Psephology.AI

    Orpington: what the local elections say

    Adding up the most recent local election votes in Orpington (7 of 13 wards, 2026), Conservative leads on 43.1%, the same party that won the seat at the 2024 general election.

    Coverage: 54% of the constituency's wards have recent local results.

    Orpington: local election share vs 2024 general election
    PartyLocal election shareLocal votes2024 general election shareChange
    Conservative43.1%47,05138.0%+5.1 pts
    Reform UK27.4%29,67119.3%+8.1 pts
    Labour11.2%11,90026.9%-15.7 pts
    Liberal Democrats10.0%11,58210.3%-0.2 pts
    Green8.3%8,8675.0%+3.3 pts
    Chislehurst Matters0.0%00.0%—
    Social Democratic Party0.0%00.5%—