Worcestershire: wards that bucked the trend
Worcestershire: in 2021, 98 ward results beat the expected swing and 93 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Powick (-69.7 pts actual vs -1.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Powick | Liberal Democrats | -69.7 pts | -1.2 pts | -68.5 pts |
| 2021 | Croome | Green | +49.1 pts | +3.5 pts | +45.6 pts |
| 2021 | Hallow | Conservative | -26.1 pts | +3.5 pts | -29.5 pts |
| 2021 | Bowbrook | Liberal Democrats | +27.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +28.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bowbrook | Conservative | -21.7 pts | +3.5 pts | -25.1 pts |
| 2021 | St Chads | Conservative | +27.8 pts | +3.5 pts | +24.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove South | Labour | -28.1 pts | -3.9 pts | -24.2 pts |
| 2021 | Evesham South | Green | +24.3 pts | +3.5 pts | +20.9 pts |
| 2021 | Arrow Valley West | Conservative | +23.9 pts | +3.5 pts | +20.4 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Langland | Independent | +24.5 pts | +4.2 pts | +20.3 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Chase | Conservative | -15.8 pts | +3.5 pts | -19.2 pts |
| 2021 | Evesham South | Conservative | -15.1 pts | +3.5 pts | -18.6 pts |
| 2021 | Wythall | Conservative | +22.0 pts | +3.5 pts | +18.5 pts |
| 2021 | Broadway | Conservative | -13.6 pts | +3.5 pts | -17.0 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Link | Conservative | -12.9 pts | +3.5 pts | -16.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove South | Liberal Democrats | +14.9 pts | -1.2 pts | +16.1 pts |
| 2021 | Upton Snodsbury | Conservative | -11.7 pts | +3.5 pts | -15.1 pts |
| 2021 | Gorse Hill and Warndon | Conservative | +18.5 pts | +3.5 pts | +15.0 pts |
| 2021 | Claines | Conservative | -11.5 pts | +3.5 pts | -15.0 pts |
| 2021 | Claines | Liberal Democrats | +13.6 pts | -1.2 pts | +14.8 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove Central | Liberal Democrats | +13.4 pts | -1.2 pts | +14.6 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Chase | Liberal Democrats | +13.3 pts | -1.2 pts | +14.5 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Trinity | Green | +17.9 pts | +3.5 pts | +14.5 pts |
| 2021 | St Chads | Liberal Democrats | -15.3 pts | -1.2 pts | -14.1 pts |
| 2021 | Cookley, Wolverley and Wribbenhall | Conservative | +17.3 pts | +3.5 pts | +13.9 pts |
| 2021 | Arrow Valley West | Labour | -16.8 pts | -3.9 pts | -13.0 pts |
| 2021 | Littletons | Liberal Democrats | -14.1 pts | -1.2 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2021 | St Stephen | Conservative | -8.4 pts | +3.5 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2021 | Upton Snodsbury | Liberal Democrats | +10.1 pts | -1.2 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2021 | Redditch North | Conservative | +14.3 pts | +3.5 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2021 | Bredon | Liberal Democrats | -11.8 pts | -1.2 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2021 | Harvington | Green | +13.9 pts | +3.5 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2021 | St Peter | Conservative | -7.0 pts | +3.5 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2021 | St Johns | Labour | +6.5 pts | -3.9 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2021 | Nunnery | Conservative | +13.7 pts | +3.5 pts | +10.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove Central | Conservative | -6.1 pts | +3.5 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2021 | Clent Hills | Independent | -5.1 pts | +4.2 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2021 | St John | Green | +12.7 pts | +3.5 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove East | Conservative | -5.5 pts | +3.5 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove East | Liberal Democrats | +7.6 pts | -1.2 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2021 | Ombersley | Conservative | -5.3 pts | +3.5 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Langland | Conservative | -5.3 pts | +3.5 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2021 | St Stephen | Labour | +4.8 pts | -3.9 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Trinity | Liberal Democrats | -9.8 pts | -1.2 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2021 | Broadway | Liberal Democrats | +7.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2021 | Droitwich East | Conservative | +11.7 pts | +3.5 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2021 | St Barnabas | Conservative | -4.7 pts | +3.5 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2021 | Evesham North West | Labour | +4.2 pts | -3.9 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2021 | Broadway | Labour | +4.1 pts | -3.9 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2021 | Littletons | Labour | +3.6 pts | -3.9 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2021 | Droitwich West | Labour | +3.4 pts | -3.9 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2021 | Harvington | Labour | +3.2 pts | -3.9 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove South | Conservative | +10.5 pts | +3.5 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2021 | Warndon Parish | Green | +10.4 pts | +3.5 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2021 | Alvechurch | Independent | -2.7 pts | +4.2 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2021 | Croome | Conservative | -3.4 pts | +3.5 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2021 | Beacon | Conservative | -3.4 pts | +3.5 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2021 | St John | Conservative | -3.2 pts | +3.5 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2021 | St Marys | Conservative | +10.0 pts | +3.5 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2021 | St Johns | Conservative | +9.9 pts | +3.5 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2021 | Droitwich East | Liberal Democrats | -7.6 pts | -1.2 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2021 | Stourport-on-Severn | Conservative | +9.8 pts | +3.5 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2021 | Evesham North West | Conservative | +9.8 pts | +3.5 