National Equivalent Vote
An estimate of each party's share if the whole of Great Britain had voted in that May's local elections, not just the councils that held elections.
How it's calculated
Use each party's best-placed candidate per ward. For wards that voted, compare with the last time the same ward voted (within five years) and average the change by region. Wards that did not vote take their last result plus their region's change. Parties that stood in at least a quarter of voting wards are carried into the rest; local parties stay local. Each ward is weighted by votes cast.
Worked example
See the estimate beside the Elections Centre figure on each May Handbook year page.
Caveats
- An estimate, not a count — it assumes places that didn't vote moved like nearby places that did.
- Less reliable in years where our ward records are incomplete.
- Professional estimates (Elections Centre, BBC) use different adjustments, so small differences are expected.
Where it's used
Other definitions
Vote shareChange in shareSwing (two-party, Butler)MajoritySwing needed to gainUncontested seatCandidates per seat / per wardContestation rateWinner's shareEffective number of partiesWinner's bonus (seats vs votes)Incumbency and re-election rateWomen candidates and councillorsTurnout (three methods)Council control and No Overall Control (NOC)Majority at riskPsephology National Share EstimateBy-election vote trackerNotional resultIndex of changeSplit-ticket indicator