Woking: wards that bucked the trend
Woking: in 2024, 15 ward results beat the expected swing and 20 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Byfleet and West Byfleet (-58.7 pts actual vs -8.8 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Independent | -58.7 pts | -8.8 pts | -49.9 pts |
| 2024 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Conservative | +41.4 pts | +2.6 pts | +38.8 pts |
| 2024 | Canalside | Liberal Democrats | +18.8 pts | +4.6 pts | +14.2 pts |
| 2024 | Mount Hermon | Liberal Democrats | -8.4 pts | +4.6 pts | -13.0 pts |
| 2024 | Knaphill | Conservative | +14.3 pts | +2.6 pts | +11.7 pts |
| 2024 | Pyrford | Liberal Democrats | -7.0 pts | +4.6 pts | -11.6 pts |
| 2024 | Goldsworth Park | Conservative | -9.0 pts | +2.6 pts | -11.6 pts |
| 2024 | Canalside | Labour | -6.7 pts | +3.2 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2024 | Canalside | Conservative | -7.2 pts | +2.6 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2024 | Heathlands | Liberal Democrats | -4.2 pts | +4.6 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2024 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Labour | +11.4 pts | +3.2 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2024 | Horsell | Conservative | -4.5 pts | +2.6 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2024 | Heathlands | Conservative | -4.2 pts | +2.6 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2024 | Mount Hermon | Conservative | +9.1 pts | +2.6 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2024 | Goldsworth Park | Liberal Democrats | +11.1 pts | +4.6 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2024 | Pyrford | Conservative | +8.7 pts | +2.6 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2024 | St. Johns | Conservative | -3.4 pts | +2.6 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2024 | Hoe Valley | Labour | +9.0 pts | +3.2 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2024 | Hoe Valley | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | +4.6 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2024 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Liberal Democrats | +9.3 pts | +4.6 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2024 | Horsell | Green | -0.3 pts | -3.8 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Mount Hermon | Labour | -0.2 pts | +3.2 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Heathlands | Green | -0.4 pts | -3.8 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Hoe Valley | Conservative | -0.8 pts | +2.6 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2024 | Knaphill | Liberal Democrats | +7.6 pts | +4.6 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2024 | Horsell | Labour | +0.5 pts | +3.2 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2024 | St. Johns | Heritage Party | +2.5 pts | +0.1 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Pyrford | Labour | +2.9 pts | +0.7 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2024 | St. Johns | Liberal Democrats | +3.2 pts | +4.6 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2024 | Horsell | Liberal Democrats | +3.3 pts | +4.6 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2024 | Heathlands | Labour | +1.9 pts | +3.2 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2024 | Mount Hermon | Green | -2.6 pts | -3.8 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2024 | Heathlands | Heritage Party | -0.8 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2024 | St. Johns | Labour | +2.7 pts | +3.2 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Mount Hermon | Heritage Party | -0.3 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Knaphill | Independent | -22.3 pts | -1.7 pts | -20.7 pts |
| 2023 | Knaphill | Liberal Democrats | +22.4 pts | +2.7 pts | +19.7 pts |
| 2023 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Liberal Democrats | -10.4 pts | +2.7 pts | -13.1 pts |
| 2023 | Goldsworth Park | Liberal Democrats | -9.0 pts | +2.7 pts | -11.7 pts |
| 2023 | Heathlands | Green | -8.2 pts | +0.7 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2023 | Mount Hermon | Liberal Democrats | -5.7 pts | +2.7 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2023 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Independent | +6.3 pts | -1.7 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2023 | Canalside | Conservative | -13.6 pts | -6.1 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2023 | Mount Hermon | Conservative | -1.7 pts | -6.1 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2023 | St. Johns | Green | -3.1 pts | +0.7 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2023 | Heathlands | Liberal Democrats | +6.4 pts | +2.7 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2023 | Canalside | Liberal Democrats | +6.3 pts | +2.7 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2023 | Heathlands | Conservative | -2.4 pts | -6.1 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2023 | Canalside | Labour | -0.4 pts | +2.8 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2023 | Knaphill | Conservative | -9.1 pts | -6.1 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2023 | Hoe Valley | Labour | -0.2 pts | +2.8 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2023 | Pyrford | Liberal Democrats | +4.8 pts | +2.7 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2023 | Goldsworth Park | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -6.1 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2023 | St. Johns | Conservative | -7.6 pts | -6.1 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2023 | Hoe Valley | Conservative | -4.6 pts | -6.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2023 | Hoe Valley | Liberal Democrats | +4.0 pts | +2.7 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Horsell | Green | -0.6 pts | +0.7 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Mount Hermon | Green | -0.4 pts | +0.7 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Horsell | Liberal Democrats | +1.6 pts | +2.7 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2023 | St. Johns | Liberal Democrats | +3.4 pts | +2.7 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2023 | Horsell | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -6.1 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2023 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -6.1 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Pyrford | Conservative | -5.5 pts | -6.1 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Pyrford | Green | +0.8 pts | +0.7 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2023 | Hoe Valley | Green | +0.8 pts | +0.7 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2019 | Horsell | Conservative | +4.9 pts | -10.5 pts | +15.5 pts |
| 2019 | Horsell | Liberal Democrats | -17.3 pts | -2.1 pts | -15.3 pts |
| 2019 | Pyrford | Conservative | -21.6 pts | -10.5 pts | -11.0 pts |
