10.5 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Clarendon | Labour | -11.9 pts | -10.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2025 | Arbury | Labour | -9.2 pts | -10.5 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2025 | New Bilton and Overslade | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | +1.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2025 | Whitnash | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.3 pts | -0.0 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2025 | Stratford West | Green | -1.7 pts | -0.5 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2025 | New Bilton and Overslade | Green | -1.7 pts | -0.5 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2025 | Attleborough | Green | +0.7 pts | -0.5 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2025 | Bulkington and Whitestone | Green | -1.7 pts | -0.5 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2025 | Budbrooke and Bishop's Tachbrook | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | +1.5 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2025 | Stratford South | Liberal Democrats | +2.6 pts | +1.5 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2025 | Kineton and Red Horse | Liberal Democrats | +0.6 pts | +1.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2025 | Bedworth East | Green | +0.4 pts | -0.5 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2025 | Coleshill South and Arley | Green | +0.4 pts | -0.5 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2025 | Alcester | Green | -1.4 pts | -0.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2025 | New Bilton and Overslade | Labour | -11.4 pts | -10.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2025 | Kenilworth Park Hill | Liberal Democrats | +2.4 pts | +1.5 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2025 | Alcester | Conservative | -22.4 pts | -23.1 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2025 | Bidford and Welford | Green | -1.2 pts | -0.5 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2025 | Leamington Willes | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | +1.5 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2025 | Feldon | Conservative | -22.5 pts | -23.1 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2025 | Kineton and Red Horse | Green | +0.1 pts | -0.5 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2025 | Bedworth West | Green | +0.1 pts | -0.5 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2025 | Benn | Green | -1.1 pts | -0.5 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2025 | Warwick West | Liberal Democrats | +2.1 pts | +1.5 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2025 | Weddington | Green | -0.0 pts | -0.5 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2025 | Studley | Green | -1.0 pts | -0.5 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2025 | Admirals and Cawston | Green | -0.1 pts | -0.5 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2025 | Stour and the Vale | Green | -0.1 pts | -0.5 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2025 | Stockingford | Green | -0.2 pts | -0.5 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2025 | Whitnash | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | +1.5 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2025 | Eastlands | Green | -0.3 pts | -0.5 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2025 | Galley Common | Green | -0.3 pts | -0.5 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2025 | Lapworth and West Kenilworth | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | +1.5 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2025 | Fosse | Labour | -10.6 pts | -10.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2025 | Bidford and Welford | Liberal Democrats | +1.6 pts | +1.5 pts | +0.1 pts |