Psephology.AI

    Winner's bonus (seats vs votes)

    How much first-past-the-post over- or under-rewards a party.

    How it's calculated

    Party seat share minus party vote share, at council level, in pp.

    Worked example

    Heworth May 2023: Labour won 100% of the 3 seats on 64.3% of the vote, a ward-level bonus of 35.7pp. Council-level figures appear once composition data is loaded.

    Source: Heworth ward, City of York — by-election of 15 January 2026 and May 2023.

    Caveats

    • Most meaningful across a whole council, not a single ward.

    Where it's used

    Other definitions

    Vote shareChange in shareSwing (two-party, Butler)MajoritySwing needed to gainUncontested seatCandidates per seat / per wardContestation rateWinner's shareEffective number of partiesIncumbency and re-election rateWomen candidates and councillorsTurnout (three methods)Council control and No Overall Control (NOC)Majority at riskPsephology National Share EstimateBy-election vote trackerNotional resultIndex of changeSplit-ticket indicatorNational Equivalent Vote