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Beacon | Labour | -10.2 pts | -3.9 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Trinity | Conservative | -2.8 pts | +3.5 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Arrow Valley East | Conservative | +9.7 pts | +3.5 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bewdley | Labour | +2.3 pts | -3.9 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2021 | Ombersley | Labour | +2.3 pts | -3.9 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2021 | Cookley, Wolverley and Wribbenhall | Labour | +2.2 pts | -3.9 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2021 | Tenbury | Conservative | +9.5 pts | +3.5 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Evesham North West | Liberal Democrats | -7.3 pts | -1.2 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Bewdley | Independent | +10.1 pts | +4.2 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2021 | Harvington | Conservative | -2.4 pts | +3.5 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2021 | St Marys | Liberal Democrats | +4.6 pts | -1.2 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2021 | St Peter | Green | +9.2 pts | +3.5 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2021 | Powick | Conservative | -2.2 pts | +3.5 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2021 | Droitwich West | Conservative | +9.1 pts | +3.5 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Langland | Liberal Democrats | -6.7 pts | -1.2 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2021 | Chaddesley | Conservative | +8.9 pts | +3.5 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2021 | Upton Snodsbury | Labour | +1.4 pts | -3.9 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bewdley | Green | +8.6 pts | +3.5 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2021 | Gorse Hill and Warndon | Labour | -8.9 pts | -3.9 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2021 | Chaddesley | Labour | +1.0 pts | -3.9 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Link | Liberal Democrats | -6.0 pts | -1.2 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2021 | St Georges and St Oswald | Liberal Democrats | +3.6 pts | -1.2 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2021 | St Georges and St Oswald | Labour | +0.7 pts | -3.9 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Bredon | Labour | +0.7 pts | -3.9 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2021 | St Georges and St Oswald | Conservative | +8.0 pts | +3.5 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | St Marys | Labour | +0.5 pts | -3.9 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2021 | Tenbury | Green | +7.8 pts | +3.5 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2021 | St Barnabas | Labour | -8.2 pts | -3.9 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bedwardine | Conservative | -0.7 pts | +3.5 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove East | Green | -0.6 pts | +3.5 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2021 | Tenbury | Labour | -8.0 pts | -3.9 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2021 | Rainbow Hill | Labour | +0.2 pts | -3.9 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2021 | Redditch South | Conservative | +7.4 pts | +3.5 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2021 | Nunnery | Labour | -7.8 pts | -3.9 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Riverside | Green | +7.4 pts | +3.5 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2021 | St Marys | Green | +7.3 pts | +3.5 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2021 | Riverside | Conservative | -0.3 pts | +3.5 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2021 | Arrow Valley East | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | -1.2 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Pershore | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +3.5 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove West | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +3.5 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Arrow Valley East | Labour | -7.5 pts | -3.9 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove West | Labour | -0.3 pts | -3.9 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Beacon | Green | -0.1 pts | +3.5 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Wythall | Liberal Democrats | -4.6 pts | -1.2 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Link | Labour | -0.7 pts | -3.9 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Clent Hills | Green | +0.3 pts | +3.5 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Droitwich West | Liberal Democrats | -4.4 pts | -1.2 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2021 | Bowbrook | Labour | -0.7 pts | -3.9 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2021 | Chaddesley | Independent | +1.1 pts | +4.2 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2021 | Clent Hills | Conservative | +6.4 pts | +3.5 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Droitwich East | Labour | -6.8 pts | -3.9 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Cookley, Wolverley and Wribbenhall | Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern | +2.2 pts | -0.7 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Ombersley | Green | +6.3 pts | +3.5 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Beacon | Liberal Democrats | -4.1 pts | -1.2 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Wythall | Green | +0.7 pts | +3.5 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove Central | Green | +0.7 pts | +3.5 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Bredon | Green | +6.1 pts | +3.5 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2021 | St Johns | Liberal Democrats | -3.9 pts | -1.2 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2021 | Clent Hills | Labour | -1.4 pts | -3.9 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Woodvale | Labour | -6.4 pts | -3.9 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove East | Labour | -1.4 pts | -3.9 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Littletons | Conservative | +5.9 pts | +3.5 