Local Election Proxy for Constituency Trends

A running read on every Westminster seat, between general elections. Across 650 Westminster constituencies, local election votes put Conservative ahead in 175, Labour ahead in 158, Reform UK ahead in 112, Liberal Democrats ahead in 88. In 338 seats the local-election leader differs from the 2024 general election winner.

Define the footprint: List every ward inside the seat, across all the councils involved, for the current boundary vintage.

Take the latest result per ward: Councils don't all go to the polls in the same year, so the contributing results will often span several years rather than one clean date.

Aggregate up: Combine the ward results into one implied party vote share for the whole seat.

Express it as a trend: Set the implied share against the seat's last general election result and show the movement by party.

Show the gaps honestly: Where part of the footprint hasn't voted recently, the seat is marked as partial coverage with an as-of date range, and never quietly averaged away.

Local-election read for every Westminster constituency
Constituency	Leading party in local elections	Local share	2024 general election winner
Aberafan Maesteg	Labour	59.0%	Labour
Aberdeen North	SNP	41.9%	SNP
Aberdeen South	SNP	33.1%	SNP
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East	Conservative	36.6%	SNP
Airdrie and Shotts	SNP	38.9%	Labour
Aldershot	Liberal Democrats	27.6%	Labour
Aldridge-Brownhills	Reform UK	37.2%	Conservative
Alloa and Grangemouth	SNP	41.3%	Labour
Altrincham and Sale West	Conservative	35.3%	Labour
Alyn and Deeside	Independent	50.3%	Labour
Amber Valley	Labour	40.5%	Labour
Angus and Perthshire Glens	SNP	38.7%	SNP
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry	SNP	35.2%	SNP
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber	SNP	31.7%	SNP
Arundel and South Downs	Green	37.7%	Conservative
Ashfield	Ashfield Independents	45.1%	Reform UK
Ashford	Conservative	34.2%	Labour
Ashton-under-Lyne	Reform UK	41.4%	Labour
Aylesbury	Liberal Democrats	28.5%	Labour
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Conservative	31.7%	Labour
Banbury	Conservative	26.0%	Labour
Bangor Aberconwy	Conservative	28.4%	Labour
Barking	Labour	34.3%	Labour
Barnsley North	Reform UK	40.7%	Labour
Barnsley South	Reform UK	45.1%	Labour
Barrow and Furness	Labour	42.9%	Labour
Basildon and Billericay	Reform UK	37.9%	Conservative
Basingstoke	Conservative	21.7%	Labour
Bassetlaw	Labour	58.4%	Labour
Bath	Liberal Democrats	49.0%	Liberal Democrats
Bathgate and Linlithgow	SNP	30.5%	Labour
Battersea	Labour	34.7%	Labour
Beaconsfield	Conservative	34.3%	Conservative
Beckenham and Penge	Conservative	30.0%	Labour
Bedford	Labour	36.4%	Labour
Belfast East	Green	0.0%	Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P.
Belfast North	Green	0.0%	Sinn Féin
Belfast South and Mid Down	Reform UK	51.3%	SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party)
Belfast West	Green	0.0%	Sinn Féin
Bermondsey and Old Southwark	Liberal Democrats	28.3%	Labour
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Conservative	31.4%	Conservative
Bethnal Green and Stepney	Aspire	35.6%	Labour
Beverley and Holderness	Conservative	40.0%	Conservative
Bexhill and Battle	Conservative	36.9%	Conservative
Bexleyheath and Crayford	Conservative	35.9%	Labour
Bicester and Woodstock	Liberal Democrats	33.3%	Liberal Democrats
Birkenhead	Green	41.4%	Labour
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley	Green	29.5%	Independent
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North	Reform UK	36.6%	Labour
Birmingham, Edgbaston	Labour	21.9%	Labour
Birmingham, Erdington	Reform UK	27.4%	Labour
Birmingham, Ladywood	Labour	31.7%	Labour
Birmingham, Northfield	Reform UK	33.5%	Labour
Birmingham, Perry Barr	Labour	22.8%	Independent
Birmingham, Selly Oak	Green	42.8%	Labour
Birmingham, Yardley	Liberal Democrats	33.8%	Labour
Bishop Auckland	Reform UK	49.1%	Labour
Blackburn	Independent	32.2%	Independent
Blackley and Middleton South	Reform UK	35.9%	Labour
Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Conservative	49.7%	Labour
Blackpool South	Labour	48.0%	Labour
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney	Labour	52.9%	Labour
Blaydon and Consett	Labour	37.1%	Labour
Blyth and Ashington	Reform UK	43.4%	Labour
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Conservative	38.4%	Conservative
Bolsover	Labour	49.2%	Labour
Bolton North East	Reform UK	37.4%	Labour
Bolton South and Walkden	Labour	30.0%	Labour
Bolton West	Reform UK	33.1%	Labour
Bootle	Labour	47.2%	Labour
Boston and Skegness	Conservative	32.3%	Reform UK
Bournemouth East	Conservative	27.7%	Labour
Bournemouth West	Liberal Democrats	33.4%	Labour
Bracknell	Conservative	43.9%	Labour
Bradford East	Labour	28.4%	Labour
Bradford South	Reform UK	34.6%	Labour
Bradford West	Labour	29.2%	Independent
Braintree	Conservative	42.4%	Conservative
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	Labour	32.6%	Liberal Democrats
Brent East	Labour	37.8%	Labour
Brent West	Conservative	27.7%	Labour
Brentford and Isleworth	Labour	33.0%	Labour
Brentwood and Ongar	Reform UK	39.2%	Conservative
Bridgend	Independent	40.5%	Labour
Bridgwater	Conservative	45.9%	Conservative
Bridlington and The Wolds	Conservative	36.0%	Conservative
Brigg and Immingham	Conservative	55.4%	Conservative
