West Lindsey: wards that bucked the trend
West Lindsey: in 2019, 17 ward results beat the expected swing and 16 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in GAINSBOROUGH EAST (+31.3 pts actual vs +1.6 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | GAINSBOROUGH EAST | Independent | +31.3 pts | +1.6 pts | +29.7 pts |
| 2019 | Caistor and Yarborough | Conservative | +25.2 pts | -3.5 pts | +28.7 pts |
| 2019 | KELSEY WOLD | Conservative | +14.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +18.4 pts |
| 2019 | Saxilby | Conservative | +14.0 pts | -3.5 pts | +17.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hemswell | Liberal Democrats | +25.4 pts | +8.1 pts | +17.3 pts |
| 2019 | Scotter and Blyton | Liberal Democrats | +25.0 pts | +8.1 pts | +16.9 pts |
| 2019 | Bardney | Conservative | +12.9 pts | -3.5 pts | +16.5 pts |
| 2019 | Dunholme & Welton | Independent | +18.0 pts | +1.6 pts | +16.4 pts |
| 2019 | Dunholme & Welton | Liberal Democrats | -7.3 pts | +8.1 pts | -15.4 pts |
| 2019 | Saxilby | Liberal Democrats | -6.4 pts | +8.1 pts | -14.5 pts |
| 2019 | Gainsborough North | Conservative | -18.0 pts | -3.5 pts | -14.5 pts |
| 2019 | Caistor and Yarborough | Labour | +4.6 pts | -9.6 pts | +14.2 pts |
| 2019 | GAINSBOROUGH SOUTH WEST | Conservative | -17.6 pts | -3.5 pts | -14.0 pts |
| 2019 | GAINSBOROUGH EAST | Conservative | -16.4 pts | -3.5 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2019 | GAINSBOROUGH EAST | Labour | -22.3 pts | -9.6 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2019 | Cherry Willingham | Conservative | -15.3 pts | -3.5 pts | -11.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hemswell | Conservative | +7.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2019 | GAINSBOROUGH SOUTH WEST | Liberal Democrats | +19.1 pts | +8.1 pts | +11.0 pts |
| 2019 | Market Rasen | Liberal Democrats | +17.5 pts | +8.1 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Market Rasen | Labour | -0.6 pts | -9.6 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2019 | Lea | Conservative | +3.6 pts | -3.5 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Dunholme & Welton | Conservative | -10.7 pts | -3.5 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2019 | KELSEY WOLD | Liberal Democrats | +15.1 pts | +8.1 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2019 | Scotter and Blyton | Conservative | +0.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Nettleham | Liberal Democrats | +4.6 pts | +8.1 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Waddingham and Spital | Conservative | -6.9 pts | -3.5 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Gainsborough North | Liberal Democrats | +10.8 pts | +8.1 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | GAINSBOROUGH SOUTH WEST | Labour | -11.3 pts | -9.6 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Waddingham and Spital | Liberal Democrats | +6.9 pts | +8.1 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Gainsborough North | Labour | -10.8 pts | -9.6 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Nettleham | Conservative | -4.6 pts | -3.5 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | GAINSBOROUGH EAST | Liberal Democrats | +7.4 pts | +8.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Market Rasen | Conservative | -3.5 pts | -3.5 pts | -0.0 pts |