| 2019 | Mount Hermon | Liberal Democrats | +7.9 pts | -2.1 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hoe Valley | Liberal Democrats | +7.7 pts | -2.1 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2019 | Canalside | Conservative | -2.7 pts | -10.5 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2019 | Knaphill | Independent | +14.9 pts | +7.5 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2019 | Knaphill | Conservative | -17.6 pts | -10.5 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2019 | Goldsworth Park | Liberal Democrats | +4.6 pts | -2.1 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2019 | St. Johns | Liberal Democrats | +4.4 pts | -2.1 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2019 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Conservative | -16.3 pts | -10.5 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Pyrford | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.0 pts | +4.1 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Independent | +12.5 pts | +7.5 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Pyrford | Liberal Democrats | -7.0 pts | -2.1 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hoe Valley | Conservative | -14.6 pts | -10.5 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Horsell | Labour | -1.9 pts | -5.7 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Canalside | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +7.6 pts | +4.1 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Goldsworth Park | Conservative | -7.2 pts | -10.5 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | -2.1 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Goldsworth Park | Labour | -9.0 pts | -5.7 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Canalside | Liberal Democrats | +1.1 pts | -2.1 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Mount Hermon | Conservative | -13.6 pts | -10.5 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Heathlands | Liberal Democrats | -5.0 pts | -2.1 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Pyrford | Labour | -3.0 pts | -5.7 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Hoe Valley | Labour | -3.9 pts | -5.7 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Canalside | Labour | -7.4 pts | -5.7 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Horsell | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +5.7 pts | +4.1 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Goldsworth Park | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +5.7 pts | +4.1 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Knaphill | Labour | -7.1 pts | -5.7 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2019 | St. Johns | Labour | -4.4 pts | -5.7 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | St. Johns | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +5.1 pts | +4.1 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Mount Hermon | Labour | -4.8 pts | -5.7 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Mount Hermon | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +3.5 pts | +4.1 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2019 | St. Johns | Conservative | -11.1 pts | -10.5 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Knaphill | Liberal Democrats | -2.5 pts | -2.1 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Heathlands | Conservative | -10.9 pts | -10.5 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hoe Valley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +4.0 pts | +4.1 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Horsell | Liberal Democrats | +27.5 pts | +4.8 pts | +22.7 pts |
| 2018 | Horsell | Conservative | -20.4 pts | -4.0 pts | -16.4 pts |
| 2018 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Liberal Democrats | -8.2 pts | +4.8 pts | -13.0 pts |
| 2018 | Hoe Valley | Conservative | +7.4 pts | -4.0 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2018 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Conservative | +7.1 pts | -4.0 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2018 | Knaphill | Conservative | -12.0 pts | -4.0 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2018 | Horsell | Labour | -1.9 pts | +5.4 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2018 | Hoe Valley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -10.7 pts | -3.5 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2018 | Goldsworth Park | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | +4.8 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2018 | Goldsworth Park | Conservative | +1.4 pts | -4.0 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2018 | Knaphill | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | +4.8 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2018 | Mount Hermon | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | +4.8 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2018 | Canalside | Conservative | +0.8 pts | -4.0 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2018 | Heathlands | Labour | +9.7 pts | +5.4 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Byfleet and West Byfleet | Independent | -3.4 pts | +0.7 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2018 | Pyrford | Labour | +1.5 pts | +5.4 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2018 | Knaphill | Labour | +9.2 pts | +5.4 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2018 | Hoe Valley | Labour | +1.8 pts | +5.4 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2018 | Hoe Valley | Liberal Democrats | +1.6 pts | +4.8 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2018 | St. Johns | Liberal Democrats | +1.9 pts | +4.8 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Canalside | Liberal Democrats | +2.2 pts | +4.8 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Mount Hermon | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.0 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2018 | Pyrford | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.2 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Heathlands | Conservative | -6.2 pts | -4.0 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Goldsworth Park | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.5 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Horsell | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.5 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Canalside | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.2 pts | -3.5 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Mount Hermon | Conservative | -5.7 pts | -4.0 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Canalside | Labour | +3.7 pts | +5.4 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | St. Johns | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.1 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2018 | St. Johns | Conservative | -5.1 pts | -4.0 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2018 | Pyrford | Conservative | -4.8 pts | -4.0 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2018 | Goldsworth Park | Labour | +5.0 pts | +5.4 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Heathlands | Liberal Democrats | +5.0 pts | +4.8 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Pyrford | Liberal Democrats | +4.5 pts | +4.8 pts | -0.2 pts |