Watford: wards that bucked the trend
Watford: in 2024, 16 ward results beat the expected swing and 24 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Vicarage (-19.6 pts actual vs +1.7 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Vicarage | Labour | -19.6 pts | +1.7 pts | -21.3 pts |
| 2024 | Vicarage | Liberal Democrats | +13.8 pts | -1.5 pts | +15.3 pts |
| 2024 | Leggatts | Liberal Democrats | +8.2 pts | -1.5 pts | +9.7 pts |
| 2024 | Holywell | Labour | -7.9 pts | +1.7 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2024 | Holywell | Conservative | +8.6 pts | -0.9 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2024 | Stanborough | Liberal Democrats | -8.0 pts | -1.5 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2024 | Stanborough | Reform UK | +8.5 pts | +2.3 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2024 | Tudor | Conservative | -6.9 pts | -0.9 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2024 | Central | Liberal Democrats | -7.5 pts | -1.5 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2024 | Callowland | Liberal Democrats | +4.3 pts | -1.5 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2024 | Oxhey | Conservative | -6.3 pts | -0.9 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2024 | Central | Labour | -2.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2024 | Central | Conservative | +3.5 pts | -0.9 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2024 | Nascot | Conservative | -5.0 pts | -0.9 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2024 | Park | Reform UK | +6.1 pts | +2.3 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2024 | Woodside | Liberal Democrats | -5.1 pts | -1.5 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2024 | Holywell | Liberal Democrats | -5.0 pts | -1.5 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2024 | Tudor | Liberal Democrats | -4.9 pts | -1.5 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Callowland | Conservative | -4.2 pts | -0.9 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2024 | Woodside | Labour | +5.0 pts | +1.7 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2024 | Leggatts | Conservative | +1.9 pts | -0.9 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2024 | Park | Labour | -1.1 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2024 | Park | Conservative | -3.4 pts | -0.9 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Stanborough | Conservative | +1.5 pts | -0.9 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Oxhey | Labour | -0.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2024 | Callowland | Labour | -0.1 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2024 | Nascot | Reform UK | +0.7 pts | +2.3 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2024 | Central | Reform UK | +0.7 pts | +2.3 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2024 | Nascot | Labour | +0.2 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2024 | Leggatts | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | +1.7 pts | +0.5 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2024 | Woodside | Conservative | +0.2 pts | -0.9 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2024 | Tudor | Labour | +2.4 pts | +1.7 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2024 | Oxhey | Reform UK | +2.9 pts | +2.3 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2024 | Nascot | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | -1.5 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2024 | Stanborough | Labour | +1.2 pts | +1.7 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2024 | Vicarage | Conservative | -0.4 pts | -0.9 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Oxhey | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -1.5 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2024 | Leggatts | Heritage Party | -0.2 pts | -0.0 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2024 | Park | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | -1.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2024 | Holywell | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | +0.4 pts | +0.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2023 | Vicarage | Labour | +14.3 pts | -1.2 pts | +15.4 pts |
| 2023 | Stanborough | Liberal Democrats | +7.1 pts | -2.0 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2023 | Stanborough | Conservative | -12.0 pts | -3.0 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2023 | Woodside | Labour | +6.8 pts | -1.2 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2023 | Leggatts | Liberal Democrats | -9.9 pts | -2.0 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2023 | Vicarage | Conservative | -9.5 pts | -3.0 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2023 | Central | Labour | +4.7 pts | -1.2 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2023 | Tudor | Conservative | +2.5 pts | -3.0 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2023 | Callowland | Labour | +4.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2023 | Holywell | Labour | +4.1 pts | -1.2 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2023 | Callowland | Conservative | +1.7 pts | -3.0 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2023 | Tudor | Liberal Democrats | +2.1 pts | -2.0 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2023 | Callowland | Liberal Democrats | -5.9 pts | -2.0 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2023 | Oxhey | Conservative | +0.7 pts | -3.0 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2023 | Tudor | Labour | -4.6 pts | -1.2 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Oxhey | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | -2.0 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Vicarage | Liberal Democrats | -4.7 pts | -2.0 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2023 | Woodside | Conservative | -5.5 pts | -3.0 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2023 | Leggatts | Conservative | -1.1 pts | -3.0 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2023 | Holywell | Liberal Democrats | -0.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2023 | Holywell | Conservative | -4.6 pts | -3.0 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2023 | Oxhey | Labour | -2.6 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Park | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2023 | Central | Conservative | -1.7 pts | -3.0 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2023 | Stanborough | Labour | -2.3 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Woodside | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2023 | Nascot | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -3.0 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2023 | Park | Conservative | -2.5 pts | -3.0 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Park | Labour | -1.5 pts | -1.2 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2023 | Central | Liberal Democrats | -1.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Nascot | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | -2.0 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2023 | Nascot | Labour | -1.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2019 | Leggatts | Conservative | +8.3 pts | -6.6 pts | +14.9 pts |