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven	Labour	53.5%	Labour
Brighton, Pavilion	Labour	38.9%	Green
Bristol Central	Green	58.7%	Green
Bristol East	Green	40.2%	Labour
Bristol North East	Labour	51.7%	Labour
Bristol North West	Labour	29.1%	Labour
Bristol South	Labour	33.6%	Labour
Broadland and Fakenham	Conservative	35.2%	Conservative
Bromley and Biggin Hill	Conservative	43.4%	Conservative
Bromsgrove	Conservative	39.2%	Conservative
Broxbourne	Conservative	39.0%	Conservative
Broxtowe	Labour	42.0%	Labour
Buckingham and Bletchley	Conservative	28.8%	Labour
Burnley	Reform UK	37.9%	Labour
Burton and Uttoxeter	Conservative	44.8%	Labour
Bury North	Reform UK	31.1%	Labour
Bury South	Reform UK	28.7%	Labour
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket	Conservative	38.1%	Labour
Caerfyrddin	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales	54.6%	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
Caerphilly	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales	44.4%	Labour
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	SNP	28.8%	Liberal Democrats
Calder Valley	Reform UK	36.9%	Labour
Camborne and Redruth	Reform UK	34.3%	Labour
Cambridge	Green	30.7%	Labour
Cannock Chase	Reform UK	54.0%	Labour
Canterbury	Labour	36.3%	Labour
Cardiff East	Labour	48.0%	Labour
Cardiff North	Labour	42.8%	Labour
Cardiff South and Penarth	Labour	48.1%	Labour
Cardiff West	Labour	45.0%	Labour
Carlisle	Conservative	35.7%	Labour
Carshalton and Wallington	Liberal Democrats	43.6%	Liberal Democrats
Castle Point	CIIP	20.0%	Conservative
Central Ayrshire	SNP	39.0%	Labour
Central Devon	Conservative	37.8%	Conservative
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich	Conservative	42.0%	Conservative
Ceredigion Preseli	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales	46.9%	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
Chatham and Aylesford	Conservative	44.6%	Labour
Cheadle	Liberal Democrats	43.3%	Liberal Democrats
Chelmsford	Liberal Democrats	50.1%	Liberal Democrats
Chelsea and Fulham	Conservative	45.3%	Labour
Cheltenham	Liberal Democrats	45.4%	Liberal Democrats
Chesham and Amersham	Liberal Democrats	38.8%	Liberal Democrats
Chester North and Neston	Labour	60.3%	Labour
Chester South and Eddisbury	Conservative	41.3%	Conservative
Chesterfield	Labour	46.8%	Labour
Chichester	Liberal Democrats	49.2%	Liberal Democrats
Chingford and Woodford Green	Conservative	38.1%	Conservative
Chippenham	Liberal Democrats	44.9%	Liberal Democrats
Chipping Barnet	Conservative	35.8%	Labour
Chorley	Reform UK	36.1%	Speaker seeking re-election
Christchurch	Christchurch Independents	35.3%	Conservative
Cities of London and Westminster	Conservative	43.0%	Labour
City of Durham	Reform UK	32.3%	Labour
Clacton	Conservative	35.7%	Reform UK
Clapham and Brixton Hill	Green	35.4%	Labour
Clwyd East	Independent	29.6%	Labour
Clwyd North	Conservative	35.4%	Labour
Coatbridge and Bellshill	SNP	45.0%	Labour
Colchester	Reform UK	28.6%	Labour
Colne Valley	Reform UK	25.9%	Labour
Congleton	Conservative	33.7%	Labour
Corby and East Northamptonshire	Reform UK	36.0%	Labour
Coventry East	Labour	35.0%	Labour
Coventry North West	Reform UK	33.2%	Labour
Coventry South	Labour	28.2%	Labour
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	SNP	38.4%	Labour
Cramlington and Killingworth	Reform UK	26.6%	Labour
Crawley	Reform UK	30.6%	Labour
Crewe and Nantwich	Labour	49.5%	Labour
Croydon East	Labour	27.4%	Labour
Croydon South	Conservative	43.0%	Conservative
Croydon West	Labour	36.6%	Labour
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	SNP	44.1%	Labour
Dagenham and Rainham	Reform UK	33.8%	Labour
Darlington	Labour	37.9%	Labour
Dartford	Conservative	53.5%	Labour
Daventry	Reform UK	32.0%	Conservative
Derby North	Labour	43.5%	Labour
Derby South	Labour	42.5%	Labour
Derbyshire Dales	Liberal Democrats	39.7%	Labour
Dewsbury and Batley	Independent	33.2%	Independent
Didcot and Wantage	Liberal Democrats	51.5%	Liberal Democrats
Doncaster Central	Reform UK	37.4%	Labour
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme	Labour	32.3%	Labour
Doncaster North	Reform UK	46.7%	Labour
Dorking and Horley	Liberal Democrats	43.9%	Liberal Democrats
Dover and Deal	Labour	45.0%	Labour
Droitwich and Evesham	Conservative	46.4%	Conservative
Dudley	Reform UK	52.8%	Labour
Dulwich and West Norwood	Green	41.4%	Labour
Dumfries and Galloway	Conservative	36.3%	Conservative
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	Conservative	37.1%	Conservative
Dundee Central	SNP	42.5%	SNP
Dunfermline and Dollar	SNP	34.6%	Labour
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard	Liberal Democrats	38.6%	Labour
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales	52.8%	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
Ealing Central and Acton	Liberal Democrats	26.9%	Labour
Ealing North	Labour	35.0%	Labour
Ealing, Southall	Labour	33.2%	Labour
Earley and Woodley	Conservative	28.9%	Labour
Easington	Reform UK	47.1%	Labour
East Antrim	Labour	73.9%	Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P.
East Grinstead and Uckfield	Conservative	36.5%	Conservative
East Ham	Newham Independents Party	32.1%	Labour
East Hampshire	Conservative	40.5%	Conservative
East Kilbride and Strathaven	SNP	38.1%	Labour
East Londonderry	Conservative	0.0%	Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P.
