Psephology National Share Estimate
Our estimate of how Great Britain would have voted if everyone voted as they did in this year's local elections.
How it's calculated
For every ward fought this May on the same boundaries as last time, take each party's share change; average across wards (equal weight); add the average to the party's estimate for the year those wards were last fought, chained back to the GB general-election share. Published each year with the number of wards used.
Worked example
Figures will appear once the national share series is loaded.
Caveats
- Not the BBC's Projected National Share and not the Elections Centre's National Equivalent Vote; their published figure is shown alongside ours as a benchmark.
Where it's used
- By-election Vote Tracker (coming soon)
- May Seat Projection (coming soon)
Other definitions
Vote shareChange in shareSwing (two-party, Butler)MajoritySwing needed to gainUncontested seatCandidates per seat / per wardContestation rateWinner's shareEffective number of partiesWinner's bonus (seats vs votes)Incumbency and re-election rateWomen candidates and councillorsTurnout (three methods)Council control and No Overall Control (NOC)Majority at riskBy-election vote trackerNotional resultIndex of changeSplit-ticket indicatorNational Equivalent Vote