York: wards that bucked the trend
York: in 2023, 53 ward results beat the expected swing and 27 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Fulford & Heslington (+29.6 pts actual vs -5.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Fulford & Heslington | Labour | +29.6 pts | -5.5 pts | +35.0 pts |
| 2023 | Fulford & Heslington | Liberal Democrats | -32.1 pts | -4.1 pts | -28.0 pts |
| 2023 | Micklegate | Labour | +21.2 pts | -5.5 pts | +26.7 pts |
| 2023 | Fishergate | Green | -30.5 pts | -6.5 pts | -24.0 pts |
| 2023 | Westfield | Labour | +18.4 pts | -5.5 pts | +23.9 pts |
| 2023 | Clifton | Labour | +16.8 pts | -5.5 pts | +22.3 pts |
| 2023 | Huntington & New Earswick | Labour | +15.5 pts | -5.5 pts | +21.0 pts |
| 2023 | Bishopthorpe | Liberal Democrats | +15.7 pts | -4.1 pts | +19.8 pts |
| 2023 | Heworth Without | Labour | +12.8 pts | -5.5 pts | +18.3 pts |
| 2023 | Copmanthorpe | Independent | -19.5 pts | -2.3 pts | -17.2 pts |
| 2023 | Osbaldwick & Derwent | Liberal Democrats | +12.3 pts | -4.1 pts | +16.4 pts |
| 2023 | Hull Road | Liberal Democrats | +12.0 pts | -4.1 pts | +16.1 pts |
| 2023 | Rawcliffe & Clifton Without | Labour | +9.8 pts | -5.5 pts | +15.3 pts |
| 2023 | Bishopthorpe | Conservative | +13.5 pts | -1.6 pts | +15.1 pts |
| 2023 | Haxby & Wigginton | Labour | +9.2 pts | -5.5 pts | +14.7 pts |
| 2023 | Wheldrake | Liberal Democrats | +9.0 pts | -4.1 pts | +13.1 pts |
| 2023 | Strensall | Liberal Democrats | +8.7 pts | -4.1 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2023 | Copmanthorpe | Conservative | +11.0 pts | -1.6 pts | +12.6 pts |
| 2023 | Copmanthorpe | Labour | +6.8 pts | -5.5 pts | +12.3 pts |
| 2023 | Dringhouses & Woodthorpe | Labour | +6.5 pts | -5.5 pts | +12.0 pts |
| 2023 | Osbaldwick & Derwent | Labour | +5.2 pts | -5.5 pts | +10.7 pts |
| 2023 | Westfield | Liberal Democrats | -14.3 pts | -4.1 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2023 | Heworth Without | Liberal Democrats | -13.9 pts | -4.1 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2023 | Rural West York | Labour | +4.3 pts | -5.5 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2023 | Huntington & New Earswick | Liberal Democrats | -13.6 pts | -4.1 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2023 | Bishopthorpe | Labour | +3.3 pts | -5.5 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2023 | Micklegate | Green | -15.3 pts | -6.5 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2023 | Copmanthorpe | Green | +1.8 pts | -6.5 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2023 | Haxby & Wigginton | Conservative | +5.6 pts | -1.6 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2023 | Bishopthorpe | Green | +0.6 pts | -6.5 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2023 | Strensall | Labour | +1.6 pts | -5.5 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2023 | Rural West York | Liberal Democrats | +3.0 pts | -4.1 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2023 | Clifton | Conservative | -8.5 pts | -1.6 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2023 | Guildhall | Green | -13.2 pts | -6.5 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2023 | Holgate | Green | -12.9 pts | -6.5 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2023 | Haxby & Wigginton | Green | -0.1 pts | -6.5 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2023 | Rawcliffe & Clifton Without | Conservative | -7.7 pts | -1.6 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2023 | Hull Road | Conservative | -7.7 pts | -1.6 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2023 | Wheldrake | Conservative | +4.2 pts | -1.6 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2023 | Fulford & Heslington | Conservative | +3.8 pts | -1.6 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2023 | Fulford & Heslington | Green | -1.3 pts | -6.5 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2023 | Haxby & Wigginton | Liberal Democrats | -9.2 pts | -4.1 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2023 | Huntington & New Earswick | Conservative | +3.4 pts | -1.6 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2023 | Clifton | Liberal Democrats | +0.8 pts | -4.1 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2023 | Heworth Without | Green | -1.7 pts | -6.5 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2023 | Clifton | Green | -11.3 pts | -6.5 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2023 | Dringhouses & Woodthorpe | Green | -1.8 pts | -6.5 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2023 | Heworth | Conservative | -6.1 pts | -1.6 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2023 | Osbaldwick & Derwent | Independent | -6.8 pts | -2.3 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2023 | Heworth Without | Conservative | +2.8 pts | -1.6 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2023 | Rawcliffe & Clifton Without | Green | -2.1 pts | -6.5 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2023 | Strensall | Conservative | -5.9 pts | -1.6 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2023 | Westfield | Green | -2.2 pts | -6.5 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2023 | Rural West York | Green | -2.3 pts | -6.5 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2023 | Dringhouses & Woodthorpe | Liberal Democrats | +0.0 pts | -4.1 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2023 | Copmanthorpe | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | -4.1 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2023 | Acomb | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -1.6 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2023 | Hull Road | Green | -9.9 pts | -6.5 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Rawcliffe & Clifton Without | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | -4.1 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Rural West York | Conservative | -5.0 pts | -1.6 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Holgate | Liberal Democrats | -7.4 pts | -4.1 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Haxby & Wigginton | Independent | -5.6 pts | -2.3 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2023 | Westfield | Conservative | +1.3 pts | -1.6 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2023 | Huntington & New Earswick | Green | -3.6 pts | -6.5 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2023 | Acomb | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | -4.1 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2023 | Dringhouses & Woodthorpe | Conservative | +0.8 pts | -1.6 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2023 | Osbaldwick & Derwent | Conservative | -4.0 pts | -1.6 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2023 | Heworth | Green | -4.3 pts | -6.5 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2023 | Strensall | Green | -4.3 pts | -6.5 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2023 | Acomb | Green | -4.4 pts | -6.5 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2023 | Wheldrake | Green | -4.5 pts | -6.5 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2023 | Micklegate | Conservative | -3.3 pts | -1.6 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2023 | Fishergate | Liberal Democrats | -2.6 pts | -4.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2023 | Guildhall | Liberal Democrats | -2.6 pts | -4.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Holgate | Conservative | -0.4 pts | -1.6 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2023 | Heworth | Liberal Democrats | -4.8 pts | -4.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2023 | Guildhall | Conservative | -2.0 pts | -1.6 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2023 | Micklegate | Liberal Democrats | -3.8 pts | -4.1 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Osbaldwick & Derwent | Green | -6.8 pts | -6.5 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Fishergate | Conservative | -1.4 pts | -1.6 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopthorpe | Green | +25.4 pts | +1.7 pts | +23.7 pts |
| 2019 | Rural West York | Liberal Democrats | +33.1 pts | +10.8 pts | +22.3 pts |
| 2019 | Wheldrake | Conservative | -35.0 pts | -13.0 pts | -22.0 pts |
| 2019 | Copmanthorpe | Conservative | -32.4 pts | -13.0 pts | -19.4 pts |
| 2019 | Copmanthorpe | Liberal Democrats | -8.2 pts | +10.8 pts | -19.0 pts |
| 2019 | Rawcliffe & Clifton Without | Liberal Democrats | +29.3 pts | +10.8 pts | +18.5 pts |
| 2019 | Clifton | Labour | +20.8 pts | +2.6 pts | +18.2 pts |
| 2019 | Haxby & Wigginton | Liberal Democrats | +28.5 pts | +10.8 pts | +17.7 pts |
| 2019 | Acomb | Liberal Democrats | -5.9 pts | +10.8 pts | -16.7 pts |
| 2019 | Osbaldwick & Derwent | Liberal Democrats | -5.0 pts | +10.8 pts | -15.7 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopthorpe | Conservative | -28.4 pts | -13.0 pts | -15.4 pts |
| 2019 | Micklegate | Labour | +17.6 pts | +2.6 pts | +15.0 pts |
| 2019 | Holgate | Labour | +16.9 pts | +2.6 pts | +14.3 pts |
| 2019 | Osbaldwick & Derwent | Independent | +13.2 pts | +0.2 pts | +13.0 pts |
| 2019 | Heworth Without | Liberal Democrats | +23.4 pts | +10.8 pts | +12.7 pts |
| 2019 | Guildhall | Liberal Democrats | -1.7 pts | +10.8 pts | -12.5 pts |
| 2019 | Haxby & Wigginton | Labour | -9.8 pts | +2.6 pts | -12.4 pts |
| 2019 | Wheldrake | Liberal Democrats | +23.1 pts | +10.8 pts | +12.4 pts |
| 2019 | Copmanthorpe | Labour | -9.7 pts | +2.6 pts | -12.3 pts |
| 2019 | Clifton | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | +10.8 pts | -11.7 pts |
| 2019 | Wheldrake | Labour | -8.7 pts | +2.6 pts | -11.3 pts |
| 2019 | Rawcliffe & Clifton Without | Labour | -8.6 pts | +2.6 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2019 | Guildhall | Green | +12.3 pts | +1.7 pts | +10.6 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopthorpe | Liberal Democrats | +0.2 pts | +10.8 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2019 | Fishergate | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | +10.8 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hull Road | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | +10.8 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2019 | Acomb | Labour | +13.0 pts | +2.6 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2019 | Clifton | Conservative | -3.2 pts | -13.0 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopthorpe | Independent | +9.6 pts | +0.2 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopthorpe | Labour | -6.7 pts | +2.6 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Micklegate | Liberal Democrats | +1.6 pts | +10.8 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2019 | Rural West York | Labour | -6.3 pts | +2.6 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2019 | Haxby & Wigginton | Conservative | -21.7 pts | -13.0 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2019 | Heworth Without | Labour | -6.0 pts | +2.6 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2019 | Strensall | Labour | -5.7 pts | +2.6 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Heworth | Liberal Democrats | +2.6 pts | +10.8 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hull Road | Labour | +9.8 pts | +2.6 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Holgate | Liberal Democrats | +3.6 pts | +10.8 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Heworth | Labour | +9.5 pts | +2.6 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2019 | Fishergate | Conservative | -6.4 pts | -13.0 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Fishergate | Green | +7.8 pts | +1.7 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2019 | Strensall | Liberal Democrats | +16.8 pts | +10.8 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2019 | Rawcliffe & Clifton Without | Conservative | -18.8 pts | -13.0 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Osbaldwick & Derwent | Green | +6.9 pts | +1.7 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Westfield | Green | -3.5 pts | +1.7 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Guildhall | Labour | +7.7 pts | +2.6 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Micklegate | Green | +6.6 pts | +1.7 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Guildhall | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -13.0 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Haxby & Wigginton | Independent | +5.1 pts | +0.2 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Heworth | Conservative | -8.5 pts | -13.0 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Huntington & New Earswick | Labour | -1.8 pts | +2.6 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Rural West York | Conservative | -17.3 pts | -13.0 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Micklegate | Conservative | -8.9 pts | -13.0 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Westfield | Conservative | -9.0 pts | -13.0 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Heworth | Green | -2.3 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Osbaldwick & Derwent | Labour | -1.3 pts | +2.6 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Haxby & Wigginton | Green | -2.0 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Dringhouses & Woodthorpe | Labour | -1.1 pts | +2.6 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Dringhouses & Woodthorpe | Liberal Democrats | +14.4 pts | +10.8 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Rawcliffe & Clifton Without | Green | -1.9 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Rural West York | Green | -1.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hull Road | Conservative | -10.2 pts | -13.0 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Copmanthorpe | Green | +4.2 pts | +1.7 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Westfield | Labour | +0.3 pts | +2.6 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Wheldrake | Green | -0.6 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Huntington & New Earswick | Green | -0.5 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Dringhouses & Woodthorpe | Green | -0.3 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Acomb | Conservative | -11.1 pts | -13.0 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Fulford & Heslington | Green | +0.0 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Holgate | Green | +3.3 pts | +1.7 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Fulford & Heslington | Liberal Democrats | +12.3 pts | +10.8 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Fulford & Heslington | Labour | +1.1 pts | +2.6 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Dringhouses & Woodthorpe | Conservative | -14.3 pts | -13.0 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Holgate | Conservative | -11.7 pts | -13.0 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Fishergate | Labour | +3.5 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Huntington & New Earswick | Conservative | -12.1 pts | -13.0 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Clifton | Green | +0.9 pts | +1.7 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Osbaldwick & Derwent | Conservative | -13.8 pts | -13.0 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Fulford & Heslington | Conservative | -13.5 pts | -13.0 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Westfield | Liberal Democrats | +10.3 pts | +10.8 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Acomb | Green | +2.1 pts | +1.7 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Huntington & New Earswick | Liberal Democrats | +11.2 pts | +10.8 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Dringhouses & Woodthorpe | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.6 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Strensall | Green | +1.9 pts | +1.7 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hull Road | Green | +1.8 pts | +1.7 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2019 | Heworth Without | Green | +1.6 pts | +1.7 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2019 | Heworth Without | Conservative | -13.0 pts | -13.0 pts | -0.0 pts |
| 2019 | Strensall | Conservative | -13.0 pts | -13.0 pts | +0.0 pts |