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bedwardine | Green | +5.7 pts | +3.5 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Chase | Labour | -6.1 pts | -3.9 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Alvechurch | Conservative | +5.6 pts | +3.5 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Arrow Valley West | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | -1.2 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Ombersley | Liberal Democrats | -3.4 pts | -1.2 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Tenbury | Liberal Democrats | -3.3 pts | -1.2 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Redditch North | Labour | -5.9 pts | -3.9 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Hallow | Liberal Democrats | -3.2 pts | -1.2 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Rainbow Hill | Liberal Democrats | +0.7 pts | -1.2 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Alvechurch | Green | +1.6 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Nunnery | Liberal Democrats | -3.1 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2021 | St Peter | Labour | -2.0 pts | -3.9 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove West | Green | +1.6 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Langland | Labour | -2.1 pts | -3.9 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Warndon Parish | Labour | -5.7 pts | -3.9 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2021 | St Chads | Labour | -5.7 pts | -3.9 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2021 | St Stephen | Green | +5.3 pts | +3.5 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Bedwardine | Labour | -2.1 pts | -3.9 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Arrow Valley East | Green | +1.7 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Redditch South | Labour | -2.3 pts | -3.9 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Bredon | Conservative | +5.0 pts | +3.5 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Redditch North | Green | +2.0 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bewdley | Liberal Democrats | -2.6 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Upton Snodsbury | Green | +4.9 pts | +3.5 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Arrow Valley West | Green | +2.1 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Stourport-on-Severn | Liberal Democrats | +0.1 pts | -1.2 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Riverside | Liberal Democrats | -2.5 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2021 | St Barnabas | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | -1.2 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Littletons | Green | +4.6 pts | +3.5 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Redditch North | Liberal Democrats | -2.3 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Gorse Hill and Warndon | Green | +2.4 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Stourport-on-Severn | Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern | +0.4 pts | -0.7 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Warndon Parish | Conservative | +2.4 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2021 | St Barnabas | Green | +4.5 pts | +3.5 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | St Chads | Green | +2.5 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Nunnery | Green | +4.4 pts | +3.5 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove Central | Labour | -4.8 pts | -3.9 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Stourport-on-Severn | Labour | -4.8 pts | -3.9 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Cookley, Wolverley and Wribbenhall | Green | +4.4 pts | +3.5 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Rainbow Hill | Conservative | +2.6 pts | +3.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Rainbow Hill | Green | +4.3 pts | +3.5 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove South | Green | +2.7 pts | +3.5 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Droitwich East | Green | +2.7 pts | +3.5 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Claines | Labour | -3.2 pts | -3.9 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Woodvale | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Warndon Parish | Liberal Democrats | -1.9 pts | -1.2 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2021 | St John | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Claines | Green | +2.9 pts | +3.5 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Stourport-on-Severn | Green | +2.9 pts | +3.5 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Croome | Labour | -3.4 pts | -3.9 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Hallow | Labour | -4.4 pts | -3.9 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | St John | Labour | -4.3 pts | -3.9 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Redditch South | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Pershore | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | -1.2 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2021 | St Johns | Green | +3.0 pts | +3.5 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bedwardine | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Cookley, Wolverley and Wribbenhall | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | -1.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Woodvale | Green | +3.2 pts | +3.5 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Woodvale | Conservative | +3.7 pts | +3.5 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2021 | St Georges and St Oswald | Green | +3.3 pts | +3.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Malvern Trinity | Labour | -3.8 pts | -3.9 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Redditch South | Green | +3.4 pts | +3.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Bewdley | Conservative | +3.4 pts | +3.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Bromsgrove West | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Riverside | Labour | -3.9 pts | -3.9 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2021 | Clent Hills | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | -1.2 pts | -0.0 pts |