| 2019 | Leggatts | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | +12.9 pts | -14.1 pts |
| 2019 | Callowland | Liberal Democrats | +24.0 pts | +12.9 pts | +11.2 pts |
| 2019 | Stanborough | Liberal Democrats | +20.4 pts | +12.9 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Woodside | Conservative | -13.3 pts | -6.6 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2019 | Callowland | Labour | -11.9 pts | -5.6 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2019 | Woodside | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +6.3 pts | +0.5 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Oxhey | Labour | -0.7 pts | -5.6 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Stanborough | Labour | -0.9 pts | -5.6 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Holywell | Conservative | -2.2 pts | -6.6 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Holywell | Liberal Democrats | +8.5 pts | +12.9 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Vicarage | Liberal Democrats | +9.0 pts | +12.9 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Tudor | Liberal Democrats | +16.4 pts | +12.9 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Central | Labour | -2.3 pts | -5.6 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Oxhey | Liberal Democrats | +9.6 pts | +12.9 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Nascot | Conservative | -3.6 pts | -6.6 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Central | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -6.6 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Park | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +3.2 pts | +0.5 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Tudor | Labour | -7.9 pts | -5.6 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Park | Liberal Democrats | +10.6 pts | +12.9 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Oxhey | Conservative | -8.9 pts | -6.6 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Vicarage | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -6.6 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Park | Conservative | -8.8 pts | -6.6 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Tudor | Conservative | -8.4 pts | -6.6 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Nascot | Liberal Democrats | +11.1 pts | +12.9 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Leggatts | Labour | -7.0 pts | -5.6 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Woodside | Labour | -7.0 pts | -5.6 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Woodside | Liberal Democrats | +14.0 pts | +12.9 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Vicarage | Labour | -4.6 pts | -5.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Nascot | Labour | -4.7 pts | -5.6 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Park | Labour | -4.9 pts | -5.6 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Central | Liberal Democrats | +12.2 pts | +12.9 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Holywell | Labour | -6.2 pts | -5.6 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Callowland | Conservative | -6.2 pts | -6.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2016 | Vicarage | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | +14.1 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2016 | Leggatts | Labour | +14.5 pts | +0.9 pts | +13.6 pts |
| 2016 | Holywell | Liberal Democrats | +0.7 pts | +14.1 pts | -13.4 pts |
| 2016 | Leggatts | Liberal Democrats | +1.8 pts | +14.1 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2016 | Vicarage | Labour | +10.7 pts | +0.9 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2016 | Tudor | Liberal Democrats | +23.6 pts | +14.1 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2016 | Woodside | Liberal Democrats | +23.3 pts | +14.1 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2016 | Holywell | Labour | +9.5 pts | +0.9 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2016 | Stanborough | Green | -9.1 pts | -1.3 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2016 | Stanborough | Liberal Democrats | +20.4 pts | +14.1 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2016 | Park | Liberal Democrats | +8.7 pts | +14.1 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2016 | Woodside | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.7 pts | -6.6 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2016 | Tudor | Conservative | -11.7 pts | -6.8 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2016 | Nascot | Labour | -3.8 pts | +0.9 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2016 | Callowland | Conservative | -11.5 pts | -6.8 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2016 | Oxhey | Conservative | -11.5 pts | -6.8 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2016 | Central | Conservative | -10.9 pts | -6.8 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2016 | Park | Conservative | -2.7 pts | -6.8 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2016 | Holywell | Green | +2.7 pts | -1.3 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2016 | Callowland | Liberal Democrats | +17.4 pts | +14.1 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2016 | Stanborough | Labour | -2.4 pts | +0.9 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2016 | Park | Labour | -1.9 pts | +0.9 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2016 | Vicarage | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.7 pts | -6.6 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2016 | Vicarage | Green | +1.5 pts | -1.3 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2016 | Woodside | Labour | -1.8 pts | +0.9 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2016 | Leggatts | Green | +0.9 pts | -1.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2016 | Nascot | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.3 pts | -6.6 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2016 | Callowland | Labour | +3.1 pts | +0.9 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2016 | Tudor | Labour | +3.0 pts | +0.9 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2016 | Park | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.4 pts | -6.6 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2016 | Woodside | Conservative | -8.9 pts | -6.8 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2016 | Central | Labour | +2.7 pts | +0.9 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2016 | Central | Liberal Democrats | +15.8 pts | +14.1 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2016 | Park | Green | +0.4 pts | -1.3 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2016 | Leggatts | Conservative | -5.3 pts | -6.8 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2016 | Central | Green | +0.1 pts | -1.3 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2016 | Holywell | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.2 pts | -6.6 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2016 | Nascot | Conservative | -5.5 pts | -6.8 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2016 | Callowland | Green | -0.1 pts | -1.3 