Notional result
An estimate of how the previous election would have gone on new boundaries.
How it's calculated
Previous results are reallocated to the new wards in proportion to where their electors came from. Always labelled "notional" and never mixed with real results without a marker.
Worked example
Worked examples will appear once notional results are loaded.
Where it's used
- Notional Results (coming soon)
Other definitions
Vote shareChange in shareSwing (two-party, Butler)MajoritySwing needed to gainUncontested seatCandidates per seat / per wardContestation rateWinner's shareEffective number of partiesWinner's bonus (seats vs votes)Incumbency and re-election rateWomen candidates and councillorsTurnout (three methods)Council control and No Overall Control (NOC)Majority at riskPsephology National Share EstimateBy-election vote trackerIndex of changeSplit-ticket indicatorNational Equivalent Vote