West Berkshire: wards that bucked the trend
West Berkshire: in 2023, 37 ward results beat the expected swing and 34 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Tilehurst South & Holybrook (+20.9 pts actual vs -5.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Tilehurst South & Holybrook | Labour | +20.9 pts | -5.5 pts | +26.5 pts |
| 2023 | Bucklebury | Conservative | -28.1 pts | -7.6 pts | -20.4 pts |
| 2023 | Bucklebury | Liberal Democrats | +35.0 pts | +15.3 pts | +19.8 pts |
| 2023 | Tilehurst South & Holybrook | Liberal Democrats | -3.3 pts | +15.3 pts | -18.5 pts |
| 2023 | Downlands | Liberal Democrats | -3.0 pts | +15.3 pts | -18.2 pts |
| 2023 | Aldermaston | Liberal Democrats | -2.9 pts | +15.3 pts | -18.2 pts |
| 2023 | Tilehurst & Purley | Labour | -23.5 pts | -5.5 pts | -18.0 pts |
| 2023 | Tilehurst Birch Copse | Labour | +11.6 pts | -5.5 pts | +17.1 pts |
| 2023 | Tilehurst & Purley | Liberal Democrats | +32.1 pts | +15.3 pts | +16.8 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Clay Hill | Liberal Democrats | +30.3 pts | +15.3 pts | +15.0 pts |
| 2023 | Chieveley & Cold Ash | Liberal Democrats | +30.0 pts | +15.3 pts | +14.7 pts |
| 2023 | Lambourn | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | +15.3 pts | -13.9 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Clay Hill | Conservative | -20.4 pts | -7.6 pts | -12.8 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Speen | Green | -14.6 pts | -1.9 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Speen | Liberal Democrats | +27.9 pts | +15.3 pts | +12.6 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham Colthrop & Crookham | Liberal Democrats | +27.7 pts | +15.3 pts | +12.4 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham Colthrop & Crookham | Conservative | -19.9 pts | -7.6 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2023 | Theale | Liberal Democrats | +3.1 pts | +15.3 pts | -12.1 pts |
| 2023 | Chieveley & Cold Ash | Green | -12.3 pts | -1.9 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2023 | Tilehurst South & Holybrook | Conservative | -17.7 pts | -7.6 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Greenham | Liberal Democrats | +5.4 pts | +15.3 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham North East | Liberal Democrats | +5.8 pts | +15.3 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2023 | Pangbourne | Conservative | -16.9 pts | -7.6 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2023 | Ridgeway | Green | +6.9 pts | -1.9 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2023 | Bradfield | Liberal Democrats | +6.8 pts | +15.3 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Central | Conservative | +0.8 pts | -7.6 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2023 | Pangbourne | Liberal Democrats | +22.6 pts | +15.3 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2023 | Theale | Labour | +1.8 pts | -5.5 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham West | Liberal Democrats | +8.6 pts | +15.3 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham West | Labour | +0.9 pts | -5.5 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2023 | Tilehurst Birch Copse | Conservative | -1.4 pts | -7.6 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2023 | Aldermaston | Labour | -0.2 pts | -5.5 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Greenham | Green | +3.4 pts | -1.9 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2023 | Pangbourne | Labour | -10.5 pts | -5.5 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2023 | Chieveley & Cold Ash | Conservative | -12.5 pts | -7.6 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Greenham | Conservative | -2.9 pts | -7.6 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham Central | Conservative | -3.1 pts | -7.6 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2023 | Burghfield & Mortimer | Green | -6.3 pts | -1.9 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham West | Conservative | -3.2 pts | -7.6 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2023 | Lambourn | Conservative | -3.3 pts | -7.6 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.1 pts | -0.9 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham Central | Labour | -1.4 pts | -5.5 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Central | Liberal Democrats | +11.4 pts | +15.3 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2023 | Bradfield | Labour | -1.7 pts | -5.5 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2023 | Aldermaston | Conservative | -4.2 pts | -7.6 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham Central | Liberal Democrats | +11.8 pts | +15.3 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Clay Hill | Green | -5.3 pts | -1.9 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Hungerford & Kintbury | Liberal Democrats | +12.2 pts | +15.3 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2023 | Tilehurst Birch Copse | Liberal Democrats | +12.5 pts | +15.3 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2023 | Theale | Conservative | -4.9 pts | -7.6 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2023 | Bradfield | Conservative | -5.1 pts | -7.6 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2023 | Downlands | Labour | -3.0 pts | -5.5 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2023 | Hungerford & Kintbury | Green | +0.5 pts | -1.9 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2023 | Burghfield & Mortimer | Conservative | -5.3 pts | -7.6 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Wash Common | Conservative | -9.9 pts | -7.6 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2023 | Burghfield & Mortimer | Liberal Democrats | +17.3 pts | +15.3 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2023 | Ridgeway | Conservative | -6.0 pts | -7.6 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Wash Common | Green | -3.3 pts | -1.9 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham Central | Green | -0.5 pts | -1.9 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Greenham | Labour | -4.4 pts | -5.5 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Bucklebury | Green | -2.9 pts | -1.9 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2023 | Downlands | Conservative | -6.6 pts | -7.6 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2023 | Tilehurst & Purley | Conservative | -6.8 pts | -7.6 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham West | Green | -1.2 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Central | Green | -2.5 pts | -1.9 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Speen | Conservative | -7.0 pts | -7.6 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Hungerford & Kintbury | Conservative | -8.2 pts | -7.6 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Newbury Wash Common | Liberal Democrats | +14.9 pts | +15.3 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2023 | Thatcham North East | Conservative | -8.0 pts | -7.6 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2023 | Burghfield & Mortimer | Labour | -5.7 pts | -5.5 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2023 | Tilehurst & Purley | Green | -1.8 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.1 pts |