East Renfrewshire	Conservative	29.5%	Labour
East Surrey	Conservative	22.9%	Conservative
East Thanet	Labour	44.9%	Labour
East Wiltshire	Conservative	35.4%	Conservative
East Worthing and Shoreham	Reform UK	28.5%	Labour
Eastbourne	Liberal Democrats	45.1%	Liberal Democrats
Eastleigh	Liberal Democrats	46.9%	Liberal Democrats
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	SNP	37.1%	Labour
Edinburgh North and Leith	SNP	29.8%	Labour
Edinburgh South	Labour	28.8%	Labour
Edinburgh South West	Conservative	26.6%	Labour
Edinburgh West	Liberal Democrats	42.0%	Liberal Democrats
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill	Conservative	30.3%	Labour
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough	Labour	51.6%	Labour
Eltham and Chislehurst	Conservative	24.9%	Labour
Ely and East Cambridgeshire	Liberal Democrats	39.9%	Liberal Democrats
Enfield North	Conservative	37.2%	Labour
Epping Forest	Reform UK	36.8%	Conservative
Epsom and Ewell	Residents Associations of Epsom and Ewell	27.8%	Liberal Democrats
Erewash	Labour	45.8%	Labour
Erith and Thamesmead	Labour	38.3%	Labour
Esher and Walton	Liberal Democrats	42.1%	Liberal Democrats
Exeter	Green	42.4%	Labour
Exmouth and Exeter East	Liberal Democrats	33.6%	Conservative
Falkirk	SNP	42.3%	Labour
Fareham and Waterlooville	Reform UK	33.7%	Conservative
Farnham and Bordon	Conservative	34.8%	Conservative
Faversham and Mid Kent	Conservative	32.4%	Conservative
Feltham and Heston	Labour	31.5%	Labour
Fermanagh and South Tyrone	Ulster Unionist Party	0.0%	Sinn Féin
Filton and Bradley Stoke	Conservative	38.6%	Labour
Finchley and Golders Green	Conservative	34.7%	Labour
Folkestone and Hythe	Green	30.3%	Labour
Forest of Dean	Green	31.0%	Labour
Foyle	Ulster Unionist Party	0.0%	SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party)
Frome and East Somerset	Liberal Democrats	32.5%	Liberal Democrats
Fylde	Conservative	46.8%	Conservative
Gainsborough	Liberal Democrats	50.0%	Conservative
Gateshead Central and Whickham	Reform UK	31.1%	Labour
Gedling	Labour	56.3%	Labour
Gillingham and Rainham	Labour	52.3%	Labour
Glasgow East	Labour	38.2%	Labour
Glasgow North	Labour	32.7%	Labour
Glasgow North East	Labour	39.3%	Labour
Glasgow South	SNP	30.5%	Labour
Glasgow South West	Labour	39.8%	Labour
Glasgow West	Labour	34.9%	Labour
Glastonbury and Somerton	Liberal Democrats	49.1%	Liberal Democrats
Glenrothes and Mid Fife	SNP	46.5%	Labour
Gloucester	Labour	29.6%	Labour
Godalming and Ash	Conservative	42.5%	Conservative
Goole and Pocklington	Conservative	37.3%	Conservative
Gordon and Buchan	Conservative	34.7%	Conservative
Gorton and Denton	Green	41.5%	Labour
Gosport	Conservative	33.3%	Conservative
Gower	Labour	53.0%	Labour
Grantham and Bourne	Conservative	35.7%	Conservative
Gravesham	Conservative	48.4%	Labour
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes	Reform UK	46.7%	Labour
Great Yarmouth	Labour	45.3%	Reform UK
Greenwich and Woolwich	Green	33.6%	Labour
Guildford	Liberal Democrats	27.6%	Liberal Democrats
Hackney North and Stoke Newington	Green	45.5%	Labour
Hackney South and Shoreditch	Labour	40.7%	Labour
Halesowen	Reform UK	41.9%	Labour
Halifax	Reform UK	38.0%	Labour
Hamble Valley	Liberal Democrats	32.9%	Conservative
Hamilton and Clyde Valley	SNP	38.1%	Labour
Hammersmith and Chiswick	Labour	36.9%	Labour
Hampstead and Highgate	Labour	26.9%	Labour
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	Liberal Democrats	44.1%	Conservative
Harlow	Conservative	53.1%	Labour
Harpenden and Berkhamsted	Liberal Democrats	53.1%	Liberal Democrats
Harrogate and Knaresborough	Conservative	41.1%	Liberal Democrats
Harrow East	Conservative	58.3%	Conservative
Harrow West	Conservative	31.5%	Labour
Hartlepool	Reform UK	50.1%	Labour
Harwich and North Essex	Conservative	26.4%	Conservative
Hastings and Rye	Green	28.1%	Labour
Havant	Reform UK	39.7%	Conservative
Hayes and Harlington	Labour	33.1%	Labour
Hazel Grove	Liberal Democrats	40.9%	Liberal Democrats
Hemel Hempstead	Liberal Democrats	38.2%	Labour
Hendon	Conservative	34.1%	Labour
Henley and Thame	Conservative	29.3%	Liberal Democrats
Hereford and South Herefordshire	Liberal Democrats	30.6%	Conservative
Herne Bay and Sandwich	Conservative	41.1%	Conservative
Hertford and Stortford	Conservative	33.1%	Labour
Hertsmere	Conservative	42.9%	Conservative
Hexham	Conservative	30.9%	Labour
Heywood and Middleton North	Reform UK	41.5%	Labour
High Peak	Labour	48.8%	Labour
Hinckley and Bosworth	Liberal Democrats	52.2%	Conservative
Hitchin	Labour	40.2%	Labour
Holborn and St Pancras	Labour	39.6%	Labour
Honiton and Sidmouth	Conservative	34.2%	Liberal Democrats
Hornchurch and Upminster	Reform UK	39.3%	Conservative
Hornsey and Friern Barnet	Green	33.1%	Labour
Horsham	Liberal Democrats	46.9%	Liberal Democrats
Houghton and Sunderland South	Labour	34.6%	Labour
Hove and Portslade	Labour	50.3%	Labour
Huddersfield	Reform UK	30.4%	Labour
Huntingdon	Liberal Democrats	29.1%	Conservative
Hyndburn	Labour	37.0%	Labour
Ilford North	Labour	36.8%	Labour
Ilford South	Labour	31.8%	Labour
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West	SNP	37.9%	Labour
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	SNP	35.2%	Liberal Democrats
Ipswich	Labour	29.3%	Labour
Isle of Wight East	Reform UK	34.1%	Conservative
Isle of Wight West	Reform UK	30.8%	Labour
Islington North	Green	41.4%	Independent
Islington South and Finsbury	Labour	40.3%	Labour
