Psephology.AI

    Waverley: wards that bucked the trend

    Waverley: in 2019, 28 ward results beat the expected swing and 26 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Ewhurst (+19.9 pts actual vs -20.4 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Waverley: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2019EwhurstConservative+19.9 pts-20.4 pts+40.3 pts
    2019Elstead and ThursleyConservative+7.4 pts-20.4 pts+27.7 pts
    2019Farnham CastleLiberal Democrats-7.6 pts+15.2 pts-22.8 pts
    2019Cranleigh WestConservative+2.0 pts-20.4 pts+22.4 pts
    2019Farnham FirgroveLiberal Democrats-5.8 pts+15.2 pts-21.1 pts
    2019Farnham Moor ParkLiberal Democrats-5.4 pts+15.2 pts-20.6 pts
    2019Witley and HambledonIndependent+15.4 pts-4.4 pts+19.8 pts
    2019HindheadLiberal Democrats+34.2 pts+15.2 pts+18.9 pts
    2019Haslemere Critchmere and ShottermillLiberal Democrats+33.8 pts+15.2 pts+18.6 pts
    2019Godalming CharterhouseGreen+18.9 pts+2.6 pts+16.3 pts
    2019Godalming Central & OckfordConservative-35.9 pts-20.4 pts-15.6 pts
    2019Farnham Weybourne and Badshot LeaLiberal Democrats+29.9 pts+15.2 pts+14.7 pts
    2019Farnham Weybourne and Badshot LeaConservative-34.9 pts-20.4 pts-14.5 pts
    2019Godalming HollowayConservative-34.2 pts-20.4 pts-13.8 pts
    2019Farnham FirgroveConservative-33.9 pts-20.4 pts-13.5 pts
    2019Farnham Moor ParkConservative-33.6 pts-20.4 pts-13.2 pts
    2019Farnham Hale and Heath EndConservative-32.3 pts-20.4 pts-11.9 pts
    2019Witley and HambledonConservative-8.6 pts-20.4 pts+11.8 pts
    2019MilfordConservative-32.0 pts-20.4 pts-11.6 pts
    2019Cranleigh EastConservative-9.0 pts-20.4 pts+11.4 pts
    2019MilfordIndependent+6.9 pts-4.4 pts+11.3 pts
    2019Haslemere Critchmere and ShottermillConservative-29.8 pts-20.4 pts-9.4 pts
    2019Godalming Central & OckfordLabour-12.6 pts-3.9 pts-8.7 pts
    2019Haslemere East and GrayswoodConservative-11.7 pts-20.4 pts+8.7 pts
    2019Godalming CharterhouseLabour+4.6 pts-3.9 pts+8.5 pts
    2019Godalming BinscombeLabour+4.4 pts-3.9 pts+8.3 pts
    2019Godalming Farncombe & CatteshallLiberal Democrats+23.2 pts+15.2 pts+8.0 pts
    2019Farnham Upper HaleConservative-28.0 pts-20.4 pts-7.6 pts
    2019Witley and HambledonLabour+2.8 pts-3.9 pts+6.7 pts
    2019Farnham Shortheath and BoundstoneConservative-27.0 pts-20.4 pts-6.6 pts
    2019Godalming Farncombe & CatteshallLabour+2.4 pts-3.9 pts+6.2 pts
    2019Godalming Farncombe & CatteshallConservative-14.5 pts-20.4 pts+5.9 pts
    2019Farnham CastleConservative-25.6 pts-20.4 pts-5.2 pts
    2019Farnham Weybourne and Badshot LeaLabour-8.9 pts-3.9 pts-5.1 pts
    2019Cranleigh EastLiberal Democrats+20.3 pts+15.2 pts+5.0 pts
    2019Cranleigh WestLiberal Democrats+10.4 pts+15.2 pts-4.8 pts
    2019Farnham Upper HaleLabour+0.9 pts-3.9 pts+4.7 pts
    2019Farnham Wrecclesham and RowledgeLabour-8.1 pts-3.9 pts-4.3 pts
    2019Haslemere East and GrayswoodLiberal Democrats+19.1 pts+15.2 pts+3.9 pts
    2019Farnham Hale and Heath EndLabour-7.2 pts-3.9 pts-3.3 pts
    2019Godalming CharterhouseConservative-23.5 pts-20.4 pts-3.1 pts
    2019Chiddingfold and DunsfoldLabour-6.9 pts-3.9 pts-3.0 pts
    2019Chiddingfold and DunsfoldConservative-17.4 pts-20.4 pts+3.0 pts
    2019Bramley, Busbridge and HascombeConservative-17.7 pts-20.4 pts+2.7 pts
    2019HindheadConservative-18.0 pts-20.4 pts+2.4 pts
    2019Godalming HollowayLabour-1.7 pts-3.9 pts+2.1 pts
    2019MilfordUK Independence Party (UKIP)-5.0 pts-3.2 pts-1.7 pts
    2019Godalming BinscombeLiberal Democrats+16.8 pts+15.2 pts+1.6 pts
    2019Godalming BinscombeConservative-21.3 pts-20.4 pts-0.9 pts
    2019Cranleigh EastLabour-4.6 pts-3.9 pts-0.8 pts
    2019Farnham Shortheath and BoundstoneLabour-3.1 pts-3.9 pts+0.8 pts
    2019Farnham Wrecclesham and RowledgeConservative-21.2 pts-20.4 pts-0.8 pts
    2019Haslemere East and GrayswoodLabour-3.1 pts-3.9 pts+0.7 pts
    2019Farnham FirgroveLabour-3.9 pts-3.9 pts-0.0 pts