Psephology.AI

    Incumbency and re-election rate

    How many sitting councillors stood again, and how many won.

    How it's calculated

    Incumbents standing ÷ seats up; incumbents re-elected ÷ incumbents standing. An incumbent held a seat in the same ward (or its direct predecessor) immediately before this election.

    Worked example

    Heworth May 2023: Claire Douglas and Bob Webb, both elected in 2019, stood again and were re-elected; Ben Burton was new.

    Source: Heworth ward, City of York — by-election of 15 January 2026 and May 2023.

    Caveats

    • Depends on matching the same person across elections. These figures stay unpublished until known duplicate-person problems are resolved.
    • Where Elections Centre handbook flags exist (2021–25) they are used as ground truth.

    Where it's used

    • Council Previews (coming soon)

    Other definitions

    Vote shareChange in shareSwing (two-party, Butler)MajoritySwing needed to gainUncontested seatCandidates per seat / per wardContestation rateWinner's shareEffective number of partiesWinner's bonus (seats vs votes)Women candidates and councillorsTurnout (three methods)Council control and No Overall Control (NOC)Majority at riskPsephology National Share EstimateBy-election vote trackerNotional resultIndex of changeSplit-ticket indicatorNational Equivalent Vote