Jarrow and Gateshead East	Reform UK	42.5%	Labour
Keighley and Ilkley	Conservative	26.8%	Conservative
Kenilworth and Southam	Conservative	35.2%	Conservative
Kensington and Bayswater	Conservative	44.9%	Labour
Kettering	Reform UK	31.3%	Labour
Kilmarnock and Loudoun	SNP	39.7%	Labour
Kingston and Surbiton	Liberal Democrats	46.1%	Liberal Democrats
Kingston upon Hull East	Liberal Democrats	44.7%	Labour
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham	Labour	41.0%	Labour
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	Liberal Democrats	38.5%	Labour
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire	Conservative	48.7%	Conservative
Knowsley	Labour	34.0%	Labour
Lagan Valley	Green	0.0%	Alliance - Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
Lancaster and Wyre	Green	36.9%	Labour
Leeds Central and Headingley	Green	47.3%	Labour
Leeds East	Reform UK	31.7%	Labour
Leeds North East	Green	31.4%	Labour
Leeds North West	Conservative	24.9%	Labour
Leeds South	Green	30.9%	Labour
Leeds South West and Morley	Reform UK	35.8%	Labour
Leeds West and Pudsey	Labour	30.9%	Labour
Leicester East	Conservative	45.9%	Conservative
Leicester South	Labour	48.9%	Independent
Leicester West	Labour	43.6%	Labour
Leigh and Atherton	Reform UK	46.7%	Labour
Lewes	Liberal Democrats	33.1%	Liberal Democrats
Lewisham East	Labour	35.4%	Labour
Lewisham North	Green	49.5%	Labour
Lewisham West and East Dulwich	Green	44.6%	Labour
Leyton and Wanstead	Green	40.5%	Labour
Lichfield	Conservative	42.3%	Labour
Lincoln	Labour	26.5%	Labour
Liverpool Garston	Labour	41.7%	Labour
Liverpool, Riverside	Labour	66.0%	Labour
Liverpool, Walton	Labour	69.5%	Labour
Liverpool, Wavertree	Labour	53.6%	Labour
Liverpool, West Derby	Labour	55.4%	Labour
Livingston	SNP	41.8%	Labour
Llanelli	Labour	42.2%	Labour
Lothian East	Labour	33.0%	Labour
Loughborough	Labour	53.1%	Labour
Louth and Horncastle	Conservative	38.4%	Conservative
Lowestoft	Labour	35.6%	Labour
Luton North	Labour	49.1%	Labour
Luton South and South Bedfordshire	Labour	47.4%	Labour
Macclesfield	Labour	39.2%	Labour
Maidenhead	Conservative	42.8%	Liberal Democrats
Maidstone and Malling	Conservative	33.3%	Conservative
Makerfield	Reform UK	49.4%	Labour
Maldon	Conservative	41.9%	Conservative
Manchester Central	Green	33.0%	Labour
Manchester Rusholme	Green	51.1%	Labour
Manchester, Withington	Green	37.3%	Labour
Mansfield	Labour	43.6%	Labour
Melksham and Devizes	Liberal Democrats	37.7%	Liberal Democrats
Melton and Syston	Conservative	43.6%	Conservative
Meriden and Solihull East	Conservative	40.6%	Conservative
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare	Labour	53.6%	Labour
Mid and South Pembrokeshire	Independent	42.6%	Labour
Mid Bedfordshire	Conservative	32.4%	Conservative
Mid Buckinghamshire	Conservative	33.2%	Conservative
Mid Cheshire	Labour	36.0%	Labour
Mid Derbyshire	Conservative	42.8%	Labour
Mid Dorset and North Poole	Liberal Democrats	62.0%	Liberal Democrats
Mid Dunbartonshire	SNP	28.5%	Liberal Democrats
Mid Leicestershire	Conservative	46.9%	Conservative
Mid Norfolk	Conservative	46.5%	Conservative
Mid Sussex	Liberal Democrats	45.4%	Liberal Democrats
Mid Ulster	Ulster Unionist Party	0.0%	Sinn Féin
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East	Labour	54.9%	Labour
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland	Independent	31.8%	Labour
Midlothian	SNP	37.6%	Labour
Milton Keynes Central	Labour	33.8%	Labour
Milton Keynes North	Labour	24.5%	Labour
Mitcham and Morden	Labour	44.0%	Labour
Monmouthshire	Conservative	40.5%	Labour
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr	Independent	35.9%	Labour
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	SNP	31.5%	SNP
Morecambe and Lunesdale	Labour	25.5%	Labour
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke	SNP	38.6%	Labour
Na h-Eileanan an Iar	Independent	80.0%	Labour
Neath and Swansea East	Labour	51.6%	Labour
New Forest East	Conservative	40.9%	Conservative
New Forest West	Conservative	43.4%	Conservative
Newark	Conservative	43.1%	Conservative
Newbury	Liberal Democrats	54.4%	Liberal Democrats
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West	Green	28.6%	Labour
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend	Green	44.8%	Labour
Newcastle upon Tyne North	Liberal Democrats	38.0%	Labour
Newcastle-under-Lyme	Reform UK	36.9%	Labour
Newport East	Labour	47.9%	Labour
Newport West and Islwyn	Labour	47.4%	Labour
Newry and Armagh	Conservative	0.0%	Sinn Féin
Newton Abbot	Liberal Democrats	38.6%	Liberal Democrats
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor	Reform UK	39.2%	Labour
Normanton and Hemsworth	Reform UK	48.2%	Labour
North Antrim	Ulster Unionist Party	0.0%	Traditional Unionist Voice - TUV
North Ayrshire and Arran	SNP	34.7%	Labour
North Bedfordshire	Independent	35.2%	Conservative
North Cornwall	Liberal Democrats	41.9%	Liberal Democrats
North Cotswolds	Conservative	38.7%	Conservative
North Devon	Liberal Democrats	38.7%	Liberal Democrats
North Dorset	Liberal Democrats	46.2%	Conservative
North Down	Green	0.0%	Independent
North Durham	Reform UK	43.6%	Labour
North East Cambridgeshire	Conservative	57.2%	Conservative
North East Derbyshire	Labour	40.4%	Labour
North East Fife	Liberal Democrats	42.5%	Liberal Democrats
North East Hampshire	Conservative	26.8%	Liberal Democrats
North East Hertfordshire	Conservative	34.4%	Labour
