West Lancashire: wards that bucked the trend
West Lancashire: in 2024, 16 ward results beat the expected swing and 19 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Old Skelmersdale (-86.6 pts actual vs -11.6 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Old Skelmersdale | Labour | -86.6 pts | -11.6 pts | -75.0 pts |
| 2024 | Skelmersdale South | Labour | +49.5 pts | +2.8 pts | +46.7 pts |
| 2024 | Ormskirk West | Labour | +20.3 pts | -11.6 pts | +31.9 pts |
| 2024 | Ormskirk East | Labour | -27.4 pts | +2.8 pts | -30.2 pts |
| 2024 | Burscough Bridge & Rufford | Conservative | -24.9 pts | -1.7 pts | -23.2 pts |
| 2024 | Ormskirk East | Our West Lancashire | -21.3 pts | +1.7 pts | -23.0 pts |
| 2024 | Aughton & Holborn | Conservative | -22.4 pts | -1.7 pts | -20.7 pts |
| 2024 | Skelmersdale North | Labour | -16.3 pts | +2.8 pts | -19.1 pts |
| 2024 | Rural West | Our West Lancashire | +17.5 pts | +1.7 pts | +15.8 pts |
| 2024 | Ormskirk West | Our West Lancashire | +17.2 pts | +1.7 pts | +15.4 pts |
| 2024 | North Meols and Hesketh Bank | Labour | +2.8 pts | -11.6 pts | +14.4 pts |
| 2024 | Rural North East | Labour | +0.2 pts | -11.6 pts | +11.8 pts |
| 2024 | Burscough Town | Labour | -0.1 pts | -11.6 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2024 | Rural West | Conservative | -12.5 pts | -1.7 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2024 | North Meols and Hesketh Bank | Conservative | -10.8 pts | -1.7 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2024 | Rural North East | Conservative | +6.9 pts | -1.7 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2024 | Burscough Town | Conservative | -8.9 pts | -1.7 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2024 | Skelmersdale North | Conservative | +5.3 pts | -1.7 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2024 | Tarleton Village | Labour | -6.9 pts | -11.6 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2024 | Up Holland | Conservative | -5.9 pts | -1.7 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2024 | North Meols and Hesketh Bank | Liberal Democrats | +3.9 pts | +0.1 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2024 | Burscough Town | Our West Lancashire | +4.9 pts | +1.7 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2024 | North Meols and Hesketh Bank | Green | +4.0 pts | +6.9 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2024 | Up Holland | Labour | -9.3 pts | -11.6 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2024 | Burscough Bridge & Rufford | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2024 | Aughton & Holborn | Labour | -13.3 pts | -11.6 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2024 | Burscough Bridge & Rufford | Labour | -13.2 pts | -11.6 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2024 | Tarleton Village | Liberal Democrats | -1.4 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2024 | Tarleton Village | Conservative | -3.0 pts | -1.7 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2024 | Ormskirk East | Conservative | -0.6 pts | -1.7 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2024 | Old Skelmersdale | Conservative | -1.1 pts | -1.7 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2024 | Ormskirk West | Conservative | -1.2 pts | -1.7 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Tanhouse and Skelmersdale Town Centre | Conservative | -2.1 pts | -1.7 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2024 | Skelmersdale South | Conservative | -1.9 pts | -1.7 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2024 | Burscough Town | Liberal Democrats | +0.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.1 pts |