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2016 | Oxhey | Green | -2.6 pts | -1.3 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2016 | Nascot | Green | -0.3 pts | -1.3 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2016 | Leggatts | TUSC | +0.9 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2016 | Holywell | Conservative | -7.7 pts | -6.8 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2016 | Oxhey | Labour | +0.0 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2016 | Callowland | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.4 pts | -6.6 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2016 | Tudor | Green | -2.1 pts | -1.3 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2016 | Woodside | Green | -0.9 pts | -1.3 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2016 | Stanborough | Conservative | -6.3 pts | -6.8 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2016 | Stanborough | TUSC | +0.4 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2016 | Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.8 pts | -6.6 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2016 | Holywell | TUSC | +0.1 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2016 | Vicarage | Conservative | -6.6 pts | -6.8 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2016 | Oxhey | Liberal Democrats | +14.2 pts | +14.1 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2016 | Nascot | Liberal Democrats | +13.9 pts | +14.1 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2016 | Oxhey | TUSC | -0.1 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2015 | Park | Liberal Democrats | +7.4 pts | -5.9 pts | +13.4 pts |
| 2015 | Stanborough | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -18.4 pts | -5.5 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2015 | Vicarage | Labour | -10.9 pts | +0.5 pts | -11.4 pts |
| 2015 | Callowland | Green | -8.7 pts | +1.9 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2015 | Woodside | Liberal Democrats | -14.7 pts | -5.9 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2015 | Callowland | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +2.8 pts | -5.5 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2015 | Tudor | Conservative | +19.5 pts | +11.3 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2015 | Tudor | Liberal Democrats | -12.4 pts | -5.9 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2015 | Nascot | Liberal Democrats | -12.3 pts | -5.9 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2015 | Park | Conservative | +5.0 pts | +11.3 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2015 | Holywell | Liberal Democrats | -0.0 pts | -5.9 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2015 | Central | Liberal Democrats | -11.8 pts | -5.9 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2015 | Park | Labour | +5.8 pts | +0.5 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2015 | Vicarage | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | -5.9 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2015 | Stanborough | Labour | +5.6 pts | +0.5 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2015 | Stanborough | Liberal Democrats | -10.6 pts | -5.9 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2015 | Leggatts | Labour | -3.7 pts | +0.5 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2015 | Holywell | Conservative | +7.1 pts | +11.3 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2015 | Leggatts | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | -5.9 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2015 | Leggatts | Green | -1.9 pts | +1.9 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2015 | Park | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.7 pts | -5.5 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2015 | Nascot | Labour | +4.3 pts | +0.5 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2015 | Leggatts | Conservative | +14.8 pts | +11.3 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2015 | Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.3 pts | -5.5 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2015 | Woodside | Conservative | +14.3 pts | +11.3 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2015 | Woodside | Labour | +3.5 pts | +0.5 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2015 | Holywell | Labour | -2.4 pts | +0.5 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2015 | Nascot | Green | -0.8 pts | +1.9 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2015 | Nascot | Conservative | +13.8 pts | +11.3 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2015 | Tudor | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.9 pts | -5.5 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2015 | Holywell | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.8 pts | -5.5 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2015 | Vicarage | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.1 pts | -5.5 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2015 | Vicarage | Conservative | +9.3 pts | +11.3 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2015 | Central | Conservative | +9.4 pts | +11.3 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2015 | Tudor | Green | +0.0 pts | +1.9 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2015 | Oxhey | Liberal Democrats | -7.5 pts | -5.9 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2015 | Woodside | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.7 pts | -5.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2015 | Park | Green | +0.7 pts | +1.9 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2015 | Central | TUSC | -1.6 pts | -0.5 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2015 | Oxhey | Labour | +1.6 pts | +0.5 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2015 | Oxhey | Conservative | +12.3 pts | +11.3 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2015 | Central | Labour | -0.5 pts | +0.5 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2015 | Leggatts | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.4 pts | -5.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2015 | Callowland | Liberal Democrats | -6.9 pts | -5.9 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2015 | Stanborough | Conservative | +12.2 pts | +11.3 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2015 | Vicarage | TUSC | -1.3 pts | -0.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2015 | Nascot | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.0 pts | -5.5 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2015 | Holywell | TUSC | -0.9 pts | -0.5 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2015 | Stanborough | TUSC | -0.9 pts | -0.5 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2015 | Tudor | Labour | +0.9 pts | +0.5 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2015 | Callowland | Labour | +0.2 pts | +0.5 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2015 | Oxhey | TUSC | -0.2 pts | -0.5 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2015 | Leggatts | TUSC | -0.7 pts | -0.5 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2015 | Callowland | Conservative | +11.0 pts | +11.3 pts | -0.2 pts |