North East Somerset and Hanham	Conservative	37.2%	Labour
North Herefordshire	Conservative	40.0%	Green
North Norfolk	Liberal Democrats	50.4%	Liberal Democrats
North Northumberland	Conservative	31.5%	Labour
North Shropshire	Liberal Democrats	36.9%	Liberal Democrats
North Somerset	Conservative	34.7%	Labour
North Warwickshire and Bedworth	Conservative	50.2%	Labour
North West Cambridgeshire	Conservative	28.4%	Labour
North West Essex	Conservative	29.4%	Conservative
North West Hampshire	Conservative	37.1%	Conservative
North West Leicestershire	Labour	36.6%	Labour
North West Norfolk	Conservative	39.2%	Conservative
Northampton North	Reform UK	34.5%	Labour
Northampton South	Reform UK	35.9%	Labour
Norwich North	Conservative	38.8%	Labour
Norwich South	Green	32.5%	Labour
Nottingham East	Labour	64.9%	Labour
Nottingham North and Kimberley	Labour	61.5%	Labour
Nottingham South	Labour	53.9%	Labour
Nuneaton	Reform UK	36.7%	Labour
Old Bexley and Sidcup	Conservative	42.7%	Conservative
Oldham East and Saddleworth	Reform UK	32.6%	Labour
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton	Reform UK	39.6%	Labour
Orkney and Shetland	Independent	85.4%	Liberal Democrats
Orpington	Conservative	43.1%	Conservative
Ossett and Denby Dale	Reform UK	37.3%	Labour
Oxford East	Labour	31.7%	Labour
Oxford West and Abingdon	Liberal Democrats	50.8%	Liberal Democrats
Paisley and Renfrewshire North	SNP	41.2%	Labour
Paisley and Renfrewshire South	SNP	38.0%	Labour
Peckham	Green	42.4%	Labour
Pendle and Clitheroe	Conservative	28.5%	Labour
Penistone and Stocksbridge	Reform UK	35.0%	Labour
Penrith and Solway	Conservative	29.9%	Labour
Perth and Kinross-shire	SNP	36.3%	SNP
Peterborough	Conservative	29.7%	Labour
Plymouth, Moor View	Reform UK	38.5%	Labour
Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport	Reform UK	30.9%	Labour
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley	Reform UK	49.4%	Labour
Pontypridd	Labour	56.7%	Labour
Poole	Liberal Democrats	33.6%	Labour
Poplar and Limehouse	Aspire	24.5%	Labour
Portsmouth North	Reform UK	37.2%	Labour
Portsmouth South	Liberal Democrats	38.7%	Labour
Preston	Reform UK	26.6%	Labour
Putney	Conservative	32.2%	Labour
Queen's Park and Maida Vale	Labour	36.5%	Labour
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough	Labour	55.4%	Labour
Rayleigh and Wickford	Reform UK	42.6%	Conservative
Reading Central	Green	30.6%	Labour
Reading West and Mid Berkshire	Conservative	36.7%	Labour
Redcar	Labour	34.8%	Labour
Redditch	Reform UK	36.2%	Labour
Reigate	Conservative	28.8%	Conservative
Rhondda and Ogmore	Labour	59.6%	Labour
Ribble Valley	Labour	43.5%	Labour
Richmond and Northallerton	Conservative	46.9%	Conservative
Richmond Park	Liberal Democrats	47.0%	Liberal Democrats
Rochdale	Reform UK	27.6%	Labour
Rochester and Strood	Labour	41.3%	Labour
Romford	Reform UK	39.6%	Conservative
Romsey and Southampton North	Liberal Democrats	47.7%	Conservative
Rossendale and Darwen	Labour	42.1%	Labour
Rother Valley	Labour	36.4%	Labour
Rotherham	Labour	47.3%	Labour
Rugby	Reform UK	29.0%	Labour
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner	Conservative	55.3%	Conservative
Runcorn and Helsby	Labour	32.1%	Labour
Runnymede and Weybridge	Conservative	38.5%	Conservative
Rushcliffe	Conservative	40.5%	Labour
Rutherglen	SNP	37.4%	Labour
Rutland and Stamford	Liberal Democrats	38.5%	Conservative
Salford	Reform UK	29.7%	Labour
Salisbury	Conservative	36.1%	Conservative
Scarborough and Whitby	Labour	33.8%	Labour
Scunthorpe	Labour	56.4%	Labour
Sefton Central	Labour	32.8%	Labour
Selby	Labour	44.9%	Labour
Sevenoaks	Conservative	51.1%	Conservative
Sheffield Central	Green	59.0%	Labour
Sheffield South East	Reform UK	39.0%	Labour
Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough	Reform UK	32.9%	Labour
Sheffield, Hallam	Liberal Democrats	33.1%	Labour
Sheffield, Heeley	Green	32.4%	Labour
Sherwood Forest	Conservative	35.9%	Labour
Shipley	Green	29.4%	Labour
Shrewsbury	Liberal Democrats	36.3%	Labour
Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Labour	32.8%	Labour
Skipton and Ripon	Conservative	37.5%	Conservative
Sleaford and North Hykeham	Conservative	45.8%	Conservative
Slough	Conservative	46.5%	Labour
Smethwick	Labour	39.5%	Labour
Solihull West and Shirley	Conservative	28.4%	Conservative
South Antrim	Green	0.0%	Ulster Unionist Party
South Basildon and East Thurrock	Reform UK	51.6%	Reform UK
South Cambridgeshire	Liberal Democrats	41.4%	Liberal Democrats
South Cotswolds	Liberal Democrats	49.8%	Liberal Democrats
South Derbyshire	Labour	53.3%	Labour
South Devon	Conservative	34.7%	Liberal Democrats
South Dorset	Green	25.8%	Labour
South Down	Conservative	0.0%	Sinn Féin
South East Cornwall	Reform UK	32.5%	Labour
South Holland and The Deepings	Conservative	40.2%	Conservative
South Leicestershire	Conservative	40.9%	Conservative
South Norfolk	Conservative	39.0%	Labour
South Northamptonshire	Reform UK	29.8%	Conservative
South Ribble	Conservative	34.4%	Labour
South Shields	Reform UK	39.2%	Labour
South Shropshire	Reform UK	30.3%	Conservative
South Suffolk	Green	32.0%	Conservative
South West Devon	Liberal Democrats	33.2%	Conservative
South West Hertfordshire	Conservative	34.6%	Conservative
South West Norfolk	Conservative	45.1%	Labour
South West Wiltshire	Conservative	26.5%	Conservative
Southampton, Itchen	Reform UK	30.9%	Labour
Southampton, Test	Reform UK	26.6%	Labour
Southend East and Rochford	Reform UK	34.6%	Labour
Southend West and Leigh	Reform UK	31.5%	Labour
Southgate and Wood Green	Green	32.2%	Labour
Southport	Liberal Democrats	32.9%	Labour
Spelthorne	Conservative	38.4%	Conservative
Spen Valley	Reform UK	38.3%	Labour
St Albans	Liberal Democrats	46.5%	Liberal Democrats
St Austell and Newquay	Reform UK	34.1%	Labour
St Helens North	Reform UK	42.8%	Labour
St Helens South and Whiston	Reform UK	35.7%	Labour
St Ives	Liberal Democrats	30.8%	Liberal Democrats
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire	Liberal Democrats	37.9%	Liberal Democrats
Stafford	Conservative	38.0%	Labour
Staffordshire Moorlands	Labour	44.0%	Conservative
Stalybridge and Hyde	Reform UK	40.3%	Labour
Stevenage	Reform UK	25.1%	Labour
Stirling and Strathallan	SNP	33.3%	Labour
Stockport	Green	27.7%	Labour
Stockton North	Labour	51.2%	Labour
Stockton West	Conservative	48.3%	Conservative
Stoke-on-Trent Central	Labour	54.1%	Labour
Stoke-on-Trent North	Labour	36.9%	Labour
Stoke-on-Trent South	Conservative	51.9%	Labour
Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge	Conservative	38.3%	Conservative
Stourbridge	Reform UK	34.2%	Labour
Strangford	Conservative	0.0%	Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P.
Stratford and Bow	Green	37.5%	Labour
Stratford-on-Avon	Liberal Democrats	41.2%	Liberal Democrats
Streatham and Croydon North	Green	34.4%	Labour
Stretford and Urmston	Labour	31.3%	Labour
Stroud	Labour	35.9%	Labour
Suffolk Coastal	Conservative	37.5%	Labour
Sunderland Central	Reform UK	28.7%	Labour
Surrey Heath	Liberal Democrats	48.6%	Liberal Democrats
Sussex Weald	Conservative	36.7%	Conservative
Sutton and Cheam	Liberal Democrats	45.3%	Liberal Democrats
Sutton Coldfield	Conservative	40.0%	Conservative
Swansea West	Labour	57.4%	Labour
Swindon North	Conservative	29.5%	Labour
Swindon South	Labour	47.6%	Labour
Tamworth	Reform UK	36.8%	Labour
Tatton	Conservative	39.2%	Conservative
Taunton and Wellington	Liberal Democrats	51.5%	Liberal Democrats
Telford	Labour	61.7%	Labour
Tewkesbury	Liberal Democrats	38.6%	Liberal Democrats
The Wrekin	Labour	43.3%	Conservative
Thirsk and Malton	Conservative	46.7%	Conservative
Thornbury and Yate	Liberal Democrats	61.7%	Liberal Democrats
Thurrock	Reform UK	43.9%	Labour
Tipton and Wednesbury	Reform UK	41.3%	Labour
Tiverton and Minehead	Conservative	36.6%	Liberal Democrats
Tonbridge	Conservative	40.8%	Conservative
Tooting	Labour	39.4%	Labour
Torbay	Conservative	43.5%	Liberal Democrats
Torfaen	Labour	56.4%	Labour
Torridge and Tavistock	Independent	32.5%	Conservative
Tottenham	Labour	39.0%	Labour
Truro and Falmouth	Reform UK	23.5%	Labour
Tunbridge Wells	Liberal Democrats	39.9%	Liberal Democrats
Twickenham	Liberal Democrats	54.2%	Liberal Democrats
Tynemouth	Labour	26.9%	Labour
Upper Bann	Ulster Unionist Party	0.0%	Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip	Conservative	45.3%	Labour
Vale of Glamorgan	Labour	30.9%	Labour
Vauxhall and Camberwell Green	Labour	40.0%	Labour
Wakefield and Rothwell	Reform UK	38.7%	Labour
Wallasey	Labour	55.6%	Labour
Walsall and Bloxwich	Reform UK	26.2%	Labour
Walthamstow	Green	39.9%	Labour
Warrington North	Labour	65.8%	Labour
Warrington South	Labour	34.4%	Labour
Warwick and Leamington	Liberal Democrats	25.5%	Labour
Washington and Gateshead South	Reform UK	38.9%	Labour
Watford	Liberal Democrats	51.6%	Labour
Waveney Valley	Green	40.1%	Green
Weald of Kent	Conservative	39.7%	Conservative
Wellingborough and Rushden	Reform UK	37.5%	Labour
Wells and Mendip Hills	Liberal Democrats	41.6%	Liberal Democrats
Welwyn Hatfield	Reform UK	27.3%	Labour
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	Conservative	32.9%	Conservative
West Bromwich	Labour	40.8%	Labour
West Dorset	Liberal Democrats	41.4%	Liberal Democrats
West Dunbartonshire	SNP	42.5%	Labour
West Ham and Beckton	Labour	29.2%	Labour
West Lancashire	Reform UK	32.6%	Labour
West Suffolk	Conservative	43.9%	Conservative
West Tyrone	Conservative	0.0%	Sinn Féin
West Worcestershire	Conservative	28.9%	Conservative
Westmorland and Lonsdale	Liberal Democrats	62.1%	Liberal Democrats
Weston-Super-Mare	Labour	34.0%	Labour
Wetherby and Easingwold	Conservative	44.0%	Conservative
Whitehaven and Workington	Labour	50.7%	Labour
Widnes and Halewood	Reform UK	40.0%	Labour
Wigan	Reform UK	45.9%	Labour
Wimbledon	Liberal Democrats	44.1%	Liberal Democrats
Winchester	Liberal Democrats	42.8%	Liberal Democrats
Windsor	Conservative	32.5%	Conservative
Wirral West	Conservative	40.3%	Labour
Witham	Conservative	39.7%	Conservative
Witney	Conservative	34.1%	Liberal Democrats
Woking	Liberal Democrats	55.3%	Liberal Democrats
Wokingham	Liberal Democrats	38.5%	Liberal Democrats
Wolverhampton North East	Reform UK	44.0%	Labour
Wolverhampton South East	Reform UK	39.6%	Labour
Wolverhampton West	Labour	27.9%	Labour
Worcester	Labour	29.2%	Labour
Worsley and Eccles	Reform UK	41.5%	Labour
Worthing West	Conservative	42.9%	Labour
Wrexham	Independent	32.8%	Labour
Wycombe	Conservative	27.9%	Labour
Wyre Forest	Conservative	41.5%	Conservative
Wythenshawe and Sale East	Labour	31.8%	Labour
Yeovil	Liberal Democrats	45.4%	Liberal Democrats
Ynys Môn	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales	43.1%	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
York Central	Labour	60.2%	Labour
York Outer	Liberal Democrats	51.1%	Labour

All insights

Insight 1

Local Election Proxy for Constituency Trends

A running read on every Westminster seat, between general elections.

Live for 650 constituencies

Between 2024 and 2029 there is no new Westminster data, but dozens of local rounds happen in the meantime. This turns them into a seat-shaped answer nobody else publishes.

Live constituency read

Local results compared with the 2024 general election

Choose the angle that suits your question. Everything below is built from this report, not from the wider data explorers.

“How has my seat moved since the general election?”

650 constituencies

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Updated 14 Oct 2026

Medium confidence

91% coverage

PartyGE 2024ProxySwing

Independent10.1%80.0%+69.8pp

SNP21.1%17.7%−3.4pp

Conservative4.8%2.3%−2.5pp

Scottish Family Party2.9%0.0%n/a

Labour49.5%0.0%n/a

Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship"3.7%0.0%n/a

Scottish Green Party0.0%0.0%n/a

Reform UK5.2%0.0%n/a

Alba0.0%0.0%n/a

Liberal Democrats2.8%0.0%n/a

10 of 11 wards (91%), local results from 5 May 2022 to 4 Jul 2024.

This is a projection based on recent local election results, not a prediction. Local and general elections can diverge sharply.

Alyn and Deeside

Updated 14 Oct 2026

Medium confidence

100% coverage

PartyGE 2024ProxySwing

Independent3.6%50.3%+46.7pp

Labour42.4%44.5%+2.1pp

Conservative18.2%3.5%−14.7pp

Liberal Democrats4.8%1.2%−3.5pp

Green4.4%0.3%−4.1pp

REF0.0%0.1%n/a

Reform UK22.1%0.0%n/a

Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales4.5%0.0%n/a

27 of 27 wards (100%), local results from 5 May 2022 to 9 Jul 2026.

This is a projection based on recent local election results, not a prediction. Local and general elections can diverge sharply.

Islington North

Updated 14 Oct 2026

Low confidence

62% coverage

PartyGE 2024ProxySwing

Green5.4%41.4%+36.0pp

Labour34.4%37.0%+2.6pp

Liberal Democrats3.4%6.1%+2.7pp

Conservative4.0%5.2%+1.2pp

Reform UK3.5%5.2%+1.7pp

Independent49.3%3.1%−46.2pp

Islington Community Independents0.0%1.9%n/a

Christian Peoples Alliance0.0%0.1%n/a

8 of 13 wards (62%), local results from 7 May 2026 to 7 May 2026.

This calculation covers only part of the constituency footprint.

This is a projection based on recent local election results, not a prediction. Local and general elections can diverge sharply.

Clacton

Updated 14 Oct 2026

Medium confidence

100% coverage

PartyGE 2024ProxySwing

Conservative27.9%35.7%+7.8pp

Independent0.7%28.6%+27.9pp

Labour16.2%18.7%+2.5pp

Tendring First0.0%5.4%n/a

Liberal Democrats4.4%3.9%−0.5pp

Green4.2%3.3%−1.0pp

SLD0.0%2.2%n/a

Reform UK46.2%1.6%−44.6pp

REF0.0%0.4%n/a

UK Independence Party (UKIP)0.3%0.3%+0.1pp

Climate Party0.1%0.0%n/a

Heritage Party0.1%0.0%n/a

21 of 21 wards (100%), local results from 5 May 1988 to 5 Jun 2025.

This is a projection based on recent local election results, not a prediction. Local and general elections can diverge sharply.

Mid and South Pembrokeshire

Updated 14 Oct 2026

Low confidence

69% coverage

PartyGE 2024ProxySwing

Independent0.9%42.6%+41.7pp

Conservative31.4%20.4%−10.9pp

Labour35.4%16.5%−18.9pp

ND0.0%9.7%+9.7pp

Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales6.4%5.7%−0.6pp

Liberal Democrats5.1%4.0%−1.0pp

Green3.5%0.9%−2.6pp

PROP0.0%0.1%+0.1pp

Women`s Equality Party0.5%0.0%−0.5pp

Reform UK16.8%0.0%−16.8pp

34 of 49 wards (69%), local results from 5 May 2022 to 9 Jul 2026.

Includes 1 ward shared with a neighbouring constituency.

This is a projection based on recent local election results, not a prediction. Local and general elections can diverge sharply.

York Outer

Updated 14 Oct 2026

Medium confidence

100% coverage

PartyGE 2024ProxySwing

Liberal Democrats10.8%51.1%+40.4pp

Labour45.3%22.7%−22.6pp

Conservative26.9%17.7%−9.2pp

Green4.3%6.0%+1.7pp

Independent0.6%2.1%+1.5pp

Yorkshire Party0.5%0.3%−0.2pp

Reform UK11.6%0.0%n/a

12 of 12 wards (100%), local results from 4 May 2023 to 28 Nov 2024.

This is a projection based on recent local election results, not a prediction. Local and general elections can diverge sharply.

Gainsborough

Updated 14 Oct 2026

Medium confidence

100% coverage

PartyGE 2024ProxySwing

Liberal Democrats10.7%50.0%+39.3pp

Conservative35.6%32.2%−3.4pp

Independent0.0%4.5%n/a

Lincolnshire Independents Lincolnshire First0.0%4.0%n/a

Labour28.1%3.8%−24.3pp

Green3.9%2.4%−1.5pp

WICK IND0.0%1.6%n/a

Reform UK21.2%1.2%−20.1pp

Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition0.0%0.2%n/a

The Liberal Party0.0%0.1%n/a

Social Democratic Party0.4%0.0%n/a

21 of 21 wards (100%), local results from 4 May 2023 to 4 May 2023.

This is a projection based on recent local election results, not a prediction. Local and general elections can diverge sharply.

Boston and Skegness

Updated 14 Oct 2026

Medium confidence

93% coverage

PartyGE 2024ProxySwing

Conservative33.4%32.3%−1.1pp

Boston Independent0.0%28.4%n/a

Independent0.0%9.4%n/a

Skegness urban district society0.0%8.2%n/a

Labour18.9%7.7%−11.1pp

Liberal Democrats3.4%5.9%+2.5pp

Green3.7%2.7%−1.0pp

THORN IND0.0%1.8%n/a

Reform UK38.4%1.8%−36.6pp

Blue Revolution1.0%1.2%+0.3pp

BLUE REV0.0%0.3%n/a

English Democrats1.3%0.2%−1.1pp

26 of 28 wards (93%), local results from 4 May 2023 to 7 May 2026.

This calculation covers only part of the constituency footprint.

This is a projection based on recent local election results, not a prediction. Local and general elections can diverge sharply.

Sheffield, Heeley

Updated 14 Oct 2026

Low confidence

100% coverage

PartyGE 2024ProxySwing

Green15.4%32.4%+17.0pp

Reform UK0.0%29.6%n/a

Labour55.2%19.2%−36.0pp

Liberal Democrats10.0%13.7%+3.6pp

Conservative13.6%3.5%−10.1pp

Independent0.0%0.8%n/a

Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition1.0%0.7%−0.3pp

UK Independence Party (UKIP)0.0%0.1%n/a

Social Democratic Party1.8%0.0%n/a

Workers Party of Britain1.5%0.0%n/a

Party Of Women1.3%0.0%n/a

6 of 6 wards (100%), local results from 7 May 2026 to 7 May 2026.

Includes 1 ward shared with a neighbouring constituency.

This is a projection based on recent local election results, not a prediction. Local and general elections can diverge sharply.

Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr

Updated 14 Oct 2026

Medium confidence

79% coverage

PartyGE 2024ProxySwing

Independent0.0%35.9%+35.9pp

Liberal Democrats15.0%18.6%+3.7pp

Conservative18.0%17.4%−0.6pp

Labour29.4%10.9%−18.5pp

Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales13.1%10.6%−2.5pp

ND0.0%4.5%+4.5pp

Green4.0%2.1%−2.0pp

FREE0.0%0.0%+0.0pp

Reform UK20.6%0.0%−20.6pp

33 of 42 wards (79%), local results from 5 May 2022 to 2 Jul 2026.

This is a projection based on recent local election results, not a prediction. Local and general elections can diverge sharply.

Sheffield South East

Updated 14 Oct 2026

High confidence

83% coverage

PartyGE 2024ProxySwing

Reform UK0.0%39.0%n/a

Liberal Democrats9.6%22.3%+12.7pp

Labour52.3%17.4%−34.9pp

Green8.8%9.6%+0.8pp

Independent4.8%6.9%+2.1pp

Conservative17.5%4.4%−13.1pp

Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition0.0%0.4%n/a

UK Independence Party (UKIP)0.0%0.0%n/a

Social Democratic Party3.0%0.0%n/a

Workers Party of Britain4.1%0.0%n/a

5 of 6 wards (83%), local results from 7 May 2026 to 7 May 2026.

Includes 1 ward shared with a neighbouring constituency.

This is a projection based on recent local election results, not a prediction. Local and general elections can diverge sharply.

Harborough, Oadby and Wigston

Updated 14 Oct 2026

Medium confidence

100% coverage

PartyGE 2024ProxySwing

Liberal Democrats9.4%44.1%+34.8pp

Conservative36.9%40.1%+3.2pp

Green8.5%8.8%+0.3pp

Labour32.2%6.6%−25.6pp

Independent0.0%0.4%n/a

Social Democratic Party0.4%0.0%n/a

Reform UK12.6%0.0%n/a

16 of 16 wards (100%), local results from 4 May 2023 to 18 Dec 2025.

This is a projection based on recent local election results, not a prediction. Local and general elections can diverge sharply.

The terms used on this page

Notional result: An estimate of what a past election would have produced on today's boundaries. A past result recomputed onto a different set of boundaries so that two elections can be compared like for like. An estimate, not a recorded count. Full definition
Swing: How much a party's share of the vote moved between two elections. The change in a party's share of the vote between two comparable contests, measured in percentage points. Full definition
Baseline swing: The same movement measured across the comparator group, for reference. The swing recorded by the same party across the comparator group over the same pair of contests. It stands in for the national or regional tide.
Uniform national swing: The assumption that every area moves by the same amount. The projection method that applies one national swing evenly to every contest. Useful as a baseline; the exceptions to it are the subject of these reports. Full definition

What the report does

For any Westminster constituency, take the most recent local election result in every ward that makes up that seat, even when those wards sit under several different councils, and roll them into a single implied vote share. Compare it with the seat's actual last general election result to show the direction of travel since.

How it's built

1
Define the footprint
List every ward inside the seat, across all the councils involved, for the current boundary vintage.
2
Take the latest result per ward
Councils don't all go to the polls in the same year, so the contributing results will often span several years rather than one clean date.
3
Aggregate up
Combine the ward results into one implied party vote share for the whole seat.
4
Express it as a trend
Set the implied share against the seat's last general election result and show the movement by party.
5
Show the gaps honestly
Where part of the footprint hasn't voted recently, the seat is marked as partial coverage with an as-of date range, and never quietly averaged away.

How to read it (and how not to)

• This is a trend signal, not a forecast. Local votes and Westminster votes are different contests and people vote differently in each.
• Personal popularity and tactical voting can break the read entirely: 'Reform won every ward in Makerfield' did not predict the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral result.
• Where only some of a seat's councils voted recently, the figure covers only part of the seat and says so.
• Northern Ireland seats are not built up from local wards in the same way, so they need their own treatment.

What it reads

• Every ward that falls inside the constituency (a seat is built from whole wards, but routinely spans more than one council. Newark draws on Newark and Sherwood, Bassetlaw and Rushcliffe)
• The most recent local election result in each of those wards
• The constituency's actual result at the last general election
• The date of each contributing ward result, so freshness can be judged

What you get back

• Implied vote share by party for the seat, as of today
• Swing against the last general election result, party by party
• Coverage badge: share of the footprint contributing, and the oldest-to-newest date range behind the figure
• Ward-by-ward breakdown showing exactly which result fed the total
• A refreshed figure after every local round that touches any part of the seat

Readiness

Constituencies held as areas in the dataset
717 seats across the 2010 and 2024 boundary reviews.
Local election results by ward
Already ingested and refreshed after every round.
Ward-to-constituency lookup
The current ward-to-constituency mapping is now connected and versioned.
Constituency records typed correctly
The live calculation resolves all 650 current Westminster constituencies.